BC CATEGORY C19
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BAYES' THEOREM: The basic reason we get so many false positives to COVID19. The disease is so rare that the number of false positives greatly outnumbers the people who truly have the disease: THE MATHS:
https://t.co/oLHyxYJW9H

 "Suppose that you are worried that you might have a rare disease. You decide to get tested, and suppose that the testing methods for this disease are correct 99 percent of the time"
"Suppose this disease is actually quite rare, occurring randomly in the general population in only one of every 10,000 people. If your test results come back POSITIVE, what are your chances that you actually have the disease? LESS THAN 1% chance that you have the disease!"
"The basic reason we get such a surprising result is because the disease is so rare that the number of false positives greatly outnumbers the people who truly have the disease"
Say mass testing of the contagious virus was done to 1 million people. In that million, 100 will really have the disease, 99 will be correctly diagnosed as having it. 999,900 of the million will not have the disease, but of those about 9,999 will be false positives! #BayesTheorem
1 in 2,000 INCLUDING FALSE POSITIVES classifies Covid19 as a rare disease in winter 20-21
https://t.co/29FNwq0Qw2
Stefano Scoglio, Nobel prize candidate 2018, has calculated a real false positive rate of 95% from official Italian Health Service numbers. This is in line with #BayersTheorem. Calculation in links in thread:
https://t.co/rthjPRJWeB
If we apply the 95% false positive (Scoglio) back to England positive test % incl. false positive: 0.05% (ONS), we get a real % of positives in England of 0.0025% of the population, or 1 in 40,000 people. This would confirm Covid19 as a rare disease as per #BayersTheorem.
Try this calculator for up to 100 tests. https://t.co/5TKEYpjd80
Severe Covid19 is a rare disease in England, if tests are 100% accurate, acc. to hospitalization numbers, it's 0.02% or 1 in 5,000 people.
https://t.co/kFnQVoCspb
#BayesTheorem applied to LF tests: https://t.co/3OrdS7ZFUJ
A simple example of #BayesTheorem with a prevalence of 0.1% (much higher than Covid19) an error range of 1% (RT-PCR Charité range est. 0.8-4%) and only 1,000 people tested: 91% false positives.
#BayesTheorem in simple terms: when medical mass testing includes asymptomatics & the disease affects a minority of the population, a very small margin of error in the testing process will mathematically result in the false positives being many times more than the real positives.
"Covid19"[😞] mass testing graph from The Economist. Y axis being % of test results either true or false. As share of population with active infection (X axis) is well under 1%, most positive tests are false, & most negative results are true. This is called #BAYESTHEOREM.
Latest England estimates:
https://t.co/8hsZ1hNjD7
How to increase the prevalence of a rare disease from 0.01% to 1%? Test the asymptomatics. What prevalence do we estimate Covid19 at including asymptomatic tested? Less than 1%. What could the true prevalence be if we exclude asymptomatic testing? 0.01%. It's called #BayesTheorem
Proof that Matt Hancock is aware of #BayesTheorem, he mentions Bayesian mathematics: https://t.co/hpZYDzD5Pe
As Matt Hancock is clearly aware of #BayesTheorem, if he wanted to avoid the false positives being many more than the true positives, he would not say ONS is applying rigorous Bayesian mathematics, he would instead not implement testing of any asymptomatics not linked to a case.
Matt Hancock is pre-empting the #BayesTheorem false positive trap by mentioning Bayesian mathematics himself in reply. A Freudian slip, a lapsus which reveals what he is really thinking: how do I increase false positives to make Covid19 prevalence appear worse than it really is?
So how does he do it? He implements mass testing of asymptomatics in Universities, then schools. He uses the hierarchical power structures in these institutions to convince healthy students they need to be tested. The schools get closed on false positives, false fear is created.
#BAYESTHEOREM @ Cambridge University. 0.4% of 262 students came back as positive after the first "test". All came back as negative after the second. Government only tests once. ONS would say there is 0.4% prevalence instead it's 0%.
#BAYESTHEOREM @ Cambridge University. 0.5% of 1,937 students came back as positive after the first "test". All came back as negative after the second. Government only tests once. ONS would say there is 0.5% prevalence instead it's 0%.
Sorry this should say 0.4% of 263 students https://t.co/eSNnhyOI4n
See what happens in #BayesTheorem? Number of asymptomatic testing increases & the estimated prevalence of the disease increases!! This can be addressed by requiring confirmatory tests of those who test positive when numbers are small, otherwise DON'T test asymptomatics.
Cambridge Pooled Testing Report #BayesTheorem
https://t.co/BYIzoTl64c
To have the same number of false negatives as false positives you need a disease that is present in 30% of the population. Covid19 affects less than 1%. This means the false positives VASTLY outnumber both the real positives & the false negatives. It's called #BayesTheorem.
Matt Hancock claim: "the ONS report..address directly the question how the ONS adjusts for potential false positives, due to the high but not perfect specificity of the PCR test. I am very happy for one of my academics to take him through the rigorous Bayesian mathematics"
"I am very happy for one of my academics to take him through the rigorous Bayesian mathematics, which I am sure will help to elucidate the debate on this matter still further." @MattHancock to @DesmondSwayne
https://t.co/pZcFlMBKEZ
I am waiting for one of @MattHancock's academics to take us through this as I have seen no evidence of @ONS adjusting for false positives according to #BayesTheorem https://t.co/ykB67TJORe
Professor Emeritus in Public Health, University of Arizona:
https://t.co/aidVGWOVqH
WHO wakes up to #BayesTheorem https://t.co/nDKklwMhQe

