BC CATEGORY C19
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BAYES' THEOREM: The basic reason we get so many false positives to COVID19. The disease is so rare that the number of false positives greatly outnumbers the people who truly have the disease: THE MATHS:
https://t.co/oLHyxYJW9H

 "Suppose that you are worried that you might have a rare disease. You decide to get tested, and suppose that the testing methods for this disease are correct 99 percent of the time"
"Suppose this disease is actually quite rare, occurring randomly in the general population in only one of every 10,000 people. If your test results come back POSITIVE, what are your chances that you actually have the disease? LESS THAN 1% chance that you have the disease!"
"The basic reason we get such a surprising result is because the disease is so rare that the number of false positives greatly outnumbers the people who truly have the disease"
Say mass testing of the contagious virus was done to 1 million people. In that million, 100 will really have the disease, 99 will be correctly diagnosed as having it. 999,900 of the million will not have the disease, but of those about 9,999 will be false positives! #BayesTheorem
1 in 2,000 INCLUDING FALSE POSITIVES classifies Covid19 as a rare disease in winter 20-21
https://t.co/29FNwq0Qw2
Stefano Scoglio, Nobel prize candidate 2018, has calculated a real false positive rate of 95% from official Italian Health Service numbers. This is in line with #BayersTheorem. Calculation in links in thread:
https://t.co/rthjPRJWeB
If we apply the 95% false positive (Scoglio) back to England positive test % incl. false positive: 0.05% (ONS), we get a real % of positives in England of 0.0025% of the population, or 1 in 40,000 people. This would confirm Covid19 as a rare disease as per #BayersTheorem.
Try this calculator for up to 100 tests. https://t.co/5TKEYpjd80
Severe Covid19 is a rare disease in England, if tests are 100% accurate, acc. to hospitalization numbers, it's 0.02% or 1 in 5,000 people.
https://t.co/kFnQVoCspb
#BayesTheorem applied to LF tests: https://t.co/3OrdS7ZFUJ
A simple example of #BayesTheorem with a prevalence of 0.1% (much higher than Covid19) an error range of 1% (RT-PCR Charité range est. 0.8-4%) and only 1,000 people tested: 91% false positives.
#BayesTheorem in simple terms: when medical mass testing includes asymptomatics & the disease affects a minority of the population, a very small margin of error in the testing process will mathematically result in the false positives being many times more than the real positives.
"Covid19"[😞] mass testing graph from The Economist. Y axis being % of test results either true or false. As share of population with active infection (X axis) is well under 1%, most positive tests are false, & most negative results are true. This is called #BAYESTHEOREM.
Latest England estimates:
https://t.co/8hsZ1hNjD7
How to increase the prevalence of a rare disease from 0.01% to 1%? Test the asymptomatics. What prevalence do we estimate Covid19 at including asymptomatic tested? Less than 1%. What could the true prevalence be if we exclude asymptomatic testing? 0.01%. It's called #BayesTheorem
Proof that Matt Hancock is aware of #BayesTheorem, he mentions Bayesian mathematics: https://t.co/hpZYDzD5Pe
As Matt Hancock is clearly aware of #BayesTheorem, if he wanted to avoid the false positives being many more than the true positives, he would not say ONS is applying rigorous Bayesian mathematics, he would instead not implement testing of any asymptomatics not linked to a case.
Matt Hancock is pre-empting the #BayesTheorem false positive trap by mentioning Bayesian mathematics himself in reply. A Freudian slip, a lapsus which reveals what he is really thinking: how do I increase false positives to make Covid19 prevalence appear worse than it really is?
So how does he do it? He implements mass testing of asymptomatics in Universities, then schools. He uses the hierarchical power structures in these institutions to convince healthy students they need to be tested. The schools get closed on false positives, false fear is created.
#BAYESTHEOREM @ Cambridge University. 0.4% of 262 students came back as positive after the first "test". All came back as negative after the second. Government only tests once. ONS would say there is 0.4% prevalence instead it's 0%.
#BAYESTHEOREM @ Cambridge University. 0.5% of 1,937 students came back as positive after the first "test". All came back as negative after the second. Government only tests once. ONS would say there is 0.5% prevalence instead it's 0%.
Sorry this should say 0.4% of 263 students https://t.co/eSNnhyOI4n
See what happens in #BayesTheorem? Number of asymptomatic testing increases & the estimated prevalence of the disease increases!! This can be addressed by requiring confirmatory tests of those who test positive when numbers are small, otherwise DON'T test asymptomatics.
Cambridge Pooled Testing Report #BayesTheorem
https://t.co/BYIzoTl64c
To have the same number of false negatives as false positives you need a disease that is present in 30% of the population. Covid19 affects less than 1%. This means the false positives VASTLY outnumber both the real positives & the false negatives. It's called #BayesTheorem.
Matt Hancock claim: "the ONS report..address directly the question how the ONS adjusts for potential false positives, due to the high but not perfect specificity of the PCR test. I am very happy for one of my academics to take him through the rigorous Bayesian mathematics"
"I am very happy for one of my academics to take him through the rigorous Bayesian mathematics, which I am sure will help to elucidate the debate on this matter still further." @MattHancock to @DesmondSwayne
https://t.co/pZcFlMBKEZ
I am waiting for one of @MattHancock's academics to take us through this as I have seen no evidence of @ONS adjusting for false positives according to #BayesTheorem https://t.co/ykB67TJORe
Professor Emeritus in Public Health, University of Arizona:
https://t.co/aidVGWOVqH
WHO wakes up to #BayesTheorem https://t.co/nDKklwMhQe

