The farther we move from the average, chances of occurrence go down. This is what Taleb sahab calls Tail risk, because it lies in the tail of the standard distribution curve.
Bringing Data Science to Nifty Analysis. A small ЁЯз╡
As per Normal Distribution 68% of the time movement is with 1% SD Limits.
For 95% pf the times movement is within 2% SD limits.
And its only 0.3% of the times that movement exceeds 3 SD.
The farther we move from the average, chances of occurrence go down. This is what Taleb sahab calls Tail risk, because it lies in the tail of the standard distribution curve.
https://t.co/HHwUpIXTRG
The Galton Machine shows order from randomness. Each ball bounces left or right at random, 12 times, but together where they fall can be predicted - the normal distribution. This one made by: https://t.co/oI9wOGq7nG pic.twitter.com/VQtVu66OSE
— Tom Stafford (@tomstafford) April 19, 2018
When we say that price is at upper/lower Bollinger band, we are saying that it has reached 2 SD limits and likely to reverse.
First with default setting and in second change settings to 3 standard deviation.
Crossing 3 SD boundary means that Nifty is now in very rare territory where it has been only 0.3%
More from Professor
More pointers to help in identifying whether its accumulation or Distribution.
Lest some charlie jumps to point out, let me make it clear that I haven't invented anything in stock market, all my knowledge of stock market comes from old farts. Just my observation is my own. https://t.co/uHNw8tV4AO
Lest some charlie jumps to point out, let me make it clear that I haven't invented anything in stock market, all my knowledge of stock market comes from old farts. Just my observation is my own. https://t.co/uHNw8tV4AO
Plz advice how to identify accumulation and distribution phase...... to me Both looks same
— VIVEK VAID (@bobvaid) February 12, 2022
Crude Oil forming bottom at US$ 100 for now, which is a big psychological level.
Needs to break below this level for real impact. https://t.co/r5KoExzFKc
Needs to break below this level for real impact. https://t.co/r5KoExzFKc
NYMEX Crude Oil update !
— Professor (@DillikiBiili) July 1, 2022
Its not ready to come below US$ 100 which is a big psychological level ! Everytime it comes near that zone, it takes a bounce. https://t.co/xQ3dZZXNiu pic.twitter.com/7WS38JU6JF