The Lindy Effect is a theory that the future life expectancy of specific non-perishable items, like a technology or idea, is proportional to their age.
Put simply, the longer it has already lasted, the higher the likelihood it will continue to last.
Lindy Effect 101
With Bitcoin's return to the spotlight, debates on its long-term viability are raging. Its proponents contend @nntaleb's Lindy Effect says the technology is here to stay.
But what is the "Lindy Effect" and how does it work?
Here's Lindy Effect 101!
👇👇👇
The Lindy Effect is a theory that the future life expectancy of specific non-perishable items, like a technology or idea, is proportional to their age.
Put simply, the longer it has already lasted, the higher the likelihood it will continue to last.
While author Albert Goldman used the term "Lindy's Law" in a 1964 article, it was mathematician Benoit Mandlebrot who moved the dialogue towards the current definition.
The longer he lasted, the longer he would continue to last.
He noted the Lindy Effect with books - the longer a book has been in print, the longer it is likely to survive.
With no natural upper bound, power laws come into play.
What are some useful applications of the Lindy Effect in helping you understand the world?
Given its recent rise and accelerating mainstream adoption, let's look at Bitcoin and how the Lindy Effect may apply.
The Bitcoin Genesis Block was created in January 2009 and it has continued to survive in the nearly 12 years since that date.
It has withstood technological and societal attacks.
The Lindy effect says the fact that Bitcoin has survived this long makes it likely to survive much longer. https://t.co/2MRgHzP9Dy
In 1637, the Dutch Republic erupted into a speculative fever over an unlikely item...the tulip.
— Sahil Bloom (@SahilBloom) November 9, 2020
Tulip Mania has become a legend synonymous with market euphoria and bubbles. But is this tale all it's cracked up to be?
Who's up for a story?
\U0001f447\U0001f447\U0001f447 pic.twitter.com/cvYHoTZgdf
That was Lindy Effect 101. I hope you found it useful.
And special thank you to my friend @GavinBaker for the thread idea!
1/ An Allegory of Finance
— Sahil Bloom (@SahilBloom) July 18, 2020
I have been posting a lot of educational (and humorous!) threads on finance, money, and economics.
My mission is simple: to demystify these concepts and make them accessible to everyone.
All of the threads can be found below. Enjoy and please share!
More from Sahil Bloom
THREAD: With #silversqueeze trending on Twitter, it appears that this week's market spectacle may well be in the silver market.
A perfect moment for a thread on the Hunt Brothers and their alleged attempt to corner the silver market...
1/ First, let's set the stage.
The Hunt Brothers - Nelson Bunker Hunt, William Herbert Hunt, and Lamar Hunt - were the sons of Texas tycoon H.L. Hunt.
H.L. Hunt had amassed a billion-dollar fortune in the oil industry.
He died in 1974 and left that fortune to his family.
2/ After H.L.'s passing, the Hunt Brothers had taken over the family holdings and successfully managed to expand the Hunt empire.
By the late 1970s, the family's fortune was estimated to be ~$5 billion.
In the financial world, the Hunt name was as good as gold (or silver!).
3/ But the 1970s were a turbulent time in America.
Following the oil crisis of the early 1970s, the U.S. had entered a period of stagflation - a dire macroeconomic condition characterized by high inflation, low growth, and high unemployment.
4/ The Hunt Brothers - particularly Nelson Bunker and William Herbert - believed that the inflationary environment would persist and destroy the value of their family's holdings.
To hedge this risk, they turned to silver.
They began buying the metal at ~$3 per ounce in 1973.
A perfect moment for a thread on the Hunt Brothers and their alleged attempt to corner the silver market...
1/ First, let's set the stage.
The Hunt Brothers - Nelson Bunker Hunt, William Herbert Hunt, and Lamar Hunt - were the sons of Texas tycoon H.L. Hunt.
H.L. Hunt had amassed a billion-dollar fortune in the oil industry.
He died in 1974 and left that fortune to his family.
2/ After H.L.'s passing, the Hunt Brothers had taken over the family holdings and successfully managed to expand the Hunt empire.
By the late 1970s, the family's fortune was estimated to be ~$5 billion.
In the financial world, the Hunt name was as good as gold (or silver!).
3/ But the 1970s were a turbulent time in America.
Following the oil crisis of the early 1970s, the U.S. had entered a period of stagflation - a dire macroeconomic condition characterized by high inflation, low growth, and high unemployment.
Stagflation 101
— Sahil Bloom (@SahilBloom) September 2, 2020
The term "stagflation" is used frequently in discussions of monetary policy and risks in the post-COVID world.
But what is stagflation and how does it work?
Here's Stagflation 101!
\U0001f447\U0001f447\U0001f447 pic.twitter.com/at4FmaCmkM
4/ The Hunt Brothers - particularly Nelson Bunker and William Herbert - believed that the inflationary environment would persist and destroy the value of their family's holdings.
To hedge this risk, they turned to silver.
They began buying the metal at ~$3 per ounce in 1973.
Lifelong learning is a competitive advantage.
But contrary to what you’ve been told, lifelong learners are built, not born.
THREAD: 20 lifelong learning habits you can start developing today.