More from Robin Monotti FRSA MA BSc

Robin Monotti
Robin Monotti
@robinmonotti
Can any MP ask the government why early treatment kits to stop viral replication & infection are not made available cheaply & prescription free in pharmacies as they are in India? Is it lives we want to save or is it Big Pharma profits? Because the two are mutually exclusive.


There could even be competing kits, & the decision which to take could be left to doctors & patients, as happens with most medicines. The problem is that there is not one of these kits available cheaply & prescription free anywhere in the West.

Doxycycline, Ivermectin, Azithromycin, Hydroxychloroquine, Zinc, Vitamin D, Vitamin C, omega-3s, all approved as safe drugs decades ago. This is clearly not an issue of safety. It should be left to a doctor's experience & judgement whether they are effective or not, not academia.

A GP could simply state on his website: of all the kits I recommend Kit Z, then Kit Y etc. No need to wait hours for consultations, as soon as the symptoms are clear the self administered treatment begins, and thousands of lives are saved, as well as hospitals remain underwhelmed

There is no need to go to ER or ICU if people can buy early treatment kits from pharmacies. There is no need for any hospital to be overwhelmed. This problem could be resolved in days. There is simply no political will to save lives as it means to go against Big Pharma profits.
HEALTH
Robin Monotti MA FRSA\u2b50
Robin Monotti MA FRSA⭐...
@robinmonotti
"COVID-19 vaccines designed to elicit neutralising antibodies may sensitise vaccine recipients to more severe disease than if they were not vaccinated. Vaccines for SARS, MERS and RSV have never been

"data generated in the development & testing of these vaccines suggest a serious mechanistic concern: that vaccines designed empirically using the traditional approach (consisting of the unmodified or minimally modified coronavirus viral spike to elicit neutralising antibodies)"

"be they composed of protein, viral vector, DNA or RNA and irrespective of delivery method, may worsen COVID-19 disease via antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE)."

"This risk is sufficiently obscured in clinical trial protocols and consent forms for ongoing COVID-19 vaccine trials that adequate patient comprehension of this risk is unlikely to occur, obviating truly informed consent by subjects in these trials."

"Covid-19: vaccination roll-out correlates with worse mortality trends"
CATEGORY C19
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Robin Monotti
Robin Monotti
@robinmonotti
Twitter removed 800 followers from my account today. People have been writing saying twitter automatically unfollowed me for them. Follow me on Parler @robinmonotti & Telegram https://t.co/o5rFaSrCpa to bypass this.

I have already left both Facebook & Instagram. We need to keep agile.

They will try to ban Parler, blaming it for Capitol theatre. I think Telegram may survive as it's not based in the

Yes Telegram owner @durov received & accepted what effectively is an award, not a partnership: the Young Global Leaders membership of the World Economic Forum in 2017. Does this mean he passes users info on? I don't think so.

