👉You can do this by experimenting, cultivating serendipity,
🚫not taking bell curves too seriously, and investing in lots of small outlier but high-risk opportunities.
10 Key Lessons From the Book “Black Swan” By: Nassim Taleb
⚡️Book Review⚡️
👉You can do this by experimenting, cultivating serendipity,
🚫not taking bell curves too seriously, and investing in lots of small outlier but high-risk opportunities.
- Extremely impactful
- Are outlier events
- Are retrospectively predictable, not prospectively predictable
🚫Try to avoid situations that can fool you in a huge way, and avoid depending on huge, and potentially harmful predictions.
Surviving until tomorrow could mean that you’re either more likely to be immortal, or closer to death.
👉Both of these conclusions are based on the same exact data.
👉We can master things in one field and fail to transfer the same to another.
Everyone has their own limitations when it comes to learning from experience or observation.
This means that people who tinker a lot to collect as many black swans as possible get the most opportunities.
👉You increase your chances of luck by doing things.
Our tendency to assume that we understand what’s going on in this incredibly complex and largely random world is a result of:
- The narrative fallacy and retrospective
- Illusions of understanding
We tend to categorize and simplify the world to make it easier for us to navigate it meaningfully.
👉However, we do this at the expense of ruling out black swans and becoming blind to them.
👉As an example:
97% of book sales are made by only about 20% of the authors, which conforms to the Wilfredo Pareto’s 80/20 principle.
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“We don’t negotiate salaries” is a negotiation tactic.
Always. No, your company is not an exception.
A tactic I don’t appreciate at all because of how unfairly it penalizes low-leverage, junior employees, and those loyal enough not to question it, but that’s negotiation for you after all. Weaponized information asymmetry.
Listen to Aditya
And by the way, you should never be worried that an offer would be withdrawn if you politely negotiate.
I have seen this happen *extremely* rarely, mostly to women, and anyway is a giant red flag. It suggests you probably didn’t want to work there.
You wish there was no negotiating so it would all be more fair? I feel you, but it’s not happening.
Instead, negotiate hard, use your privilege, and then go and share numbers with your underrepresented and underpaid colleagues. […]
Always. No, your company is not an exception.
A tactic I don’t appreciate at all because of how unfairly it penalizes low-leverage, junior employees, and those loyal enough not to question it, but that’s negotiation for you after all. Weaponized information asymmetry.
Listen to Aditya
"we don't negotiate salaries" really means "we'd prefer to negotiate massive signing bonuses and equity grants, but we'll negotiate salary if you REALLY insist" https://t.co/80k7nWAMoK
— Aditya Mukerjee, the Otterrific \U0001f3f3\ufe0f\u200d\U0001f308 (@chimeracoder) December 4, 2018
And by the way, you should never be worried that an offer would be withdrawn if you politely negotiate.
I have seen this happen *extremely* rarely, mostly to women, and anyway is a giant red flag. It suggests you probably didn’t want to work there.
You wish there was no negotiating so it would all be more fair? I feel you, but it’s not happening.
Instead, negotiate hard, use your privilege, and then go and share numbers with your underrepresented and underpaid colleagues. […]
