Leveraging The TIE’s Crypto SigDev™ feed we set out to identify whether news moved the crypto market and what, if any, impact sentiment had following key announcements.
SigDevs are news on token updates or major events (like M&A and Listings).
1/
So what actually moves the prices of cryptocurrencies? We spent over a month parsing through data to answer that question for you 👀👀
Special thanks to @eToroUS for partnering with us on this research
A thread:
Leveraging The TIE’s Crypto SigDev™ feed we set out to identify whether news moved the crypto market and what, if any, impact sentiment had following key announcements.
SigDevs are news on token updates or major events (like M&A and Listings).
Looking at maximum price increases within 24 hours after different SigDev announcements, we see that certain announcements tend to procure more responses than others. These are ordered from left to right in order of increasing average positive effect on price.
These initial results are intuitive: one would expect 51% attacks — a negative assault on a blockchain — to not typically have a positive effect on price, while getting listed on a new exchange (“Listing”) increases demand for a cryptocurrency and thus should increase value
Although Listings and Partnerships have an immediate large influence on price, it does not mean the increase is sustained.
We looked at how sustainable each SigDev was. Specifically, the max price 24 hours after each SigDev compared to the following week's average price
The data shows that the hype of a Listing or Partnership announcement tends to wear off within a week; however, Funding announcements and announcements about Mergers and Acquisitions have positive effects that often extend well beyond a week
Listings can have large impacts on price, but why is there such variance in the data?
Some cryptos already trade on hundreds of exchanges, so an additional listing would likely have negligible impact on the price of the asset.
Ex. BCH on Crypto(dot)com
However, when a newer asset that was previously listed on more illiquid markets gets placed on a large trading venue like Coinbase or Binance — when markets previously didn’t exist for that coin on any of the larger exchanges. the potential impact is the greatest.
Consider Aragon. On Aug 12th ANT was first listed on OKEx when it rose from $4.34 to $5.38 in just under two hours, a gain of 24%. Less than 24 hours later, the token was listed on Huobi and Binance concurrently, and the price of Aragon soared to a high of $11.45, a 164% gain
In the short-term increased exposure via listings is a positive for the price of cryptocurrencies.
However, as mentioned, listings are among the least sustainable events in the mid-term. In under three months the price of ANT dropped to below the pre-listing value.
Analyzing over 10,000 unique SigDevs we then asked the question, what is the probability that a particular event will correlate with an increase in price?
See table below for the probability that each SigDev will result in a positive change after 1hr/24hr/7d
Mergers and Acquisitions are remarkable, showing a 90% chance of a positive return after a week, averaging 8.23% in returns. This outsized return is likely due to the fact that most token-related M&A news are tightly held secrets.
Further, M&A news in the context of tokens are typically done to add further value to an ecosystem. Ex. FTX’s acquisition of Blockfolio brought a significant number of additional users into the FTX ecosystem. In just over a week following the acquisition, FTT surged by 33%.
Conversely, and unsurprisingly, 51 % Attacks show the lowest probabilities of positive returns. 51% attacks show an average loss of 3.32% after one week. 79.2% of the time, tokens lose value after 7 days.
A Mainnet Launch or Upgrade results in a positive price increase for the coin only 47% of the time. A mainnet launch means that a token is moving from a testing to a live environment. Negative price movement is likely due to a “buy the rumor and sell the news” mentality.
Token burns result in the decreasing of the supply of a token, so intuitively one would think that the deflationary pressure would be a positive in the longer-term, but early research on this subject has not offered any conclusive proof.
As this industry develops over time we believe that it is more likely that gains for token burns will be more sustainable, all else equal.
Here is an additional chart showing the average price change following each significant development:
Let’s be honest — as much as people like to say they get their news from real news outlets, many of us rely on Twitter. But does news from news outlets affect price more than tweeted information? It depends.