Stimulate Dynamically
The mind is a muscle - it needs to be stimulated dynamically to continue to grow.
Don’t rely on one “exercise” - develop a menu of options.
Write, read, listen, watch. Solve puzzles, play games. Enjoy it!
Stimulate dynamically, learn dynamically.
Build Learning Circles
The most powerful learning is communal, not individual.
Build learning circles with other intellectually curious minds.
Engage regularly with no set intention or goal.
Community is everything. Embrace it.
Keep Asking Why
“Why?” is the most useful tool in our learning toolkit.
But somewhere along the line, we are told to stop asking why and just accept “facts” as we are told them.
Reject the norm.
If you want to understand the world, take a cue from our kids - keep asking why!
Adopt a Process Orientation
Prioritize process.
Learn for the sake of learning, not always for a specific goal.
When you prioritize process, you become flexible in where you are headed.
Life is a winding, confusing journey - forward progress is all that matters.
But contrary to what you’ve been told, lifelong learners are built, not born.
THREAD: 20 lifelong learning habits you can start developing today.
Stimulate Dynamically
The mind is a muscle - it needs to be stimulated dynamically to continue to grow.
Don’t rely on one “exercise” - develop a menu of options.
Write, read, listen, watch. Solve puzzles, play games. Enjoy it!
Stimulate dynamically, learn dynamically.
Build Learning Circles
The most powerful learning is communal, not individual.
Build learning circles with other intellectually curious minds.
Engage regularly with no set intention or goal.
Community is everything. Embrace it.
Keep Asking Why
“Why?” is the most useful tool in our learning toolkit.
But somewhere along the line, we are told to stop asking why and just accept “facts” as we are told them.
Reject the norm.
If you want to understand the world, take a cue from our kids - keep asking why!
First principles thinking is a powerful mental model for driving non-linear outcomes. It also requires a willingness to ask difficult, uncomfortable questions.
— Sahil Bloom (@SahilBloom) March 14, 2021
Here are a few to help you get started: pic.twitter.com/KyuAr7IUf7
Adopt a Process Orientation
Prioritize process.
Learn for the sake of learning, not always for a specific goal.
When you prioritize process, you become flexible in where you are headed.
Life is a winding, confusing journey - forward progress is all that matters.
More from Crypto
1/ Welcome to #DeFi Wednesday.
Let's talk about how interest-bearing cash on a blockchain is going to revolutionise boring corporate treasury management that concerns every company is is a larger business than all crypto trading in the world.
Enter the thread
👇👇👇
2/ Blockchain community is often seen as toxic maxis and redditors who shill other their weekly favourite shitcoin in the hope of getting Lambo.
Sometimes we also do things that progress humanity towards the better future and interest-bearing cash is one of those things.
3/ Less chad and more things that actually matter:
My incomplete theory of interest-bearing cash is also available also as a blog post:
https://t.co/uiG0fZiVyu
It is 15 pages. Pick your slow poison or die fast by continue reading here.
4/ First time in the history we have an ability to create interest-bearing cash-like instruments.
Interest-bearing cash ticks up dollar (euro) balance real-time in your wallet.
Here is a demonstration using @aaveaave aDAI, based on @makerdao DAI, and @TrustWalletApp
5/ Interest-bearing cash is not like your bank's saving account. Your money in a bank is not yours, but bank's. There are some flaws in the current banking system causing a headache for Chief Financial Officers (CFOs)
Let's talk about how interest-bearing cash on a blockchain is going to revolutionise boring corporate treasury management that concerns every company is is a larger business than all crypto trading in the world.
Enter the thread
👇👇👇
2/ Blockchain community is often seen as toxic maxis and redditors who shill other their weekly favourite shitcoin in the hope of getting Lambo.
Sometimes we also do things that progress humanity towards the better future and interest-bearing cash is one of those things.
3/ Less chad and more things that actually matter:
My incomplete theory of interest-bearing cash is also available also as a blog post:
https://t.co/uiG0fZiVyu
It is 15 pages. Pick your slow poison or die fast by continue reading here.
4/ First time in the history we have an ability to create interest-bearing cash-like instruments.
Interest-bearing cash ticks up dollar (euro) balance real-time in your wallet.
Here is a demonstration using @aaveaave aDAI, based on @makerdao DAI, and @TrustWalletApp
5/ Interest-bearing cash is not like your bank's saving account. Your money in a bank is not yours, but bank's. There are some flaws in the current banking system causing a headache for Chief Financial Officers (CFOs)
0/ The Great Crypto Reversal
Key difference between the '17 and roaring 20s in crypto is that back then everyone was aping a16z and Naval.
Today everyone apes 3AC wanting to be the next Degen.
'17 was an idealistic *saving the world* kind of thing
20s is *me against the world*
1/ The financialization of crypto means more volatility but pretty long ascend to the top.
Multi-year bull and an ATH surprising even to the biggest bulls as the infinite Cantillon "wealth" is pumped into crypto
Crypto becomes the ultimate Cantillon insider circle-jerk.
2/ This will be one the most iconic ideological reversals in history, comparable to Google who was firmly against advertising but turned into the most powerful ad company ever.
