BC CATEGORY C19
Saved by @vliscony

BAYES' THEOREM: The basic reason we get so many false positives to COVID19. The disease is so rare that the number of false positives greatly outnumbers the people who truly have the disease: THE MATHS:
https://t.co/oLHyxYJW9H

 "Suppose that you are worried that you might have a rare disease. You decide to get tested, and suppose that the testing methods for this disease are correct 99 percent of the time"
"Suppose this disease is actually quite rare, occurring randomly in the general population in only one of every 10,000 people. If your test results come back POSITIVE, what are your chances that you actually have the disease? LESS THAN 1% chance that you have the disease!"
"The basic reason we get such a surprising result is because the disease is so rare that the number of false positives greatly outnumbers the people who truly have the disease"
Say mass testing of the contagious virus was done to 1 million people. In that million, 100 will really have the disease, 99 will be correctly diagnosed as having it. 999,900 of the million will not have the disease, but of those about 9,999 will be false positives! #BayesTheorem
1 in 2,000 INCLUDING FALSE POSITIVES classifies Covid19 as a rare disease in winter 20-21
https://t.co/29FNwq0Qw2
Stefano Scoglio, Nobel prize candidate 2018, has calculated a real false positive rate of 95% from official Italian Health Service numbers. This is in line with #BayersTheorem. Calculation in links in thread:
https://t.co/rthjPRJWeB
If we apply the 95% false positive (Scoglio) back to England positive test % incl. false positive: 0.05% (ONS), we get a real % of positives in England of 0.0025% of the population, or 1 in 40,000 people. This would confirm Covid19 as a rare disease as per #BayersTheorem.
Try this calculator for up to 100 tests. https://t.co/5TKEYpjd80
Severe Covid19 is a rare disease in England, if tests are 100% accurate, acc. to hospitalization numbers, it's 0.02% or 1 in 5,000 people.
https://t.co/kFnQVoCspb
#BayesTheorem applied to LF tests: https://t.co/3OrdS7ZFUJ
A simple example of #BayesTheorem with a prevalence of 0.1% (much higher than Covid19) an error range of 1% (RT-PCR Charité range est. 0.8-4%) and only 1,000 people tested: 91% false positives.
#BayesTheorem in simple terms: when medical mass testing includes asymptomatics & the disease affects a minority of the population, a very small margin of error in the testing process will mathematically result in the false positives being many times more than the real positives.
"Covid19"[😞] mass testing graph from The Economist. Y axis being % of test results either true or false. As share of population with active infection (X axis) is well under 1%, most positive tests are false, & most negative results are true. This is called #BAYESTHEOREM.
Latest England estimates:
https://t.co/8hsZ1hNjD7
How to increase the prevalence of a rare disease from 0.01% to 1%? Test the asymptomatics. What prevalence do we estimate Covid19 at including asymptomatic tested? Less than 1%. What could the true prevalence be if we exclude asymptomatic testing? 0.01%. It's called #BayesTheorem
Proof that Matt Hancock is aware of #BayesTheorem, he mentions Bayesian mathematics: https://t.co/hpZYDzD5Pe
As Matt Hancock is clearly aware of #BayesTheorem, if he wanted to avoid the false positives being many more than the true positives, he would not say ONS is applying rigorous Bayesian mathematics, he would instead not implement testing of any asymptomatics not linked to a case.
Matt Hancock is pre-empting the #BayesTheorem false positive trap by mentioning Bayesian mathematics himself in reply. A Freudian slip, a lapsus which reveals what he is really thinking: how do I increase false positives to make Covid19 prevalence appear worse than it really is?
So how does he do it? He implements mass testing of asymptomatics in Universities, then schools. He uses the hierarchical power structures in these institutions to convince healthy students they need to be tested. The schools get closed on false positives, false fear is created.
#BAYESTHEOREM @ Cambridge University. 0.4% of 262 students came back as positive after the first "test". All came back as negative after the second. Government only tests once. ONS would say there is 0.4% prevalence instead it's 0%.
#BAYESTHEOREM @ Cambridge University. 0.5% of 1,937 students came back as positive after the first "test". All came back as negative after the second. Government only tests once. ONS would say there is 0.5% prevalence instead it's 0%.
Sorry this should say 0.4% of 263 students https://t.co/eSNnhyOI4n
See what happens in #BayesTheorem? Number of asymptomatic testing increases & the estimated prevalence of the disease increases!! This can be addressed by requiring confirmatory tests of those who test positive when numbers are small, otherwise DON'T test asymptomatics.
Cambridge Pooled Testing Report #BayesTheorem
https://t.co/BYIzoTl64c
To have the same number of false negatives as false positives you need a disease that is present in 30% of the population. Covid19 affects less than 1%. This means the false positives VASTLY outnumber both the real positives & the false negatives. It's called #BayesTheorem.
Matt Hancock claim: "the ONS report..address directly the question how the ONS adjusts for potential false positives, due to the high but not perfect specificity of the PCR test. I am very happy for one of my academics to take him through the rigorous Bayesian mathematics"
"I am very happy for one of my academics to take him through the rigorous Bayesian mathematics, which I am sure will help to elucidate the debate on this matter still further." @MattHancock to @DesmondSwayne
https://t.co/pZcFlMBKEZ
I am waiting for one of @MattHancock's academics to take us through this as I have seen no evidence of @ONS adjusting for false positives according to #BayesTheorem https://t.co/ykB67TJORe
Professor Emeritus in Public Health, University of Arizona:
https://t.co/aidVGWOVqH
WHO wakes up to #BayesTheorem https://t.co/nDKklwMhQe

