BC BREXIT
Saved by @Alex1Powell

1. We are currently staring over the precipice of no deal. Everyone, including many of those who argued for Brexit, understand the damage it would do, especially at the same time as the Covid economic crisis and the end of the transition period. We are facing a perfect storm.

 2. It’s pretty clear now that the level playing field is the cause of the deadlock. It seems that the UK and the EU have already agreed a non-regression clause – ie that both sides won’t reduce existing standards on things like environmental protection and workers rights.
3. But the issue is what happens if EU standards diverge from ours in the years ahead and vice versa. In other words, how do you make sure that the playing field that both sides run out onto on 1 Jan remains level in the years ahead?
4. In the Political Declaration both sides signed up to robust level playing field commitments to “prevent distortions of trade and unfair competitive advantages.” That’s why both the UK and the EU should want a mechanism for ensuring that the terms of trade remain fair.
5. The other consideration is that trust was undermined by the row over the Internal Market Bill. Seeking to renege on part of a Treaty you negotiated a year ago is not a very good idea, especially when you’re trying to negotiate a new Treaty with the same partners now.
6. The areas of dispute are these. How do you identify whether different standards are in practice affecting fair competition? Who decides? And at what point in the process can one side take action against the other to ‘re-level’ the playing field?
7. The other issue is that because this arrangement will last for a very long time, both sides are trying to protect their interests and guard against something happening in future which they don’t want.
8. One way of avoiding the problem for now would be to have a review clause; ie an agreement that after say 5 yrs both sides could look at these LPF rules and the link to the degree of access that the UK has been given to the EU single market and decide whether they are working.
9. This would allow time to see whether the concerns – the UK view of sovereignty on the one hand and the EU fear that the UK will gain a competitive advantage over German, French and other countries’ firms on the other - is really something that we need to worry about.
10. Both sides need a deal - after all jumping off a cliff isn’t going to be good for anyone.
What’s needed now is a willingness on both sides to sort this out in the interests of all our futures.

More from Brexit

Alliance of British Entrepreneurs
Alliance of British En...
@AllianceBE
🇬🇧 Happy Independence Day patriots 🇬🇧

Its Day 1 outside the #EU so we wanted to remind you of all the things Remainers told you would happen on #Brexit day.

Never in the history of political movements has one side fibbed so spectacularly and (at times) hilariously.

[THREAD]

[1] How are you all feeling today...down there?🍆

Well please be careful because now we've left the EU we are all due waves of super gonorrehoea.

Wrapping yourself in the #EU flag and putting #FBPE in your bio is the only known

[2] Are you hungry? Well get used to it.

We were fed (excuse the pun) stories as late as November 2020 that #Brexit would lead to 60% reduction in haulage meaning 'months' of food shortages.

[3] Forget those foreign holidays unless you fancy swimming the Channel.

As late as October 2020 we were told that all flights would be grounded.

Both sides quietly agreed to contingencies in December. Quelle

[4] In March 2020 as COVID hit Europe, we were told the only way to obtain ventilators was by joining the #EU scheme. We refused and Remainers screeched that the Government was putting Brexit over breathing.

The EU scheme obtained...zero...ventilators.
BREXIT
Peter Foster
Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
🚨🚨🚨🇪🇺🇬🇧🚛🚒🇪🇺🇬🇧🚨🚨🚨 serious #brexit story alert - companies now starting to see penny drop on what rules of origin does to supply chains (food for example) but Brussels seems deaf to both EU & U.K. pleading. A bellwether? 😬 Stay with me. 1/


So first the problem: its a tad complicated but basically goods that are imported into UK and then 'hubbed' onwards into Ireland or other parts of the EU are facing full EU tariffs - this is particularly bad for food stuffs, which attract high tariffs. Why is this? /2

It's a function of the Rules of Origin clauses that mean that goods have to sufficiently "originate" in the UK to qualify for zero-tariff entry to EU (and vice versa).