More from Robin Monotti FRSA MA BSc

Robin Monotti
Robin Monotti
@robinmonotti
WHY MASKS DON'T WORK:
Coughing is NOT the issue.
Large droplets are NOT the issue. Breathing exhales MUCH MORE virus in fine aerosols than coughing. Finer aerosols bypass masks/nose & reach the lungs. Masks NEBULIZE. Solution is VENTILATION not face masks.
https://t.co/FMqYszHKVt


"Once direct measurement of particles containing viruses in exhaled breath was technically feasible, most particles (87%) with influenza viral RNA were found to be smaller than 1 μm."

"Influenza viral RNA was detected in the exhaled breath of 92% of adults. The fine particles contained 8·8-times more viral copies than did the coarse ones. Respiratory viruses have been found in both coughs (82% of participants) and exhaled breath (81% of participants)"

👉 "Human rhinovirus was collected more frequently in exhaled breath than in cough aerosols using a filter method." 👈

"The Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) coronavirus was isolated from seven room air samples from dedicated MERS units in two South Korean hospitals. All seven were positive by PCR and four of seven were positive on viral culture."
SOCIETY
Robin Monotti
Robin Monotti
@robinmonotti
Let me talk about something
I consider myself qualified to discuss: a film director, Oliver Stone. OS is a great political director & a very clever man, one of the best in the industry. My view is that he did not simply take the Russian vx because he didn't want to wait for US 1

He's a very clever man, he made a judgement for his own life, for his family, & he chose the Russian vx instead of any of the Western ones, because he wanted the vx & considers Sputnik V the safest one.

I can see the logic:
1 No accountability for any of the Western vx, nobody can sue for any damage etc.
2 Those who made Sputnik V know they are always personally accountable to Vladimir Putin
3 S5 is based on a pre-existing vx with minimal changes so safety tried for many years

So if the Russians could find a safe way to adapt a tried & tested technology & only alter what is required, using adenovirus vectors, a technology in use for 50 years, experimented on for vx since the 1980s, why were Western Big Pharma so keen on something completely new: mRNA?

