CRB index has just reached the tops made in 1997 and 2000 and bottom made in 2009.

Relax, commodity rally is not over. It has just started and perhaps taking a breather.

@nishkumar1977

More from Mayank Narula

DXY and commodities usually don't move in the same direction.

One of them has to give-in.

My money (not literally) is on commodities reversal in near future.

Even in the past, whenever the inverse relationship appeared to be broken, it always resolved in the favour of USD.

Mayank Narula
@Mayank_Narula1

I did this comparison between Aarti Drugs and Tata Elxsi back in Oct when Tata Elxsi was at 1200-1300. Now it is 4200+.

Here is one more stock displaying similar characteristics: Mayur Uniquoters.

Spot the similarities here in the price action:#AARTIDRUGS

2013-2015: Monthly RSI goes over 70 and stock goes up 4-5x.

2015-2020: range consolidation

2020: repeat of 2013-15 in few months pic.twitter.com/53L2fNpJoM
— Mayank Narula (@Mayank_Narula1) October 10, 2020

#MayurUniq

Coming out of 7 years consolidation.

Weekly and monthly RSI crossing over 70.

Can it do what Aarti Drugs and Tata Elxsi did in last 1 year?

#MayurUniq

Monthly RSI crossed over 70 in Sep'09 and stayed till Sep'11.

Stock did 5x in that time.

Mayank Narula
@Mayank_Narula1

#NIFTY
#SMALLCAPS

Spot the similarities between Nifty March-April 2020 move and Smallcaps current move.

Both are forming leading diagonals.

#Bullish

Mayank Narula
@Mayank_Narula1

Bull Market Rotation: We all have heard about bull market rotation over last few months.

Let's see how it looks. Below is the comparative chart of IT (candlestick chart) vs Metals (blue line chart). Let's see how it has moved from March'20 bottom till now.

(1/4)

1) March'20 to July'20: Both going up but IT clearly outperforming metals during the period.

2) July to Aug: IT consolidating, metals outperforming.

3) Aug to Oct: IT moving up, metals under retracement.

(2/4)

4) Oct to Nov: Tables turning again in favour of metals.

5) Nov to Jan: Both moving up, but IT outperforming.

6) Jan to May: Metals outperforming IT after some initial retracement in first few weeks of Jan. Since last week of Jan to May, it's been all metals.

(3/4)

7) May to July: IT again leading, with metals consolidating.

Let's see how it turns from here.

(4/4)

Mayank Narula
@Mayank_Narula1

GOLD: I don't understand what's so complicated about Gold.

Below 1920: Must avoid.

Above 1920 on weekly and monthly closing basis: Breakout of epic proportions.

The best way to know if people like your product is NOT:

- Have a lot of emails in the waiting list
- Become #1 on PH
- Become #1 of HN or Reddit
- Have people that saing "I'll pay"
- Have a lot of free users

The best way to know if they're actually pay for it.

The only thing that matters is your product providing a value, and you can't know this until people will pay money for it.

We can have a first signal of a product/market fit after the launch by check how many sales we've got in the first 24h. Some scale:

200+ This has a high potential.
100+: This has a potential.
50+: Some people need it.
10+: People almost don't need it.
0+: People don't need it.

This is for a single time payment product. For a subscription probably it should be less because people hate subscription.

And obviously, you should have a lot of traffic like 3-5k+.

Here is a stat for my products (macOS apps) for the first 24h after the launch:

Andrew Chen
@andrewchen

👇Thread.

Published a new essay: The red flags and magic numbers that investors look for in your startup’s metrics – 80 slide deck included!

This was a deck that I created on my (longish) interview process with @a16z. It was a long path, starting with meeting folks at the firm 10 years ago. But the purpose of the deck was to explain how I would use my superpower in an investing context

Here's what I explain in the deck. As investors (whether angel or VC) we're often confronted with an up-and-to-the-right graph. Is it going to go up? Or down?

One solution to forecast these growth curves is the Growth Accounting Framework, where you add up New+Reactivated and subtract churned users. In each time period that gives you the difference in monthly actives.

The problem with this is that it's a lagging metric, not a leading one. We need to go one level deeper and look at the underlying loops that drive these numbers, to understand the quality.

Patrick Chovanec
@prchovanec

I'm going to do two history threads on Ethiopia, one on its ancient history, one on its modern story (1800 to today). 🇪🇹

I'll begin with the ancient history ... and it goes way back. Because modern humans - and before that, the ancestors of humans - almost certainly originated in Ethiopia. 🇪🇹 (sub-thread):

The famous \u201cLucy\u201d, an early ancestor of modern humans (Australopithecus) that lived 3.2 million years ago, and was discovered in 1974 in Ethiopia, displayed in the national museum in Addis Ababa \U0001f1ea\U0001f1f9 pic.twitter.com/N3oWqk1SW2
— Patrick Chovanec (@prchovanec) November 9, 2018

The first likely historical reference to Ethiopia is ancient Egyptian records of trade expeditions to the "Land of Punt" in search of gold, ebony, ivory, incense, and wild animals, starting in c 2500 BC 🇪🇹

Ethiopians themselves believe that the Queen of Sheba, who visited Israel's King Solomon in the Bible (c 950 BC), came from Ethiopia (not Yemen, as others believe). Here she is meeting Solomon in a stain-glassed window in Addis Ababa's Holy Trinity Church. 🇪🇹