More from Robin Monotti FRSA MA BSc

Robin Monotti
Robin Monotti
@robinmonotti
I’m not just a lockdown sceptic. I know lockdowns increase infections rather than decrease them because I read research first hand. I’m a citizen in a democracy who wants Government policy to be evidence-based, not epidemiological modelling based. Crazy, I know.

Lockdowns increase infections because they lower immunity & therefore increase the disease. After hospitals & care homes households account for the largest number of transmissions. Schools/universities act as a break in transmission of the disease. All evidence based.

Transmission does not mean infection. I can transmit SARSCoV2 but I can't transmit Covid19. Whether SARSCoV2 develops at all into mild or severe Covid19 depends entirely on the immune system of the recipient. Early treatment prevents severe Covid19, the right treatment cures it.

"Children act more as a brake on infection," said Prof. Reinhard Berner, the head of pediatric medicine at Dresden University Hospital and leader of the study. "Not every infection that reaches them is passed

Closing schools increases transmission of respiratory viral infection because children act as a break on the community transmission of the virus. We have known this since 1918:
https://t.co/TPRYQ1LAAJ
LOCKDOWNS
Robin Monotti MA FRSA \u2b50
Robin Monotti MA FRSA ...
@robinmonotti
They are now saying my tweets are misleading. It's another lie. They are the ones who are misleading, and I will now prove it in this thread. They are lying about the safety of the vaccines:

"Why was vaccination with the COVID-19 vaccine AstraZeneca suspended?" Paul-Erlich Federal Institute for Vaccines & Biomedicines,

"A specific form of severe cerebral venous thrombosis associated with platelet deficiency (thrombocytopenia) and bleeding has been identified in seven cases (as of 15 March 2021) in temporal association with vaccination with COVID-19 Vaccine AstraZeneca."

"1. It is a very serious disease that is also difficult to treat. Of the seven affected individuals, three individuals had died."

"2. The affected individuals had ages ranging from about 20 to 50 years."
CATEGORY C19
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Robin Monotti
Robin Monotti
@robinmonotti
Twitter removed 800 followers from my account today. People have been writing saying twitter automatically unfollowed me for them. Follow me on Parler @robinmonotti & Telegram https://t.co/o5rFaSrCpa to bypass this.

I have already left both Facebook & Instagram. We need to keep agile.