Generally, we find no significant difference in price action after announcements, whether they come from tweets or news. However, Regulatory announcements tend to have a larger effect from news while Airdrop announcements are more supported by Twitter activity.
The next question we set out to ask is does Twitter activity matter? Does it matter how positive or negative investors are about a coin following a significant development and how big the size of the community discussing a particular asset is.
We can't give everything away in a thread
Read the Q3 Quarterly Report that we put together with @eToroUS to learn more about what impact Twitter has on prices following SigDevs and dive deeper into what actually moves the prices of cryptocurrencies
https://t.co/lBjqTYWySs
More from Crypto
Lots of people are sleeping on one the biggest things @quant_network is currently involved in-ODAP (Open Digital Asset Protocol).
So what is exactly #ODAP and why this makes $QNT one of the most significant and, regarding #crypto mcap, undervalued projects?
Time for a THREAD⬇️
1/ODAP is the protocol for communication between gateways, primarily with an enterprise focus.
So banks, central banks etc. would run a gateway in Overledger Network and ODAP would be the protocol for gateways to communicate with each other in a secure and trustless manner. $QNT
2/ #ODAP Interfaces are the open source connectors that will connect a gateway to #blockchains and any existing network / API. That is based on the standards from work done at ISO TC 307 which 57 countries are working towards.
$QNT CEO Gilbert Verdian is the founder of TC307.
3/We know from the submitted drafts via #IETF (the Internet Engineering Task Force) $QNT is working on #ODAP with:
✅@MIT
✅@intel
but, there’s more to the story as we found out from Gilbert that US Government, Juniper, payment and telecom companies are also there.
4/So how it all started with #ODAP?
Let’s go back to $QNT CEO Gilbert Verdian’s interview with Santiago Velez on #RealVision (October 14th) and try to put all the pieces of the puzzle together.
I’ll forward his words ⬇️
So what is exactly #ODAP and why this makes $QNT one of the most significant and, regarding #crypto mcap, undervalued projects?
Time for a THREAD⬇️
1/ODAP is the protocol for communication between gateways, primarily with an enterprise focus.
So banks, central banks etc. would run a gateway in Overledger Network and ODAP would be the protocol for gateways to communicate with each other in a secure and trustless manner. $QNT
Attending @ietf 109 to discuss our ODAP proposal with @MIT today. We\u2019re in the secdispatch session. They even have a virtual conference centre. #IETF109 https://t.co/2i9d5JxtR0 pic.twitter.com/osv2LCEUGx
— Gilbert Verdian (@gverdian) November 16, 2020
2/ #ODAP Interfaces are the open source connectors that will connect a gateway to #blockchains and any existing network / API. That is based on the standards from work done at ISO TC 307 which 57 countries are working towards.
$QNT CEO Gilbert Verdian is the founder of TC307.
3/We know from the submitted drafts via #IETF (the Internet Engineering Task Force) $QNT is working on #ODAP with:
✅@MIT
✅@intel
but, there’s more to the story as we found out from Gilbert that US Government, Juniper, payment and telecom companies are also there.
4/So how it all started with #ODAP?
Let’s go back to $QNT CEO Gilbert Verdian’s interview with Santiago Velez on #RealVision (October 14th) and try to put all the pieces of the puzzle together.
I’ll forward his words ⬇️
The #Blockchain Revolution and Economic Changes
— Real Vision (@RealVision) October 28, 2020
What kind of world does @gverdian envision? How will @quant_network change the existing structure to benefit us all?
Real Vision journalists examine @gverdian & @Santiag78758327 latest interview.https://t.co/dfDAjDFbF3
"Blockchain technology is energy-intensive..." => No, it doesn't have to be.
Let's look at Proof-Of-Stake, an alternative to the energy-intensive Proof-Of-Work algorithm.
🧵🔽
1️⃣ A Quick Recap On Proof-Of-Work
A Proof-Of-Work algorithm requires miners to do a certain amount of work that is compute-intensive to gain access to a service or the right to do something. This algorithm, by design, also requires that the work done shall not ...
