Lindy Effect 101

With Bitcoin's return to the spotlight, debates on its long-term viability are raging. Its proponents contend @nntaleb's Lindy Effect says the technology is here to stay.

But what is the "Lindy Effect" and how does it work?

Here's Lindy Effect 101!

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The Feynman Technique is a foundational mental model for unlocking growth in your career, startup, business, or writing.

A thread on how it works and how it can change your life...

Richard Feynman was an American theoretical physicist.

He won the Nobel Prize in Physics in 1965 for his groundbreaking work in quantum electrodynamics.

Feynman's true genius, however, was in his ability to convey extremely complex ideas in simple, digestible ways.

Richard Feynman observed that complexity and jargon are often used to mask a lack of deep understanding.

The Feynman Technique is a learning framework that forces you to strip away needless complexity and develop a deep, elegant understanding of a given topic.

The Feynman Technique involves four key steps:

(1) Identify
(2) ELI5 ("Explain It To Me Like I'm 5")
(3) Reflect & Study
(4) Organize, Convey & Review

Let's cover each step and how you can make this powerful framework work for you...

Step 1: Identify

What is the topic you want to learn more about?

Identify the topic and write down everything you know about it.

Read and research the topic and write down all of your new learnings (and the sources of each).

This first step sets the stage for what is to come.

Warren Buffett is a treasure trove of wisdom.

But contrary to what you have been told, most of it has nothing to do with investing.

10 powerful lessons for life from the Oracle of Omaha:

Wait For A Juicy Pitch

“You don't have to swing at everything - you can wait for your pitch."

Life doesn’t reward you for the number of swings you take.

Focus on identifying the juiciest pitch.

When it comes, swing hard and don’t miss it.

Just Stop Digging

“The most important thing to do if you find yourself in a hole is to stop digging."

When things aren’t working, change course and try something different.

Be nimble. Be agile.

When you find yourself at the bottom of a hole, stop digging and climb out of it.

Exploit Disconnects

“Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.”

Seek out situations where there is a clear disconnect between price and value.

This applies to investing, but it’s more broadly a mental model for life.

Identify disconnects. Exploit them to your advantage.

Be Contrarian

“Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.”

Following the crowd is easy, but it can be a trap.

Learn to think independently. Come to your own decisions. Develop your own mental models.

Your unique perspectives are your superpower.

How to Win (without talent or luck):

Operate in Your Zone of Genius

Your Zone of Genius is where your interests, passions and skills align.

Operating in your Zone of Genius means playing games you are uniquely well-suited to win.

Once you identify it, you can stop playing *their* games and start playing *yours*.

Adopt a Positive Sum Mentality

Want to get ahead in life? Start genuinely rooting for others to succeed.

When one of us wins, we all win—winning spreads.

If you adopt that mentality, you’ll become a magnet for the highest quality people.

Speak Up

Closed mouths don’t get fed.

A little push goes a long way. Don't sit back and wait for good things to happen.

If you want something—and you’ve put in the work for it—ask for it.

Worst case: you’re told no and nothing has changed.

Best case: it’s yours.

Play Long-Term Games

Life is the ultimate long game.

Those with low time preference play it more effectively—they happily delay gratification to allow compounding to work its magic.

In a world of people seeking instant gratification, this is a meaningful edge.

A “razor” is a rule of thumb that simplifies decision making.

The most powerful razors I’ve found:

The Feynman Razor

Complexity and jargon are used to mask a lack of deep understanding.

If you can’t explain it to a 5-year-old, you don’t really understand it.

If someone uses a lot of complexity and jargon to explain something, they probably don’t understand it.

The Luck Razor

When choosing between two paths, choose the path that has a larger luck surface area.

Your actions put you in a position where luck is more likely to strike.

It’s hard to get lucky watching TV at home—it’s easy to get lucky when you’re engaging and learning.

The Arena Razor

When faced with two paths, choose the path that puts you in the arena.

It's easy to throw rocks from the sidelines.

It's scary and lonely in the arena—but it's where growth happens.

Once you're in the arena, never take advice from people on the sidelines.

The Optimist Razor

When choosing who to spend time with, prioritize spending more time with optimists.

Pessimists see closed doors. Optimists see open doors—and probably kick down the closed doors along the way.

Remember: Pessimists sound smart, optimists get rich.

10 common errors in reasoning that undermine arguments:

Ad Hominem

Latin phrase for "to the person”—an attack of the individual rather than the argument.

Instead of addressing the argument and its merits, the offender attempts to refute the opposition on the basis of personal characteristics.

All-too-common in political debates.

The Sharpshooter

A man fires a gun at a barn wall and then paints a target around the tightest cluster of bullet holes to create the appearance of accuracy.

The offender selects and highlights evidence that supports the conclusion—while ignoring evidence that may refute it.

The Sunk Cost Fallacy

Sunk costs are economic costs already invested in an activity that cannot be recovered.

The fallacy is found in thinking that you should continue on the basis of all that you've put in—with no regard for future costs or likelihood of ultimate success.

