2/
The anger at whether Labour votes for the deal is one of the biggest, dullest non-issues of the day.
Its Johnson's deal - as he insists on telling us at every moment.
The ERG back it.
Labour's vote makes no difference either way.
I'd prefer Abstain - but I dont really care.
3/
Agonising over this is pointless.
A case can be made for all 3 options.
But ultimately its Johnson deal, the Conservatives deal and Labour MPs voting for it won't change that.
Nobody is going to come back & say it was Labour that brought this deal in 2 years time.
Let it go.
4/
A few people have been upset by comments Starmer wont seek to radically change UKs relationship with EU.
2 days before a deal comes in is not the day to say you will radically change it.
So what is Starmer thinking?
Consider...not 2024 - but 2021...
https://t.co/rANEPpWWeM
5/
Its very easy for English people to forget that 2 crucial things coming in 2021 will combine to constrain any UK govt policy on EU - regardless of what Westminister thinks:
1. Scottish elections
2. Northern Irish Census
6/
2021 Scot elections will see SNP majority govt with mandate for referendum.
They get the referendum & leave:
Brexit is known as the Tory policy that destoyed the union forever.
No referendum & its union in crisis & UK state struggling to smooth Brexit as much as possible.
7/
N Irish census will see not just confirmation unionist majority gone forever - but Nat/Cath majority for 1st time.
UK will be absolutely paranoid from then on not to give anymore incentive to vote out.
Scot + NIre are an existential threat for UK.
https://t.co/0SYKFE2NPe
8/
Its always a bad idea to "sell utopia with a fixed date" as what do you do when the date comes?
Brexit - even if not an utter disaster - will be at best a dull dispointment of redtape & reduced oppotunities.
And I'll let you into a secret - 75% of voters don't care for it.
9/
Majority of voters in 2021 will want jobs + decent services + UK not being dismantled.
Only way to get this is getting as close with EU as possible.
And the way to do this is keeping Johnson's deal...then expanding on it come the review in 2026.
To prepare for rejoin....
10/
1. Johnson's deal
2. 2026 Review
3. Rejoin
In that order.
A lot of remainers seem to believe that:
"Rejoining EU will make UK a decent country again."
It won't.
Making the UK a decent country again, solves the EU issue as rejoin becomes not just logical, but inevitable.
11/
in 2016 remainers lost partly as they had difficult arguing against a Brexit nostalgic-utopia,
In 2021-24
Brexietrs will desperately oversee a stuttering economy while bits of the country threaten to (or actually) fall off.
Voters will want competence.
& no EU craziness.
12/
My best outcome?
Competent PM in 2026 not constrained in brexit culture war mud goes to Brussels to sort out lots of dull "techinical fine tuning" (sotto voce: EU alignment) with our 500 million neighbour.
If you have a better, more plausible, idea please tell me.
/Ends
ADD 1
I see alot of remainers arguing
"If Labour doesnt vote against it then Tories will blame them like Iraq war or LibDems with tuition fees"
But if Brexit reaches the stage Tories are comparing it to these - I'll be overjoyed as it means they think its an unpopular disaster.