They will try to ban Parler, blaming it for Capitol theatre. I think Telegram may survive as it's not based in the

Yes Telegram owner @durov received & accepted what effectively is an award, not a partnership: the Young Global Leaders membership of the World Economic Forum in 2017. Does this mean he passes users info on? I don't think so.

This is what @Snowden had to say about @durov. Since then Telegram introduced the option of end to end encrypted chats not saved in Telegram servers. These private chats cannot be forwarded, and none of the participants can capture screenshots of
TWITTER
Robin Monotti FRSA \u2b50
Robin Monotti FRSA ⭐...
@robinmonotti
Italian researchers: vaccines will not work against SARSCoV2 because this virus does not only replicate in human cells like other viruses, this one replicates through bacteria too. This is the fundamental reason why antibiotics work & vaccines will not:

Here is the Italian-EU scientific study indicating SARSCoV2 replicates in bacteria, not only human cells, and that is why antibiotics work and these vaccines will not:

"The preliminary results suggest that SARS-CoV-2 replicates in bacterial

2 of the 4 authors of the study work at the European Commission. Another works at an Italian medical research facility called Craniomed: https://t.co/EETSM3nb3T


You can find all of CRANIOMED's Carlo Brogna's published scientific research articles here, take a look:
CATEGORY C19
Robin Monotti FRSA
Robin Monotti FRSA
@robinmonotti
I have studied the pandemic response of many countries. One of them got a key element right, which resulted in very few deaths: Japan. Their response was to keep people OUT of hospitals. A policy of early home treatment works best, hospitals only for severe cases & NO INTUBATIONS

JAPAN: "No restrictions were placed on residents’ movements, and businesses from restaurants to hairdressers stayed open. No high-tech apps that tracked people’s movements were deployed." RESULT: Among the lowest deaths in the

Saving the NHS simply means providing early treatment kits in pharmacies & avoiding hospitals for Covid19 patients. For Covid19 infections during a pandemic, hospitals are the problem, not the solution.

I have read accounts of people with high fever literally turned away from hospitals, yet being told by phone what treatment protocol to follow. That was the best pandemic response by far, NOT lockdowns.

JAPAN had some of the lowest Covid19 mortality in the world:
-NO LOCKDOWN
-NO TEST AND TRACE
-NO BUSINESS CLOSURES
-NO HOSPITAL FOR NON CRITICAL CASES
-HOME TREATMENT
-HEALTHY DIET
-LOW OBESITY
CATEGORY C19

More from Category c19

David Thunder
David Thunder
@davidjthunder
—TAKEAWAY LESSONS FROM PANDEMIC 2020-21: A THREAD—

Below, a few basic lessons I have drawn, as a political philosopher and informed citizen who has made it my business to closely follow political, social, economic, clinical, & epidemiological aspects of the pandemic:

1/ Most mainstream journalists cannot be relied upon to critically uncover, & impartially convey, the facts surrounding a complex & unfolding crisis. If you watch RTE, BBC, or CNN, you are fed naively one-sided stories laced with fear-mongering, misleading use of statistics, etc.

2/ If you wish to inform yourself about a public crisis like this pandemic, you must find commentators who have limited access to mainstream media, good credentials, & arguments that consider a wide range of available evidence. You need to be pro-active about diversifying sources

3/ Reliance by govts upon advisory committees with a clearly one-sided take on the pandemic (eg suppression at all cost) has led to catastrophic outcomes. Govts must diversify their scientific sources & encourage ROBUST scientific debate among their advisors.

4/ Hyper-centralised management of public health is ineffective. Decision-making power must be decentralised so that it can adapt quickly to local conditions. Care homes were badly hurt by top-down mandates that were sluggishly responsive to evolving conditions on the ground.
CATEGORY C19
Abir Ballan \U0001f60a
Abir Ballan 😊
@abirballan
All you need to know about COVID19
FACTS NOT FEAR

Covid 19 is a disease caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus. SARS-CoV-2 is one of 7 coronaviruses known to man. 1/n

The pandemic is real. Excess deaths were observed in many countries. Not all countries were affected in the same way due to pre-existing immunity, the health status of the population and demographics (the proportion of elderly in the population) 2/n
https://t.co/65elPq3gp5


COVID 19 presents a high risk for the very few and negligible risk for the many.