The Red Herring

The kippered herring was a smelly fish used to distract hunting dogs while training them to focus on a scent.

"Red herring" is now synonymous with distraction.

The offender distracts from the argument with a seemingly related—but actually unrelated—point.

1/29 #Bitcoin thread, updated version

We’ve doubled since the last time I updated this thread, so I thought it would be of some value to update it. Feeling insecure about price action? Too enthusiastic/scared? Maybe this helps a bit, go check it out!

TLDR at 27-29
Let’s go!🔥

2/ 2 Year MA Multiplier
This indicator uses the 2Y MA. Green line is the 2Y MA, red is the same MA x5

2ya MA multiplier is rising and at ~48k rn. Price goes parabolic. I would personally love to get a decent correction, would give more space for growth long term imho.

3/ Relative Unrealized P/L
Paper p/l in $Btc. Use it to track investor sentiment.
Market is overheating, everybody is in paper profits, but as you can see “we” as a whole take too less profit. We can stay around greed for a whole year, but a correction at this point makes sense

4/ 200 Week MA Heatmap
#Bitcoin likes to bottom out near the 200W MA
Colors are attached to % increase of MA
Blue/purple = Buying opportunity
Orange/red = TP opportunity
The bigger the distraction, the more parabolic price goes, simply said
First green coming(?) Room for growth

5/ MVRV Z-score.
To identify periods when $Btc is extremely under/overvalued.

Green= MV unusually far below RV, buying opp
Red=MV unusually high above RV, TP opp.

Now: heating up. Correction first to cool it off plz :)
Nice uptick in realized value.

@VentureCoinist @HypeBillion @MycolePawket If the whole world settled on one stablecoin, I'd agree with you. But stablecoins are always going to be tied to jurisdictions and counter-parties too. So it is unlikely one winner will emerge.

@HypeBillion @MycolePawket Today, one of the roles of the dollar is acting as an intermediary or bridge between currencies. For that role, its tie to the US jurisdiction is both an advantage and a disadvantage. Better US than a worse jurisdiction, but a pure digital asset is better still.

@HypeBillion @MycolePawket Imagine a future (maybe not so far off) where everything is tokenized and you can have your salary agreed in dollars but gold gets delivered to your wallet and you can buy groceries by selling tokenized shares of a REIT.

@HypeBillion @MycolePawket In that world, there will need to be concentrations of liquidity. You can't go from gold to shares of an obscure REIT by finding people who want to go those same shares to gold. The liquidity-concentrating asset likely can't be one country's currency. How could that be universal?

@HypeBillion @MycolePawket So, sure, if you get paid in dollars and pay your bills in dollars, it may make sense for you to use a dollar-denominated stablecoin for short-term holdings and payments. Absolutely.

Slow and steady wins the race

Bitcoin is often critized for being slow in everything

But here is the thing: the more you complicate a design early on, the more you push it down a specific road

Get your assumptions wrong, and it's off-road

Thread/

This might take a few tweets to get out.
1/ The ICO boom in 2017 and the altszn in early 2018 were unique in that crypto was a largely unregulated space where countless fools were getting lucky on the bad luck of greater fools. This was largely fueled by Ethereum and the ability

2/ to create tokens and contracts from thin air but it got thrust from the post halving BTC bull market and the unique phenomenon of 'crypto kitties' which were both like booster rockets and drew huge media attention to the entire crypto space

3/ Crypto wasn't new in 2017-18 but it was new to most of the people who were seeing it on the evening news, CNBC, etc. Seeing construction workers buying new trucks with crypto riches and idiotic crypto-rich in lambos and moving to Puerto Rico -

4/ - these images captivated lots of people and inspired the idea of 'I missed out before, I don't want to miss out this time' in relation to stocks, internet, tech, real estate, and more. The important ingredient was 'If those people can do it, I can do it'

5/ The inclusion of a character like John McAfee and the entire ICO industry created a greedy free for all where for every good project there were fifty worthless ones - but sometimes, a diamond emerged from the shit

Here's my 2021 Crypto Strategy:

Note: Not a financial advice. It is just my opinion after doing my own research (#DYOR). I'm a complete newbie btw.

1. Dollar-Cost-Averaging (DCA) for these 6 coins (HODL)
- Bitcoin (BTC)
- Ethereum (ETH)
- Polka Dot (DOT)
- Cardano (ADA)
- Binance (BNB)
- Litecoin (LTC)

I choose these 6 bcs they are all TOP 10 Coins, they have the biggest market cap which means less risky than other coins.

DCA means I'm going to topup for all of these coins everytime ada duit lebih/dapat gaji.

But I will only buy when price dip / during correction

How to know when price dipped?

I use TradingView (free version) - guna RMI and Stoch indicator, if it touches the lower line it means it have been oversold - under 4h timeframe (because I'm a long term investor). This is to avoid buying at the top.

For example:

This is Bitcoin on TradingView. Under 4h Timeframe, indicator RMI & Stoch. I'll buy when RMI and Stoch touches the lower line. Boleh nampak lepas buy at dip, the price terus naik.