... be reusable for anything else than what it was performed for. This lies at the core of the security concept of a blockchain. To gain the right to append a new block to a chain and to get some currency as a reward, there is work to be done, and this work must be verifyable.
That work is a race between different miners. Many miners try to compete and to be the first to find the answer to a problem presented to them. This implies that a lot of energy is wasted as only the first correct solution is accepted.
You can find a more detailed thread on Proof-Of-Work
Let's look at Proof-Of-Stake, an alternative to the energy-intensive Proof-Of-Work algorithm.
🧵🔽
1️⃣ A Quick Recap On Proof-Of-Work
A Proof-Of-Work algorithm requires miners to do a certain amount of work that is compute-intensive to gain access to a service or the right to do something. This algorithm, by design, also requires that the work done shall not ...
... be reusable for anything else than what it was performed for. This lies at the core of the security concept of a blockchain. To gain the right to append a new block to a chain and to get some currency as a reward, there is work to be done, and this work must be verifyable.
That work is a race between different miners. Many miners try to compete and to be the first to find the answer to a problem presented to them. This implies that a lot of energy is wasted as only the first correct solution is accepted.
You can find a more detailed thread on Proof-Of-Work
Proof-Of-Work is the name of a cryptographic algorithm that is used for some blockchains when new blocks are to be appended to the chain.
— Oliver Jumpertz (@oliverjumpertz) April 3, 2021
Let's take a higher-level look at how this one works, shall we?
\U0001f9f5\U0001f53d
A primer on how to use @coingecko for your crypto data/research/trading needs.
Share it with a friend who needs it!
1/ Getting started with crypto and want to check prices/projects? https://t.co/LFnk4vukxj has info on just about every crypto you'll need :)
2/ Search over 6000+ cryptocurrencies available on the market. You can see what's trending in the space as well.
Researching by categories? Filter (left side) -> Select categories -> DeFi, DOT ecosystem, Exchange-based tokens, NFTs - anything!
3/ Lets say you're looking at #Bitcoin https://t.co/g205lj03pG
At a glance you get:
- Price
- Mkt Capitalization (valuation)
- Circulating/Total supply
- 24h trading volume
- Links to websites, social media, block explorers
- Calculator
Next - check valuation?
4/ Market cap is used to rank coins, and we'll show you how its calculated - Hover over Circulating Supply (?) for breakdown.
Note: used @chainlink as example here - https://t.co/Jc46fe79Ag
While MC is important also consider product fit, narrative, team, community etc.
5/ If you're trading on AMMs like @Uniswap or @SushiSwap, you can copy the contract address directly to your clipboard.
Using @metamask_io? Add the token directly so it shows as one of the "Assets" that you own in the wallet.
See: https://t.co/94XihMf5oz
Share it with a friend who needs it!
1/ Getting started with crypto and want to check prices/projects? https://t.co/LFnk4vukxj has info on just about every crypto you'll need :)
2/ Search over 6000+ cryptocurrencies available on the market. You can see what's trending in the space as well.
Researching by categories? Filter (left side) -> Select categories -> DeFi, DOT ecosystem, Exchange-based tokens, NFTs - anything!
3/ Lets say you're looking at #Bitcoin https://t.co/g205lj03pG
At a glance you get:
- Price
- Mkt Capitalization (valuation)
- Circulating/Total supply
- 24h trading volume
- Links to websites, social media, block explorers
- Calculator
Next - check valuation?
4/ Market cap is used to rank coins, and we'll show you how its calculated - Hover over Circulating Supply (?) for breakdown.
Note: used @chainlink as example here - https://t.co/Jc46fe79Ag
While MC is important also consider product fit, narrative, team, community etc.
5/ If you're trading on AMMs like @Uniswap or @SushiSwap, you can copy the contract address directly to your clipboard.