The infection fatality rate in different age groups:
<19 y, IFR= 0.003%
20-49 y: IFR= 0.02%
50-69 y: 0.5%
>70y, IFR=

Not everybody is susceptible to the virus. If reinfected, pre-existing immunity from related viruses gives protection from developing the disease or from developing serious symptoms.
4/n

“The evidence that a subset of people has a cross-reactive T cell repertoire through exposure to related coronaviruses is
COVID19 , CATEGORY C19
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Bobby Rajesh Malhotra \u30c4
Bobby Rajesh Malhotra ...
@Bobby_Network
Today we peek inside the current situation in Israel: how Netanyahu sold his people to Pfizer/BioNTech & Co, conducting mass-experiments on the populace, dividing the nation into a two-class society with a 𝓖𝖗𝖊𝖊𝖓 𝓟𝖆𝖘𝖘-push, thus entirely ignoring the Nuremberg Code.
⬇️


2/: 18th November 2020:

Israel’s health officials were desperate.

@Pfizer announced: Their vaccine was “95% effective VS COVID-19".

Israel had ordered millions of doses from @moderna_tx & @AstraZeneca, the @Pfizer/@BioNTech_Group-miracle cure was missing in their stock.


3/: How did Israel subsequently acquire an estimated four to five million doses of the Pfizer miracle in Dec 2020- enough to vaccinate at least two million people in Israel? Netanyahu wanted to outdo himself and show that he could single-handedly save the nation, thus the world.


4/: Meanwhile Donald Trump’s Operation Warp Speed had highest priority in the US, @netanyahu & Trump held secret negotiations w/ all major manufacturers at the same time. Both failed to disclose in their campaigns: COVID-19 mRNA-vaccines are experimental.

5/: @Pfizer/@BioNTech_Group & @moderna_tx mRNA vaccines (better call them gene therapies) haven’t yet completed phase 3 clinical trials.
Both mRNA miracle cures haven't been licensed by the @US_FDA, approved for “Emergency Use Authorization” (EUA) only.
CATEGORY C19 , CATEGORY C19
Robin Monotti FRSA
Robin Monotti FRSA
@robinmonotti
I have studied the pandemic response of many countries. One of them got a key element right, which resulted in very few deaths: Japan. Their response was to keep people OUT of hospitals. A policy of early home treatment works best, hospitals only for severe cases & NO INTUBATIONS

JAPAN: "No restrictions were placed on residents’ movements, and businesses from restaurants to hairdressers stayed open. No high-tech apps that tracked people’s movements were deployed." RESULT: Among the lowest deaths in the

Saving the NHS simply means providing early treatment kits in pharmacies & avoiding hospitals for Covid19 patients. For Covid19 infections during a pandemic, hospitals are the problem, not the solution.

I have read accounts of people with high fever literally turned away from hospitals, yet being told by phone what treatment protocol to follow. That was the best pandemic response by far, NOT lockdowns.

JAPAN had some of the lowest Covid19 mortality in the world:
-NO LOCKDOWN
-NO TEST AND TRACE
-NO BUSINESS CLOSURES
-NO HOSPITAL FOR NON CRITICAL CASES
-HOME TREATMENT
-HEALTHY DIET
-LOW OBESITY
CATEGORY C19
Abir Ballan \U0001f60a
Abir Ballan 😊
@abirballan
A brief tutorial in health education to show you how sound health education models have been used for manipulation instead of creating health awareness during the COVID 19 pandemic. We'll uses masks as an example of a health behavior.
Are you ready to explore? 1/n

The Health Belief Model (HBM) consists of 5 components: perceived threat (lethality + Susceptibility),
perceived benefits,
perceived barriers and
cues to action.