3/ This scenario reminds me of the 90s privatization period in the post-socialist countries.
The regime transition allowed the communist party elite to benefit from the wild west form of "capitalism" that ensued, transferring (and multiplying) their wealth into the new regime.
4/ We are far from Satoshi's original vision . But words and intentions of *prophets* were used to manipulate and corrupt all throughout human history and this time it is no
Key difference between the '17 and roaring 20s in crypto is that back then everyone was aping a16z and Naval.
Today everyone apes 3AC wanting to be the next Degen.
'17 was an idealistic *saving the world* kind of thing
20s is *me against the world*
1/ The financialization of crypto means more volatility but pretty long ascend to the top.
Multi-year bull and an ATH surprising even to the biggest bulls as the infinite Cantillon "wealth" is pumped into crypto
Crypto becomes the ultimate Cantillon insider circle-jerk.
2/ This will be one the most iconic ideological reversals in history, comparable to Google who was firmly against advertising but turned into the most powerful ad company ever.
3/ This scenario reminds me of the 90s privatization period in the post-socialist countries.
The regime transition allowed the communist party elite to benefit from the wild west form of "capitalism" that ensued, transferring (and multiplying) their wealth into the new regime.
4/ We are far from Satoshi's original vision . But words and intentions of *prophets* were used to manipulate and corrupt all throughout human history and this time it is no
At "forever" Cantillon insiders are infinitely wealthy. Everybody else lives in pods & eats what the livestock eats, or joins the harem or household staff of an infinitaire.
— Nick Szabo (@NickSzabo4) January 21, 2020
Back with another #FreeLoveFriday. Last time, we covered how Mastercoin/@Omni_Layer pioneered digital asset issuance on blockchains. Today, let’s discuss @Chainlink and the vital role it plays in connecting blockchains to the real world.
I have said repeatedly that digital asset issuance is the killer application for blockchains. The next frontier is bringing real world assets to networks like @AvalancheAVAX, but we often face a significant problem:
Namely, how do you get data from the real world onto blockchains and into applications running on them? More critically, how do you achieve that securely and transparently in real-time? Smart contracts are tamper-proof, but they're only as reliable as their input data.
Enter ChainLink in September 2017, with a whitepaper outlining a vision for a decentralized network of “oracles,” entities that inject facts from the external world into blockchains in a suitable format for smart contracts.
Until ChainLink, oracles were trusted and centralized. This is a huge problem for high-value assets and smart contracts. High value projects, such as @CelsiusNetwork, @synthetix_io, @Aaveaave and others depend critically on oracle data.
Back with another #FreeLoveFriday. My first thread focused on what I love about Bitcoin, and features we borrowed for @AvalancheAVAX. Today, let's focus on @Omni_Layer, or as OGs knew it, Mastercoin https://t.co/fXFgmaeUEz
— Emin G\xfcn Sirer (@el33th4xor) January 15, 2021
I have said repeatedly that digital asset issuance is the killer application for blockchains. The next frontier is bringing real world assets to networks like @AvalancheAVAX, but we often face a significant problem:
Namely, how do you get data from the real world onto blockchains and into applications running on them? More critically, how do you achieve that securely and transparently in real-time? Smart contracts are tamper-proof, but they're only as reliable as their input data.
Enter ChainLink in September 2017, with a whitepaper outlining a vision for a decentralized network of “oracles,” entities that inject facts from the external world into blockchains in a suitable format for smart contracts.
Until ChainLink, oracles were trusted and centralized. This is a huge problem for high-value assets and smart contracts. High value projects, such as @CelsiusNetwork, @synthetix_io, @Aaveaave and others depend critically on oracle data.
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Following @BAUDEGS I have experienced hateful and propagandist tweets time after time. I have been shocked that an academic community would be so reckless with their publications. So I did some research.
The question is:
Is this an official account for Bahcesehir Uni (Bau)?
Bahcesehir Uni, BAU has an official website https://t.co/ztzX6uj34V which links to their social media, leading to their Twitter account @Bahcesehir
BAU’s official Twitter account
BAU has many departments, which all have separate accounts. Nowhere among them did I find @BAUDEGS
@BAUOrganization @ApplyBAU @adayBAU @BAUAlumniCenter @bahcesehirfbe @baufens @CyprusBau @bauiisbf @bauglobal @bahcesehirebe @BAUintBatumi @BAUiletisim @BAUSaglik @bauebf @TIPBAU
Nowhere among them was @BAUDEGS to find
The question is:
Is this an official account for Bahcesehir Uni (Bau)?
Bahcesehir Uni, BAU has an official website https://t.co/ztzX6uj34V which links to their social media, leading to their Twitter account @Bahcesehir
BAU’s official Twitter account
BAU has many departments, which all have separate accounts. Nowhere among them did I find @BAUDEGS
@BAUOrganization @ApplyBAU @adayBAU @BAUAlumniCenter @bahcesehirfbe @baufens @CyprusBau @bauiisbf @bauglobal @bahcesehirebe @BAUintBatumi @BAUiletisim @BAUSaglik @bauebf @TIPBAU
Nowhere among them was @BAUDEGS to find
