Your regular reminder that Brexit is going badly because the UK has still to decide what the purpose of leaving the EU is

1/

#EUref came about as piece of party mgt by Cameron, rather than as culmination of considered and structured debate about UK's place in the world

2/
Yes, we talked a lot (A LOT) about 'Europe' and the EU, but primarily as a function of lots of other things

A touchstone of dissent, if you will (h/t @PaulAdamTaggart)

3/
Referendum campaigns on both sides were simply about getting people to vote their way, not efforts to set out settled plans of What Comes Next

"Vote for us and everything will be dandy" is not a plan

4/
That might have been alright if post-vote there had been a national discussion on how to proceed in an inclusive manner, but instead the political logic pointed to trying to capture the meaning of it all to serve particular agendas

All very majoritarian, as per

5/
However, absent robust parliamentary majorities, May couldn't own the narrative, but nor could any one else

Cue fudging and obfuscation. And battles over dominance that were (again) more about being top dog than any sense of where the UK might be going

6/
And so it went until 2019, when someone finally had a solid majority in the Commons to do what they wanted

However, that someone was Johnson, someone not given to strategic vision, but instead to rolling with the good times
7/
Unfortunately for him, we are already in a situation where good times cannot be built from the objective geopolitical or economic facts.

And maybe not even from the subjective tropes of 'taking back control'

It's a choice from various problematic options

8/
Hence the indecision

Which only makes things more difficult down the line

9/
And behind all this, we still don't know what Brexit is for, in the sense of having anything like a national consensus, or even just a meaningful government policy.

Crisis management isn't it

10/
So however the next week and month plays out, I'm confident that we'll still be in the same position we have been since 2016: disappointed and frustrated

11/
That's not good for the UK, for the obvious reason that were going to have a lot more of All This [expansive hand gesture]

But also for a less obvious reason

12/
All this is very tiring and annoying, not to mention unstable

So it's still there for the picking

And you might not like who is doing that picking

13/
So if you want to avoid a future that you really won't like, then you need need to try to shape the debate, to find common ground, to build something that includes

14/
Because if you don't, then someone else will, and other people might not be as good about those things as you are

/end

More from Brexit

A quote from this excellent piece, neatly summarising a core impact of Brexit.

The Commission’s view, according to several sources, is that Brexit means existing distribution networks and supply chains are now defunct and will have to be replaced by other systems.


Of course, this was never written on the side of a bus. And never acknowledged by government. Everything was meant to be broadly fine apart from the inevitable teething problems.

It was, however, visible from space to balanced observers. You did not have to be a trade specialist to understand that replacing the Single Market with a third country trade arrangement meant the end of many if not all of the complex arrangements optimised for the former.

In the absence of substantive mitigations, the Brexit winners are those who subscribe to some woolly notion of ‘sovereignty’ and those who did not like freedom of movement. The losers are everyone else.

But, of course, that’s not good enough. For understandable reasons Brexit was sold as a benefit not a cost. The trading benefits of freedom would far outweigh the costs. Divergence would benefit all.

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