This is what @Snowden had to say about @durov. Since then Telegram introduced the option of end to end encrypted chats not saved in Telegram servers. These private chats cannot be forwarded, and none of the participants can capture screenshots of
TWITTER
Robin Monotti
Robin Monotti
@robinmonotti
You know why they didn't try anything like this in the 1970s? Because a generation which remembered WW2 & were still strong enough would not have let them. Politicians were scared of people's reactions back then. They were literally scared for their lives. What happened?

Also, the State did not simply consist of politicians backed by a few regime journalists. There was a much stronger judiciary & military. We would already have seen the military remove deranged politicians leading any country into ruin like this.

The military would have turned against any government which indicated their role was to swab violate children or help inject people with unsafe experimental RNA altering drugs for a virus with a 99.7+% survival rate. They would have taken power by now. What happened?

The most important lesson we can teach our children are the lessons the parents who remembered WW2 taught theirs: how to say NO to a government that is going in a direction you disagree with before it's too late.

This has to start at refusing schools being turned into biosecurity propaganda outposts, asymptomatic testing stations, anti-science brainwashing institutions on masks, repeated swab violation of children's bodies for no gain & to artificially create false positive disruption
SOCIETY
Robin Monotti FRSA
Robin Monotti FRSA
@robinmonotti
I have studied the pandemic response of many countries. One of them got a key element right, which resulted in very few deaths: Japan. Their response was to keep people OUT of hospitals. A policy of early home treatment works best, hospitals only for severe cases & NO INTUBATIONS

JAPAN: "No restrictions were placed on residents’ movements, and businesses from restaurants to hairdressers stayed open. No high-tech apps that tracked people’s movements were deployed." RESULT: Among the lowest deaths in the

Saving the NHS simply means providing early treatment kits in pharmacies & avoiding hospitals for Covid19 patients. For Covid19 infections during a pandemic, hospitals are the problem, not the solution.

I have read accounts of people with high fever literally turned away from hospitals, yet being told by phone what treatment protocol to follow. That was the best pandemic response by far, NOT lockdowns.

JAPAN had some of the lowest Covid19 mortality in the world:
-NO LOCKDOWN
-NO TEST AND TRACE
-NO BUSINESS CLOSURES
-NO HOSPITAL FOR NON CRITICAL CASES
-HOME TREATMENT
-HEALTHY DIET
-LOW OBESITY
CATEGORY C19

More from Category c19

Robin Monotti MA FRSA\u2b50
Robin Monotti MA FRSA⭐...
@robinmonotti
"COVID-19 vaccines designed to elicit neutralising antibodies may sensitise vaccine recipients to more severe disease than if they were not vaccinated. Vaccines for SARS, MERS and RSV have never been

"data generated in the development & testing of these vaccines suggest a serious mechanistic concern: that vaccines designed empirically using the traditional approach (consisting of the unmodified or minimally modified coronavirus viral spike to elicit neutralising antibodies)"

"be they composed of protein, viral vector, DNA or RNA and irrespective of delivery method, may worsen COVID-19 disease via antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE)."

"This risk is sufficiently obscured in clinical trial protocols and consent forms for ongoing COVID-19 vaccine trials that adequate patient comprehension of this risk is unlikely to occur, obviating truly informed consent by subjects in these trials."

"Covid-19: vaccination roll-out correlates with worse mortality trends"
CATEGORY C19
Brumby
Brumby
@the_brumby
This will be my first and possibly last tweet (thread) as I am mostly here to learn. It is prompted by a recent study questioning lockdown efficacy that is getting a lot of attention. It appears people believe it to be the first of its kind, but I have been collecting similar

studies since March 2020. Below are 30 published papers finding that lockdowns had little or no efficacy (despite unconscionable harms) along with a key quote or two from each:

1.https://t.co/VseXe862AX

“there is no evidence that more restrictive nonpharmaceutical interventions (“lockdowns”) contributed substantially to bending the curve of new cases in England, France, Germany, Iran, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, or the United States in early 2020”

2.https://t.co/EzTSzeZyue

“Inferences on effects of NPIs are non-robust and highly sensitive to model specification. Claimed benefits of lockdown appear grossly exaggerated.”