That is the question that Oliver Stone is indirectly asking us all to look into & answer: why were Western Big Pharma all at once suddenly so keen on using mRNA when there were much safer & tested directions available (adenovirus vectors), what is it that Western Big Pharma want?
CULTURE
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Robin Monotti MA FRSA\u2b50
Robin Monotti MA FRSA⭐...
@robinmonotti
"COVID-19 vaccines designed to elicit neutralising antibodies may sensitise vaccine recipients to more severe disease than if they were not vaccinated. Vaccines for SARS, MERS and RSV have never been

"data generated in the development & testing of these vaccines suggest a serious mechanistic concern: that vaccines designed empirically using the traditional approach (consisting of the unmodified or minimally modified coronavirus viral spike to elicit neutralising antibodies)"

"be they composed of protein, viral vector, DNA or RNA and irrespective of delivery method, may worsen COVID-19 disease via antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE)."

"This risk is sufficiently obscured in clinical trial protocols and consent forms for ongoing COVID-19 vaccine trials that adequate patient comprehension of this risk is unlikely to occur, obviating truly informed consent by subjects in these trials."

"Covid-19: vaccination roll-out correlates with worse mortality trends"
CATEGORY C19
Robin Monotti
Robin Monotti
@robinmonotti
I have now re-examined this document:


It clearly does indicate both the risks of bacterial infection & to prescribe broad spectrum antibiotics as part of treatment:
"Collect blood cultures for bacteria that cause pneumonia and sepsis, ideally before antimicrobial therapy. DO NOT
delay antimicrobial therapy"

"6. Management of severe COVID-19: treatment of co-infections
Give empiric antimicrobials [broad spectrum antibiotics] to treat all likely pathogens causing SARI and sepsis as soon as possible, within 1 hour
of initial assessment for patients with sepsis."

"Empiric antibiotic treatment should be based on the clinical diagnosis (community-acquired
pneumonia, health care-associated pneumonia [if infection was acquired in health care setting] or sepsis), local epidemiology &
susceptibility data, and national treatment guidelines"

"When there is ongoing local circulation of seasonal influenza, empiric therapy with a neuraminidase inhibitor [anti-viral influenza drugs] should
be considered for the treatment for patients with influenza or at risk for severe disease."
HEALTH
Robin Monotti Graziadei
Robin Monotti Graziade...
@robinmonotti
"PCR is just a process..it does not tell you that you are sick."

Kary Mullis Inventor of the PCR test & Nobel Prize in
PCR

More from Category c19

Brumby
Brumby
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This will be my first and possibly last tweet (thread) as I am mostly here to learn. It is prompted by a recent study questioning lockdown efficacy that is getting a lot of attention. It appears people believe it to be the first of its kind, but I have been collecting similar

studies since March 2020. Below are 30 published papers finding that lockdowns had little or no efficacy (despite unconscionable harms) along with a key quote or two from each:

1.https://t.co/VseXe862AX

“there is no evidence that more restrictive nonpharmaceutical interventions (“lockdowns”) contributed substantially to bending the curve of new cases in England, France, Germany, Iran, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, or the United States in early 2020”

2.https://t.co/EzTSzeZyue

“Inferences on effects of NPIs are non-robust and highly sensitive to model specification. Claimed benefits of lockdown appear grossly exaggerated.”

3.https://t.co/4c4LqeQ5bz

“government actions such as border closures, full lockdowns, and a high rate of COVID-19 testing were not associated with statistically significant reductions in the number of critical cases or overall mortality”
CATEGORY C19
Howard Steen
Howard Steen
@HowardSteen4
1/n Presenting Part One of my second trilogy (following the 2020 Lockdown Trilogy) in my Cartoon series:

“The War of the Worlds & Age of Extinction Cometh – The Transformers of MolBiol”

A comprehensive guide of the imagery found in this canvas is contained in this thread:


2/n Starting at the upper RH part of the image and moving from right to left, one first sees the “Three Witches of Molbiol” riding on a Trojan Horse. The three witches (ref: Macbeth) are depicted as enablers of the crisis via their mischief = misuse of molecular biology.


