The Lindy Effect is a theory that the future life expectancy of specific non-perishable items, like a technology or idea, is proportional to their age.
Put simply, the longer it has already lasted, the higher the likelihood it will continue to last.
Lindy Effect 101
With Bitcoin's return to the spotlight, debates on its long-term viability are raging. Its proponents contend @nntaleb's Lindy Effect says the technology is here to stay.
But what is the "Lindy Effect" and how does it work?
Here's Lindy Effect 101!
👇👇👇
The Lindy Effect is a theory that the future life expectancy of specific non-perishable items, like a technology or idea, is proportional to their age.
Put simply, the longer it has already lasted, the higher the likelihood it will continue to last.
While author Albert Goldman used the term "Lindy's Law" in a 1964 article, it was mathematician Benoit Mandlebrot who moved the dialogue towards the current definition.
The longer he lasted, the longer he would continue to last.
He noted the Lindy Effect with books - the longer a book has been in print, the longer it is likely to survive.
With no natural upper bound, power laws come into play.
What are some useful applications of the Lindy Effect in helping you understand the world?
Given its recent rise and accelerating mainstream adoption, let's look at Bitcoin and how the Lindy Effect may apply.
The Bitcoin Genesis Block was created in January 2009 and it has continued to survive in the nearly 12 years since that date.
It has withstood technological and societal attacks.
The Lindy effect says the fact that Bitcoin has survived this long makes it likely to survive much longer. https://t.co/2MRgHzP9Dy
In 1637, the Dutch Republic erupted into a speculative fever over an unlikely item...the tulip.
— Sahil Bloom (@SahilBloom) November 9, 2020
Tulip Mania has become a legend synonymous with market euphoria and bubbles. But is this tale all it's cracked up to be?
Who's up for a story?
\U0001f447\U0001f447\U0001f447 pic.twitter.com/cvYHoTZgdf
That was Lindy Effect 101. I hope you found it useful.
And special thank you to my friend @GavinBaker for the thread idea!
1/ An Allegory of Finance
— Sahil Bloom (@SahilBloom) July 18, 2020
I have been posting a lot of educational (and humorous!) threads on finance, money, and economics.
My mission is simple: to demystify these concepts and make them accessible to everyone.
All of the threads can be found below. Enjoy and please share!
More from Sahil Bloom
From a young age, we are taught to view the world as black and white.
But many of life’s most important truths appear contradictory on the surface.
THREAD: 15 powerful paradoxes (on growth, business, careers, and life):
Sprezzatura (“Studied Carelessness”)
You have to put in more effort to make something appear effortless.
Effortless, elegant performances are often the result of a large volume of effortful, gritty practice.
Simple is not simple.
Slow Down to Speed Up
Want to speed up? Try slowing down.
Slowing down gives you the time to be deliberate with your actions.
You can focus, gather energy, and deploy your resources more efficiently.
It allows you to focus on leverage and ROI.
Move slow to move fast.
Learn More to Know Less
The wisdom paradox - the more you learn, the more you are exposed to the immense unknown.
This should be empowering, not frightening.
“The more I learn, the more I realize how much I don't know.” - Albert Einstein
Embrace lifelong learning.
Shrink to Grow
Growth is never linear.
In order to grow, sometimes you need to shrink.
Shedding deadweight may feel like a step back, but it is a necessity for long-term growth.
This principle applies to your career, startup, or life.
One step back for two steps forward.
But many of life’s most important truths appear contradictory on the surface.
THREAD: 15 powerful paradoxes (on growth, business, careers, and life):
Sprezzatura (“Studied Carelessness”)
You have to put in more effort to make something appear effortless.
Effortless, elegant performances are often the result of a large volume of effortful, gritty practice.
Simple is not simple.
Slow Down to Speed Up
Want to speed up? Try slowing down.
Slowing down gives you the time to be deliberate with your actions.
You can focus, gather energy, and deploy your resources more efficiently.
It allows you to focus on leverage and ROI.
Move slow to move fast.
Learn More to Know Less
The wisdom paradox - the more you learn, the more you are exposed to the immense unknown.
This should be empowering, not frightening.
“The more I learn, the more I realize how much I don't know.” - Albert Einstein
Embrace lifelong learning.
Lifelong learning is a competitive advantage.
— Sahil Bloom (@SahilBloom) June 6, 2021
But contrary to what you\u2019ve been told, lifelong learners are built, not born.
THREAD: 20 lifelong learning habits you can start developing today.
Shrink to Grow
Growth is never linear.
In order to grow, sometimes you need to shrink.
Shedding deadweight may feel like a step back, but it is a necessity for long-term growth.
This principle applies to your career, startup, or life.
One step back for two steps forward.
More from Crypto
Michael Pettis @michaelxpettis argues that it is not always obvious who (China or the U.S.) adjusts best to "turbulent changes."
Bitcoin answers that question.
Thread:
World economies currently suffer four major redistribution challenges:
The most important is increasing government stealth use of the monetary system to confiscate assets from productive actors.
/2
That process is exacerbated by "Cantillon Effect" transfers to interest groups close to government ("the entitled class," public sector workers, the medical industrial complex, academia, etc....), which is destroying much of that wealth /3
The shadow nature (see Keynes) of government inflation makes the process unidentifiable, un-addressable and undemocratic.
The biggest victims (America's poorly educated young) are unequipped to counter generational confiscation tactics of today's wily senior beneficiaries. /4
Government control of the numéraire in key economic statistics (GDP, inflation, etc...) makes it impossible for economic actors to measure progress and liabilities. /5
Bitcoin answers that question.
Thread:
1/11
— Michael Pettis (@michaelxpettis) January 11, 2021
An article worth thinking about: \u201cAs changes to the world structure accelerate, China\u2019s rule is in sharp contrast with the turmoil in the West,\u201d says Beijing.
I agree, but I draw a different conclusion. The world is certainly currently going...https://t.co/ugha7ygqqx
World economies currently suffer four major redistribution challenges:
The most important is increasing government stealth use of the monetary system to confiscate assets from productive actors.
/2
That process is exacerbated by "Cantillon Effect" transfers to interest groups close to government ("the entitled class," public sector workers, the medical industrial complex, academia, etc....), which is destroying much of that wealth /3
The shadow nature (see Keynes) of government inflation makes the process unidentifiable, un-addressable and undemocratic.
The biggest victims (America's poorly educated young) are unequipped to counter generational confiscation tactics of today's wily senior beneficiaries. /4
Government control of the numéraire in key economic statistics (GDP, inflation, etc...) makes it impossible for economic actors to measure progress and liabilities. /5
