This amounts to a 25% value reduction for the EU gradually over this period
Ok, here's my first bash at how I think UK-EU fisheries will be managed in future now we have the agreement
It’s quite complicated in parts, so would appreciate any corrections…
@StevePeers @BD_Stew @AntonSpisak (& others)
This amounts to a 25% value reduction for the EU gradually over this period
By 31 Jan, a schedule must be agreed for talks, culminating in final agreement by 10 December (this fits in with the internal EU fisheries negotiation)
I.e. it continues the status quo but prevents a fish grab in the provisional period
Further provisional access can be negotiated thereafter if there's still no overall agreement
This basically has three levels:
1) reduction of fishing access and tariffs on fish
2) tariffs on other goods
3) suspension of other parts of the trade and economic partnership
In other words, they don’t have to apply 1) and 2) first
i.e. one side could warn the other that provisional access would not continue in 2 weeks' time, but retaliation couldn’t apply until then
If it’s yes and yes, then fine; if it’s no to either, they must be removed or changed
However, doing so would also automatically terminate the trade, aviation and road transport sections (a high price!)
i.e. if UK terminated in May 2021, EU fishing rights would continue until the end of December 2022
More from Brexit
On this, I think it’s highly unlikely to occur in the timeframe given. For several reasons, I don’t think it’s realistic for Scotland to secede, and then join the EU, in 9 years.
For that, thanks goes to Brexit.
A thread because why not...
Two important dates: March 2016 and January 1st 2021.
Firstly, prior to the 2014 referendum, the Nationalists proposed a date of March 2016 to secede.
Secondly, today - the end completion of Brexit five-and-a-half years after Cameron’s majority in 2015.
Brexit has demonstrated many things, primarily that splitting unions is not easy. The UKs membership of the EU was 47 years and by the end it was not at the heart of the EU. The Union has existed for over 300 as a unitary state.
Dividing a unitary state, like the UK, will not be easy. Frankly, it will make Brexit look simple. Questions of debt, currency, defence, and more will need to be resolved ... something not addressed with Brexit.
Starting with debt. Scotland will end up with its proportionate share of the UKs national debt. It’s not credible to suggest otherwise. Negotiating what is proportionate won’t be easy when both sides disagree.
It’s importance will be seen shortly.
For that, thanks goes to Brexit.
A thread because why not...
On the current trajectory, I think this is likely to be the map of Europe of 2030. pic.twitter.com/65i1A8CiP8
— Ben Judah (@b_judah) January 1, 2021
Two important dates: March 2016 and January 1st 2021.
Firstly, prior to the 2014 referendum, the Nationalists proposed a date of March 2016 to secede.
Secondly, today - the end completion of Brexit five-and-a-half years after Cameron’s majority in 2015.
Brexit has demonstrated many things, primarily that splitting unions is not easy. The UKs membership of the EU was 47 years and by the end it was not at the heart of the EU. The Union has existed for over 300 as a unitary state.
Dividing a unitary state, like the UK, will not be easy. Frankly, it will make Brexit look simple. Questions of debt, currency, defence, and more will need to be resolved ... something not addressed with Brexit.
Starting with debt. Scotland will end up with its proportionate share of the UKs national debt. It’s not credible to suggest otherwise. Negotiating what is proportionate won’t be easy when both sides disagree.
It’s importance will be seen shortly.