But to qualify, you have to do something to the goods - process them or add value - not just punt them on /3

The brilliant @AnnaJerzewska does a better job than me of explaining, but the important thing is that this is a nightmare for companies that 'hub' /distribute products through the UK - and that's both EU and UK companies /4


So both the @Foodanddrinkfed and EU groups like @CAOBISCO_EU (chocs etc) say they want the EU Commission to fix this with a derogation/waiver that takes into account proximity and interdependence of EU/UK supply chains. /5
BREXIT
Advertisement
Chris Randone
Chris Randone
@ChrisRandone
Many bearish sentiments across the mortgage sector because they believe companies won't succeed as much when rate finally go back up (3 maybe 4 years from now). Which makes sense except for $GHIV and here's why. In 2016 Brexit came & rates went down which lead to huge success...

in mortgages. Business was great for many companies but then in ‘17 and ‘18, rates went up. What happened you might ask? A lot of people got compressed, margins got compressed, rates went down, & people struggled in the mortgage market...

Well UWM ( $GHIV ) compound annual growth rate, from ‘16 to ’18, was 28%. Companies that focused on refi struggled, so obviously a very successful company like Rocket or Quicken, they went down 14% in compound annual growth rate in those years...

$GHIV actually grew, and so did their profits, so the opportunity to continue to grow in all cycles is a big differentiator for UWM, and the broker channel versus a lot of our competitors. When rates rise, it's actually even better for $GHIV (UWM)..

If rates stay low, great UWM will continue to crush but when the rates rise, they will continue to steal even more market share because of how they operate in the mortgage sector. People also talk about the speed in closing a loan & that other competitors are faster...
BREXIT
Holger Hestermeyer
Holger Hestermeyer
@hhesterm
It is time to talk Brexit and standards again. (thread)


Let's start off with: I don't think any trade experts are surprised by this. It is why the TCA did not do much on SPS. It is why the EU did not offer much on SPS. It is why the UK did not ask much on SPS.

But it also shows that the popular slogan "after Brexit we'll have the same standards as before, so why would anything change in trade" was wrong - and worse, it was purposefully trying to stifle a necessary debate.

And this leads me to the next point: I have no issue with changing the rules, I have a massive issue with how it is done. Here's what we should discuss:

The decisive question: What are the standards the UK as a country wants. To inform this debate, we need the following information:
BREXIT
David Henig
David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Today's UK-EU trade deal reflection - what is rarely stated in discussions about the deal's shortcomings is that they reflect UK government policy choices - in particular that control of immigration and a US trade deal are a higher priority than an EU deal.

Thus, why was it not a UK government priority to secure for UK musicians the rights to tour the EU? Because that would probably have required a reciprocal right to be given to those in the EU, which we didn't want to give. Choice.

Meanwhile why did the UK government not seek or secure a reduction in food inspections for GB products going to the EU? Because that would probably have required fixing food regulations in a way that might have been an obstacle to a US trade deal.

Works the other way as well. Why did the EU refuse UK requests on mutual recognition of industrial testing? In part at least because of UK lack of commitment on maintaining the previous EU system of standards and conformity assessment which might be a problem in a US deal.

One of the strangest opinions in the London politics bubble is that the UK government isn't that bothered about a US trade deal, as it so obviously goes against the evidence. There might be domestic opposition, but this was to be Brexit Dividend Number 1.
BREXIT

You May Also Like

Julien \U0001f332
Julien 🌲
@julien
1/ there is this sense when you are young that your accomplishments need to be a list of things that seem impressive to others. A list of several items you did.

This isn't actually right, so here is another suggestion.

2/ I remember being 26 and writing about reading 52 books a year. I wrote blog posts about it. They got copied. It became "a thing." Now it's in Twitter bios. It looks impressive but it's insanely useless and I shouldn't have done it.

3/ what I should have known at that time is that only young idiots like myself, with no accomplishments, find list of tiny achievements impressive. Anyone who has actually done anything of substance doesn't gaf

4/ what is actually difficult, and worthwhile, instead is to do ONE single thing for a very, very long time. It's much harder and much rarer and results in outlier outcomes much more often.

Of course you can find this out too late if you are chasing the dragon of Ted talks etc

5/ if I had only worked on a startup for a year, I would've gotten nowhere, the same way that if you lift for 3 months, it achieves nothing. Everything good in life comes from perseverance, but at the beginning, you're just like "I need to be somebody!!!"
LIFE
Kavita
Kavita
@Kavitastocks
There are many strategies in market 📉and it's possible to get monthly 4% return consistently if you master 💪in one strategy .
One of those strategies which I like is Iron Fly✈️

Few important points on Iron fly stategy

This is fixed loss🔴 defined stategy ,so you are aware of your losses . You know your risk ⚠️and breakeven points to exit the positions.
Risk is defined , so at psychological🧠 level you are at peace🙋‍♀️

How to implement
1. Should be done on Tuesday or Wednesday for next week expiry after 1-2 pm
2. Take view of the market ,looking at daily chart
3. Then do weekly iron fly.
4. No need to hold this till expiry day .