Using @metamask_io? Add the token directly so it shows as one of the "Assets" that you own in the wallet.
See: https://t.co/94XihMf5oz
Introducing an effortless way to add tokens to your @metamask_io wallet \U0001f4e5
— CoinGecko (@coingecko) February 8, 2021
Skip the hassle of copying/pasting contract addresses to your wallet. Add an asset and it'll appear in your wallet with just a click - tap the \U0001f98a and try it out for yourself! pic.twitter.com/u26BA29ubs
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A THREAD ON @SarangSood
Decoded his way of analysis/logics for everyone to easily understand.
Have covered:
1. Analysis of volatility, how to foresee/signs.
2. Workbook
3. When to sell options
4. Diff category of days
5. How movement of option prices tell us what will happen
1. Keeps following volatility super closely.
Makes 7-8 different strategies to give him a sense of what's going on.
Whichever gives highest profit he trades in.
2. Theta falls when market moves.
Falls where market is headed towards not on our original position.
3. If you're an options seller then sell only when volatility is dropping, there is a high probability of you making the right trade and getting profit as a result
He believes in a market operator, if market mover sells volatility Sarang Sir joins him.
4. Theta decay vs Fall in vega
Sell when Vega is falling rather than for theta decay. You won't be trapped and higher probability of making profit.
Decoded his way of analysis/logics for everyone to easily understand.
Have covered:
1. Analysis of volatility, how to foresee/signs.
2. Workbook
3. When to sell options
4. Diff category of days
5. How movement of option prices tell us what will happen
1. Keeps following volatility super closely.
Makes 7-8 different strategies to give him a sense of what's going on.
Whichever gives highest profit he trades in.
I am quite different from your style. I follow the market's volatility very closely. I have mock positions in 7-8 different strategies which allows me to stay connected. Whichever gives best profit is usually the one i trade in.
— Sarang Sood (@SarangSood) August 13, 2019
2. Theta falls when market moves.
Falls where market is headed towards not on our original position.
Anilji most of the time these days Theta only falls when market moves. So the Theta actually falls where market has moved to, not where our position was in the first place. By shifting we can come close to capturing the Theta fall but not always.
— Sarang Sood (@SarangSood) June 24, 2019
3. If you're an options seller then sell only when volatility is dropping, there is a high probability of you making the right trade and getting profit as a result
He believes in a market operator, if market mover sells volatility Sarang Sir joins him.
This week has been great so far. The main aim is to be in the right side of the volatility, rest the market will reward.
— Sarang Sood (@SarangSood) July 3, 2019
4. Theta decay vs Fall in vega
Sell when Vega is falling rather than for theta decay. You won't be trapped and higher probability of making profit.
There is a difference between theta decay & fall in vega. Decay is certain but there is no guaranteed profit as delta moves can increase cost. Fall in vega on the other hand is backed by a powerful force that sells options and gives handsome returns. Our job is to identify them.
— Sarang Sood (@SarangSood) February 12, 2020
H was always unseen in S2NL :)
Those who exited at 1500 needed money. They can always come back near 969. Those who exited at 230 also needed money. They can come back near 95.
Those who sold L @ 660 can always come back at 360. Those who sold S last week can be back @ 301
Those who exited at 1500 needed money. They can always come back near 969. Those who exited at 230 also needed money. They can come back near 95.
Those who sold L @ 660 can always come back at 360. Those who sold S last week can be back @ 301
Sir, Log yahan.. 13 days patience nhi rakh sakte aur aap 2013 ki baat kar rahe ho. Even Aap Ready made portfolio banakar bhi de do to bhi wo 1 month me hi EXIT kar denge \U0001f602
— BhavinKhengarSuratGujarat (@IntradayWithBRK) September 19, 2021
Neuland 2700 se 1500 & Sequent 330 to 230 kya huwa.. 99% retailers/investors twitter par charcha n EXIT\U0001f602