3.https://t.co/4c4LqeQ5bz

“government actions such as border closures, full lockdowns, and a high rate of COVID-19 testing were not associated with statistically significant reductions in the number of critical cases or overall mortality”
CATEGORY C19
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Pace \U0001f642
Pace 🙂
@theotherphilipp
The genesis of a pandemic.

The #Corona crisis began with a panopticon of absurd events, improbable coincidences and outright lies.

Time for a review of the impossibilities.

A thread 🧵


1/ At the end of December 2019, Wenliang, an eye doctor from Wuhan, noticed an allegedly unusual incidence of pneumonia. It remains a mystery what is unusual about 44 patients in a city with over 8 million citizens during winter.

2/ On Jan. 5, WHO informs for the first time about a pneumonia of unknown cause, which it can clarify by 7 January. The virus is believed to be a close relative of SARS. A fish market allegedly is the origin. The #Zoonosis legend, unproven until today, is born.


3/ On Jan. 10, the first gene sequence of the virus today called #SARS-CoV2 appears at https://t.co/tqxKgyykBr, and on Jan. 12, 4 more sequences are published by @edwardcholmes in the GISAID (Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data)

4/ As early as January 13, just a single day later, WHO accepts Mr. #Drosten|s PCR testing protocol as gold
CATEGORY C19
Medical Nemesis
Medical Nemesis
@Medical_Nemesis
I am puzzled as to what the greatest medical scholar found in his research of smallpox vaccination.

/1


Legends and myths in medicine. Debunked. Not that but few care.

https://t.co/3Hu2D9Un0J

/2


https://t.co/xnZ2EXO1f5

/3


Open access.

Where have we seen this before? 🤔
CATEGORY C19
Howard Steen
Howard Steen
@HowardSteen4
1/n Presenting Part One of my second trilogy (following the 2020 Lockdown Trilogy) in my Cartoon series:

“The War of the Worlds & Age of Extinction Cometh – The Transformers of MolBiol”

A comprehensive guide of the imagery found in this canvas is contained in this thread:


2/n Starting at the upper RH part of the image and moving from right to left, one first sees the “Three Witches of Molbiol” riding on a Trojan Horse. The three witches (ref: Macbeth) are depicted as enablers of the crisis via their mischief = misuse of molecular biology.


3/n Let us start with the arguably fake Prof. Drosten who heads the Charité Institute in Berlin. Drosten led work to develop a first PCR test protocol for SARS-CoV-2 published by @Eurosurveillanc in record time and promoted by WHO as a ‘gold standard’.


4/n Had Drosten done his work honestly and produced a test capable of detecting the SARS-CoV-2 entity, all might be well today, but he did not. His manifest scientific failings and problems with conflicts of interest are fully documented in here:

5/n Of course Drosten could not have carried off this piece of MolBiol sleight of hand all on his own. He needed accomplices & global support. A key European ‘witch’ was Dutch based @MarionKoopmans , a co-author of the Corman-Drosten scientific paper.
CATEGORY C19

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TILAK:AN AGE OLD PRACTICE OF HINDUS

The beautiful Matribhumi of Bharat is the land of many religions &cultures but its Hinduism with which the world identifies this great Nation. Hinduism is the religion with science at its heart &its also a religion of many rituals &traditions.


Today we will talk about a very prominent and noticeable Mark on the foreheads of #Hindus called 'Tilak'. Tilaks are of different designs and colors. It symbolizes different meanings for different people such as religious expression, spiritual symbol, marital status etc.


Tilak is a very alluring design that is made in between the eyebrows. Vermilion, Chandan, Turmeric, Kumkum, Rice and Rice water, Vibhuti etc can all be used as Tilaks.
Why this particular spot is used for Tilak? Bcoz, it is mentioned as 'Ajna Chakra' in terms of yoga.


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SPIRITUAL SIGNIFICANCE

Various Hindu Scriptures mention the importance of Tilak in Sanatan Dharma. It is believed that energy, strength and divinity comes to those who apply Tilak. It is also regarded as a welcoming expression and to honour the guests when they arrive.
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Hindu Media Wiki
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Speech Delay is most common in children nowadays

In ancient times, our grandparents used to follow typical natural way of caring the needs of a child. All they used were more of natural products than chemical based for the growth of child.