5.Exit it one day before expiry or when you see more than 2% within the week.
5. High vix is preferred for iron fly
6. Can be executed with less capital of 3-5 lakhs .
https://t.co/MYDgWkjYo8 have R:2R so over all it should be good.

8. If you are able to get 6% return monthly ,it means close to 100% return on your capital per annum.
ALL , OPTIONSLEARNINGS
Advertisement
Laurie Voss
Laurie Voss
@seldo
The 2018 State of JavaScript survey is out. They got 20,000 responses and have some delicious, delicious data. I'mma thread in some highlights:

First up: JavaScript flavors. There's TypeScript at 47% adoption, a tad higher than npm's own survey results (which said 46%). npm's survey is coming up again soon and will ask about TypeScript in a lot more detail.


I really, *really* like SoJ's "would not use again" question, which lets people who've abandoned a tech self-identify. This is noticeable in the graph above with Flow users -- 41% of people who've used Flow say they wouldn't use it again.

Now JavaScript frameworks. It's been a full year since npm's survey, so these numbers differ from ours in the directions I expected:
React 65% (vs. 60%)
Vue 29% (vs. 24%)
Ember 5% (vs 4%, I was expecting a bigger rise)

But there's a shocker in here: Angular.


npm's survey had Angular at 40% last year and SoJ has it at either:
- 58% (if you include those who don't want to use it again)
- 24% (if you count only those who like it)
Since npm's question didn't ask if they intend to *continue* using it I think that might explain this.
TECH
The Light - Truthpaper
The Light - Truthpaper
@LightTruthpaper
Latest update from @TheBernician

1/19

Hancock, Whitty, Vallance & Ferguson Stand Accused of Pandemic Fraud.

After yet more damning evidence arose last week, further additions had to be made to the court papers, which we are now aiming to lay in the coming week.

2/19

The four defendants will be Matt Hancock, Chris Whitty, Patrick Vallance and Neil Ferguson, each of whom has inextricable and ultimately incriminating connections with Bill Gates and Big Pharma.

3/19

As well as three counts of fraud by false representation and seven counts of fraud by non-disclosure, under sections 2 and 3 of the Fraud Act 2006, we can now also prove that the entire worldwide scamdemic originated on these shores.

4/19

In fact, we can show that, without the dishonest statements and non-disclosures of the four defendants we are initially proceeding against, COVID-1984 would not have transpired.

5/19

Furthermore, the 1st defendant, Matt Hancock, cannot rely upon the defence of Parliamentary Privilege, on the ground that none of the evidence relied upon by the prosecution is capable of preventing parliamentarians from carrying out their lawful business in Parliament.
CULTURE
Jijo Sunny
Jijo Sunny
@JijoSunny
1/ 👋 Excited to share what we’ve been building at https://t.co/GOQJ7LjQ2t + we are going to tweetstorm our progress every week!

Week 1 highlights: getting shortlisted for YC W2019🤞, acquiring a premium domain💰, meeting Substack's @hamishmckenzie and Stripe CEO @patrickc 🤩

2/ So what is Brew?

brew / bru : / to make (beer, coffee etc.) / verb: begin to develop 🌱

A place for you to enjoy premium content while supporting your favorite creators. Sort of like a ‘Consumer-facing Patreon’ cc @jackconte

(we’re still working on the pitch)

3/ So, why be so transparent? Two words: launch strategy.

jk 😅 a) I loooove doing something consistently for a long period of time b) limited downside and infinite upside (feedback, accountability, reach).
cc @altimor, @pmarca


4/ https://t.co/GOQJ7LjQ2t domain 🍻

It started with a cold email. Guess what? He was using BuyMeACoffee on his blog, and was excited to hear about what we're building next. Within 2w, we signed the deal at @Escrowcom's SF office. You’re a pleasure to work with @MichaelCyger!

5/ @ycombinator's invite for the in-person interview arrived that evening. Quite a day!

Thanks @patio11 for the thoughtful feedback on our YC application, and @gabhubert for your directions on positioning the product — set the tone for our pitch!
TECH