I like this heuristic, and have a few which are similar in intent to it:

Hiring efficiency:

How long does it take, measured from initial expression of interest through offer of employment signed, for a typical candidate cold inbounding to the company?

What is the *theoretical minimum* for *any* candidate?
How long does it take, as a developer newly hired at the company:

* To get a fully credentialed machine issued to you
* To get a fully functional development environment on that machine which could push code to production immediately
* To solo ship one material quanta of work
How long does it take, from first idea floated to "It's on the Internet", to create a piece of marketing collateral.

(For bonus points: break down by ambitiousness / form factor.)
How many people have to say yes to do something which is clearly worth doing which costs $5,000 / $15,000 / $250,000 and has never been done before.
How long would it take an employee, utterly convinced that the CEO needed to know a material fact urgently, to communicate it to the CEO.

How long would it take the CEO to acknowledge receipt. (Would it be by their designate?)
Given that you have the full name of a coworker, how long does it take to determine:

* who their manager is
* what their title or role is
* what their primary project as of today is
Everything breaks and the world is on fire.

How long:

* Until the first responder responds
* Until the second responder responds
* Until someone says the local equivalent of "I am in charge of the incident."
A coworker is in obvious distress for uncertain reasons.

How long until someone offers to help?

How long until someone factually helps effectively?
An idea is floated for a new business unit / product / whatever the local equivalent is given company/industry/stage.

How long until it launches into the hands of customers who perceive it as a generally available offering?
How many keystrokes would be required to do an A/B test of the H1 on the homepage?

How many minutes from first keystroke to first person seeing it in production?

(I'm being very generous to the software industry here. *sigh*)
How long does it take an email from an unrecognized email address to the most generic tier 1 support alias to reach a senior responsible engineer / lawyer / executive given clear relevance to them?
What percentage of emails which an omnipotent, benevolent deity would route to a senior responsible engineer / lawyer / executive factually make it from tier 1 customer support to a senior responsible engineer / lawyer / executive?
You might sensibly read these heuristics and think "Hmm, you seem to over-focus on speed. Aren't quality, price, etc also really important?"

These questions don't *really* test for speed. They test for *repeatable competence at scale*, which is another thing entirely.
Incidentally these make good questions to get informal reads on companies and/or fill the "So, any questions for me?" part of interviews, because they're much more specific than "Do you like working here?", less likely to elicit social desirability bias in answers, etc.

More from Patrick McKenzie

There are a *lot* of software shops in the world that would far rather have one more technical dependency than they'd like to pay for one of their 20 engineers to become the company's SPOF expert on the joys of e.g. HTTP file uploads, CSV parsing bugs, PDF generation, etc.


Every year at MicroConf I get surprised-not-surprised by the number of people I meet who are running "Does one thing reasonably well, ranks well for it, pulls down a full-time dev salary" out of a fun side project which obviates a frequent 1~5 engineer-day sprint horizontally.

"Who is the prototypical client here?"

A consulting shop delivering a $X00k engagement for an internal system, a SaaS company doing something custom for a large client or internally facing or deeply non-core to their business, etc.

(I feel like many of these businesses are good answers to the "how would you monetize OSS to make it sustainable?" fashion, since they often wrap a core OSS offering in the assorted infrastructure which makes it easily consumable.)

"But don't the customers get subscription fatigue?"

I think subscription fatigue is far more reported by people who are embarrassed to charge money for software than it is experienced by for-profit businesses, who don't seem to have gotten pay-biweekly-for-services fatigue.

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I’m torn on how to approach the idea of luck. I’m the first to admit that I am one of the luckiest people on the planet. To be born into a prosperous American family in 1960 with smart parents is to start life on third base. The odds against my very existence are astronomical.


I’ve always felt that the luckiest people I know had a talent for recognizing circumstances, not of their own making, that were conducive to a favorable outcome and their ability to quickly take advantage of them.

In other words, dumb luck was just that, it required no awareness on the person’s part, whereas “smart” luck involved awareness followed by action before the circumstances changed.

So, was I “lucky” to be born when I was—nothing I had any control over—and that I came of age just as huge databases and computers were advancing to the point where I could use those tools to write “What Works on Wall Street?” Absolutely.

Was I lucky to start my stock market investments near the peak of interest rates which allowed me to spend the majority of my adult life in a falling rate environment? Yup.