Truly terrible takes you can expect to hear a lot more of over the next 2 months based on painful experience of the climate discourse - a thread.

It's endlessly fascinating how economic datapoints get interpreted.

When I was in charge of a P&L, the guy who ran Finance for us and I had what we called the 'shelf plan.'

There were maybe 3-4 of us who knew it existed.

What's a shelf plan?
1/

Well it's a plan you keep on the shelf (full FP&A model), that you hope you never have to use.

It reduces forward hires, cuts back various line items (typically ad spend, travel, that sort of thing).

Oh, it also has a big fat RIF in there.

That's why we don't talk about it.
2/

Why have a plan instead of winging it?

Because this is where companies (particularly young companies) sometimes err. They do little cuts - 2-3% here and there, preserving as much headcount as they can, that sort of thing.

This is incorrect.
3/

If you're at the point where you need to make material changes to your forward P&L, at 2-3% RIF will be followed by another.

And another.

And this series of progressive cuts will cripple morale, incrementally reducing the productivity of the staff you retain to survive.
4/

And so the shelf plan cuts deep.

Your goal is to go from being a peacetime machine to a wartime machine, so you gotta lean out quick. Can't do that without a plan, hence the need to have one.

~30% cut is what you need.

And then you need to tell everyone left they're safe.
5/

1. A thread on Downtown #Vancouver's office construction boom. When it's all said and done there will be roughly 10 million SQ FT of space will be added to just the core.

Here's a brief rundown on what is already approved and under construction...

2. We'll start with what is dubbed as Amazon's unofficial HQ2, or at the very least it's Canadian HQ. At 1.1 million SQ FT this is the largest office development in the city and will help shift DT east as it will house 7500 jobs once occupied.


3. The Amazon building is also significant because it will animate that stretch of West Georgia, Homer, Hamilton and Dunsmuir. It will no longer be a black hole for pedestrian activity. There will be approx. 185,000 square feet of retail and food hall space.

4. Next up is the Stack Tower to be anchored by EY. It's at the western edge of the Central Business District (CBD) and will become #Vancouver's tallest office building when complete. It clocks in at roughly 540,000 SQ FT and 530 feet in height.

5. Recently approved Steam Plant tower has a unique design and large floor plates. With nearly 600,000 SQ FT of office space, this is the second largest office tower that we could see. My bet is that this tower will start to take shape in a year or

The wealthiest person I know prints millions out of thin air in the real estate business.

This is what he does...

A thread.

He finds a distressed retail plaza. Let's say 50% of the space isn't leased.

On a 300,000 sf plaza that might mean 150k square feet is vacant.

If asking rent is $8 per square foot per year, that means the building has a "potential revenue" figure of of $2.4MM.

So in this retail center 50% is leased and 50% is vacant. So the actual revenue, right now, is $1.2MM.

Most retail leases are whats called "Triple Net" or "NNN". This means the tenant pays the taxes, insurance, maintenance and CAM (common area maintenance).

They basically pay all of the landlord's expenses (except debt service on any loans he/she has, of course).

Commercial properties are valued based on something called a "cap rate".

The equation is:

net operating income / (cap rate) = value

The cap rate is a %.

Think about it as the return on your money, annually, as a percentage, you spent to buy a property.