3/n Let us start with the arguably fake Prof. Drosten who heads the Charité Institute in Berlin. Drosten led work to develop a first PCR test protocol for SARS-CoV-2 published by @Eurosurveillanc in record time and promoted by WHO as a ‘gold standard’.


4/n Had Drosten done his work honestly and produced a test capable of detecting the SARS-CoV-2 entity, all might be well today, but he did not. His manifest scientific failings and problems with conflicts of interest are fully documented in here:

5/n Of course Drosten could not have carried off this piece of MolBiol sleight of hand all on his own. He needed accomplices & global support. A key European ‘witch’ was Dutch based @MarionKoopmans , a co-author of the Corman-Drosten scientific paper.
CATEGORY C19
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Michael P Senger
Michael P Senger
@MichaelPSenger
1/ Thread – LOCKDOWNS – WHAT WE'VE DONE

My work is sometimes criticized for not discussing the merits of lockdown—perhaps even exculpating western leaders by blaming the CCP. Others know better. This thread is for the victims of lockdown, the greatest crime of the 21st century.


2/ Over 60% of business closures from lockdown are now permanent—over 97,000 businesses lost in the U.S. That “leaders” across the world transformed into tyrants, believing they had a right to bankrupt their subjects, is the core evil of

3/ Nearly half of black-owned small businesses have been wiped

4/ Unemployment in the U.S. reached as high as 14.7% and highways have jammed with thousands of vehicles awaiting their turn at food

5/ Nearly 5% of the population of the U.K. went hungry during the first three weeks of lockdown.
CATEGORY C19
Dr. Simon \u30c4
Dr. Simon ツ
@goddeketal
1/: The Nuremberg Code is a set of research ethics principles for human experimentation created as a result of the Nuremberg trials at the end of the Second World War. In light of the current events, they are more actual than ever before. ⬇️an important thread⬇️


2/: These so-called ‘Doctors’ Trial’ focused on physicians who conducted #inhumane and #unethical human experiments in German concentration camps, in addition to those who were involved in over 3,500,000 sterilizations of German citizens. (the picture shows doctors/criminals)


3/: Ten points of the code were given in the section of the verdict entitled "Permissible Medical Experiments". They can be found in detail on the following website:

4/: Point #1 means that the person involved should have legal capacity to give consent; should be so situated as to be able to exercise free power of choice, without the intervention of any element of force, fraud, or deceit.


5/: Using an insufficiently-tested vaccine on humans is unethical. However, as long as people voluntarily consent to receive the vaccine, being informed about all risks, everything is OK. Doing this with force, however, is against the Nuremberg Code.
CATEGORY C19
Pace \U0001f642
Pace 🙂
@theotherphilipp
The genesis of a pandemic.

The #Corona crisis began with a panopticon of absurd events, improbable coincidences and outright lies.

Time for a review of the impossibilities.

A thread 🧵


1/ At the end of December 2019, Wenliang, an eye doctor from Wuhan, noticed an allegedly unusual incidence of pneumonia. It remains a mystery what is unusual about 44 patients in a city with over 8 million citizens during winter.

2/ On Jan. 5, WHO informs for the first time about a pneumonia of unknown cause, which it can clarify by 7 January. The virus is believed to be a close relative of SARS. A fish market allegedly is the origin. The #Zoonosis legend, unproven until today, is born.


3/ On Jan. 10, the first gene sequence of the virus today called #SARS-CoV2 appears at https://t.co/tqxKgyykBr, and on Jan. 12, 4 more sequences are published by @edwardcholmes in the GISAID (Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data)

4/ As early as January 13, just a single day later, WHO accepts Mr. #Drosten|s PCR testing protocol as gold
CATEGORY C19

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Do you know?

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Now,u might be wondering,who is Nagarjuna?

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