One of major step followed was to feed Gurbach Jadd/ Vasa Kommu/ Acorus Calamus for initiating good speech ability in a child. This stem was needed to babies on Tuesdays and Sundays in mother's milk.

Vasa is feed to baby after the 1st bath on 12th day in week. Weekly only thrice it is fed and named as :

Budhwar - Budhi Vasa
Mangalwar - Vaak Vasa
Ravi Vaar - Aayush Vasa

This stem is burnt and rubbed against the grinding stone in mother's milk or warm water to get a paste


The procedure to make it is in the link

https://t.co/uo4sGp7mUm

It should not be given daily to the child. Other main benefits are

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Anu Satheesh
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@AnuSatheesh5
Dhanwanthari Temple, Nelluvai
Thrissur District, Kerala.🚩🚩

ॐ नमो भगवते वासुदेवाय धन्वन्तरये अमृतकलश हस्ताय
सर्वामय विनाशनाय त्रैलोक्यनाथाय श्री महाविष्णवे नमः
#temples

Dhanwanthary Moorthy temple in Nelluvai is one among the ancient temples in Kerala.


Dhanwanthari is the Deva of Ayurveda. It is said that the murthy at the temple was installed by Ashwani Devas and it was the same idol worshipped by Sri. Vasudevar in the Dwapara Yuga. The Dhanvanthari Moorthi is facing towards the west
@SriramKannan77


Smrata-Matrarti-Nasanah', Srimad Bhagavatam states that the one who remembers the name of Dhanwantari will be cured and protected from all the diseases. Temple is known for its Oushada Prasada with Ayuvedic medicinal values, called Mukkudi.


Mukkudi Nivedyam is a very special offering to Dhanwantari. It is prepared by using dry ginger, pepper, pomegranate peel, cumin seed, turmeric, rock salt and other medicinal items. It is offered during 'Usha- Pooja', and is later on distributed to the devotees present there.
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Vibhu Vashisth
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Did you know?

When Saudi Arabia's King visited India in 1955, PM Nehru ordered all the Hindu Temples and Idols of Hindu Deities that came in Saudi King's way to be covered up.
Our temples are the architectural marvels in their own league.


Each of our temples tells the story of our rich history and cultural heritage. Was Nehru that ashamed of his own nation's heritage that he had to cover them up or there was some other reason? The answer would be best known to him only.

PM Nehru invited the then Saudi King Saud bin Abdul Aziz to India who accepted the invitation and planned a 17 day long official visit to India in 1955. Saudi King had brought a large delegation with him and he had to visit various Indian cities like Mumbai, Hyderabad, Agra,


Aligarh, Shimla, Mysore and Varanasi. However, when Saudi King reached Varanasi, Nehru ordered to cover all the temples and Idols with curtains that came in the way of the Royal Convoy. During his stay in Varanasi, Govt buildings were painted with the words "Kalma Tayyiba".


'Kalma Tayyiba' means 'There is not God but only Allah and Mohammed is his messenger'. In addition to it, Pooja and Aartis were also stopped at temples. I can call it the appeasement politics of the highest order and Nehru was indeed the greatest appeaser of all times.
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AAdhira \U0001f319\U0001f1ee\U0001f1f3
AAdhira 🌙🇮🇳...
@Aadhiraspeaks
Shri Hanuman had boon to be immortal. And be present where ever there is Ram stuti.
I came across this beautiful story that I would like to share
#threadstories
#Hanuman ji is believed to live in the foothills of Himalayas. But once he spent a lot of time in Sri Lanka
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Where Ravan's brother ruled for many years..
On his way back he came across tribal people from community called #Mathanga
He gave Darshan to them. The chief of the tribe asked him to keep coming back to guide their generations
Hanuman ji said that whoever recites this mantra
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I will give them Darshan. But there are two conditions
1st he/she must know his relationship with me
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He promised to come after every 41 yrs
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The Mathangs also maintain a ‘logbook’ where they record all the words spoken and ‘leelas’ performed by Lord Hanuman.
They call him their Guru
Who teaches them how to live their lives.
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programmes for Hanuman devotees who can do ‘Sadhna‘ under the guidance of Setuu masters. Devotees who qualify all the criteria will be eligible for Hanuman’s ‘sakshaat darshan‘
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