Familiarise yourself with the definition of each concept in this table. 2/n
https://t.co/1tOz1cJFvc


Study this diagram to understand how the components are interrelated. 3/n
https://t.co/iUoaqNkgyP


Now let’s apply this to the COVID 19 pandemic.
Review this diagram to see how the HBM applies to the behaviour of mask-wearing.
“perceived susceptibility appeared to be the most significant factor determining compliance” 4/n
https://t.co/xF6uwUx12N


Part I: The HBM
Increase the perceived threat of a disease
1) increase perceived severity: Confusing the general public with CFR & IFR- 2 indicators that are an order of magnitude apart.
People understood wrongly that the fatality rate of C19 is
CATEGORY C19 , CETEVORY C19

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A thread on the life and achievements of Muhiyudin Sayyid Abdul Qadir Jillani RadiAllah who served Islam infinitely as the Reviver (Mujadid) of the 11th Century!


Muhiyudin Sayyid Abdul Qadir Jilani (RA) was one of the greatest Islamic Saint, Scholar, and Jurist. The honorific Muhiyudin denotes his status with many Sufis as a "reviver of religion". Jilani refers to his place of birth. He also carried the epithet Baghdadi.

[1]

Sheikh Abdul Qadir Jilani was born on the eve of the 2nd of Ramadan 470 AH. His birth was a great blessing for the Ummah. It was the arrival of the Sultan al-Awliya (King of the Awliya) of that era, which had been foretold for centuries before his birth.

[2]

When Hazrat Abdul Qadir Jillani was asked by someone what brought him to his high spiritual level, he said, The truthfulness which I promised to my mother. He related the following story:
"One day, on the eve of Eid al-Adhā, I went to my mother, who was then a widow and..

[3]

..and requested her, 'Send me to the path of Truth, give me permission to go to Baghdad to acquire knowledge, to be with the wise and those who are close to Allah. She cried, but she brought out 80 pieces of gold, which was all that my father had left as inheritance.

[4]
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Vibhu Vashisth 🇮🇳...
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MAHARAJA CHHATRASAL BUNDELA was the great Bundela King who revolted against the Mughal ruler Aurangzeb.
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His ancesters were the vassals of Mughal Emperor. He drew inspiration from his father and revolted against the alien rule of Mughals. He was just 12 yrs old when his parents died in fight against the Mughal Army of Aurangzeb in 1661.

When his beloved father attained martyrdom in the year 166, the young Chatrasal was present in the last battle of his father against the Mughal and from these valiant campaigns,..

..he gathered the courage to free Bundelkhand from Aurangzeb’s rule.
He joined the Mughals initially, and was recommended by the Rajput King Mirza Jai Singh to be recruited in the Mughal Army in order to support their Deccan Campaigns.


But serving the alien rule of Mughals which brought chaos and misery to Bundelkhand was unacceptable for Chatrasal Bundela and his father’s incessant struggle against the Mughals kept the fire of independent Bundelkhand alive in his heart.
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1)King Porus was a famous Indian king, his real name was #Purushotama. He belonged to PURU tribe mentioned in #RIG_VEDA, the Ancient books of India.


2) Porus ruled the Punjab region and expanded his kingdom between the Jhelum River and Chenab River in the Indian Subcontinent. He was a legendary warrior and more war skills. He made the army most powerful with war skills. Even Alexander had also made difficulty to defeat Porus.

3)Word of Mouth Oral tradition in #Mohyal_Brahmin families since ancient times has kept the Great Saga of their Great Elder known to them as Maharaja “ #Puru” alive.

4) When #Alexander the Great invaded India in 326 BC he was challenged near Taxila by a mere chieftain of the Area. He was King #Porus, a #Vaid_Mohyal. After his encounter with Porus, Alexander met with more resistance near Multan where the forces were predominantly #Mohyal.

5)The Bali rulers of Multan fiercely engaged with Alexander's army in skirmishes in which many senior Generals died. Later during the long and bitter fighting in #Multan, Alexander got hurt by an arrow which pierced his chest ,
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Neo-nazi group #PatriotFront held a photo op in #Chicago last weekend & is currently marching around #DC so it's as good time as any to compile a list of their identified members for folks to watch for

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