Conviction | Patience's Threads

#Bicara presented clinical data from the lead immunotherapy program, BCA101, at ASCO 2021 - June 2021

Title: First-in-human phase I study of the bifunctional EGFR/TGF\u03b2 fusion protein BCA101 in patients with EGFR-driven advanced solid cancers

Unseen Bicara Pipeline\U0001f9ec https://t.co/bMhtUEnw0C pic.twitter.com/cz6V5BLeuc
— Punit (@punitbansal14) June 17, 2021

Conviction | Patience
@unseenvalue

Paraphrasing @tusharbohra on @IIC_Conference today ::

"If 10 commodity companies are doing capex at the same time, it signals a peak. If 10 companies in Chemicals/API/Pharma are doing capex in different products at the same time - it probably signals the start of a New Era" 🇮🇳🇮🇳

Sajal Kapoor
@unseenvalue

Proof of pudding is in eating

https://t.co/WhcL2pcTaJ

#Biocon @RemindMe_OfThis on 1 May 2022

Conviction | Patience
@unseenvalue

Affordable and Accessible research and innovation in an unseen olympics where many Indian companies win 🥇 and make the country proud. US enterprises are way ahead in cutting-edge Lab R&D, but they come to 🇮🇳 for scale-up and affordable manufacturing (CDMO model).

Go 🇮🇳 Go 👏👏

Watch the journey of\xa0Insulin Glargine's landmark USFDA approval for first interchangeable #biosimilar for the treatment of diabetes, a testament to #BioconBiologics' scientific excellence & robust quality comparibility data. https://t.co/JSM4LPqYdh
— Biocon (@Bioconlimited) August 1, 2021

Conviction | Patience
@unseenvalue

Biosciences is the space to track and follow globally. Sector offers extra large opportunity landscape. Shared the full thesis in that April webinar. Convinced that 🧬 will throw many big compounders in next few years.

#Fermentation #Biotechnology

Sajal Kapoor
@unseenvalue

Tomorrow is 3rd Thursday of this month 🙂

Sajal Kapoor
@unseenvalue

Animal Pharma innovators are actively looking at competent, reliable API/CDMO partners.

"We predict that the sourcing, partnering, development and funding of innovation will be more transformational and significant the next five years than ever before in animal health" - #Elanco

Conviction | Patience
@unseenvalue

ACDEGTVZ 🇺🇸 and SBLSKRP2 🇮🇳 are an unequal weight "genetically modified" high 🔥🔥 global 🧬🧬 basket.

Emphasis : "unequal" weight. In a Sunday buffet - can have extra large portion of what you really enjoy eating, by ignoring other not so tasty or healthy things 🧫🧬

Sajal Kapoor
@unseenvalue

Before recording this webinar, used Brinzolamide API to improve vision 👁️

Keywords :: Brinzolamide API vision

"I see Reliance also moving in the clean energy space.":)
3:30:43 onwards @unseenvalue https://t.co/d7irthqo6q
— Intrinsic Compounding (@soicfinance) July 2, 2021

Sajal Kapoor
@unseenvalue

MCap is a function of market sentiments. Balance sheet, cash flows, R&D execution, talent acquisition, regulatory compliance, M&As and so on....are a function of management/governance. Never mix the business with the stock. Stock is not the business. Business is not the stock :)

It's simple, if ""FY23 PAT of this API to CDMO = FY21 PAT of largest pure-play CDMO/API"" then the FY23 Mcap of this API/CDMO= FY21 Mcap of largest pure-play CDMO/API, am I correct Sajal saab??
— richman (@greatrichman3) June 14, 2021

Sajal Kapoor
@unseenvalue

If cash flow is not growing / compounding - why do you expect the share price to make newer ATHs ?

Ultimately, the stock price is a function of underlying business and the quality of cash flows

"Quality vs Quantity" of cash matters. Small and Mid Pharma have outperformed Large!

Conviction | Patience
@unseenvalue

Many stock specific questions on my DM or otherwise remain unanswered. Have shared my thesis, process/framework over many months and would encourage you all to find your own process that suits your very own genome. Learn to do that hard leg-work. Put that effort. Survive. Thrive.

[Free CDMO Masterclass #18] https://t.co/208eQbYKEF

[Free Art of Investing] https://t.co/bHvUqnpiTE

[Paid IIC Dec 2020 on SeQuent] https://t.co/3iDO438Et9

[Charity fund raise on Unseen Trends in Biotechnology] https://t.co/eNi1x1qwhH

[Q&A on APIs] https://t.co/EQGz007a9S
— Conviction | Patience (@unseenvalue) July 25, 2021

Conviction | Patience
@unseenvalue

Unseen rule 1 :: whatever be the reason, never justify the valuations of a rising stock price

Unseen rule 2 :: whatever be the reason, never defend the quality/reason of a falling stock price

Unseen rule 3 :: never react in an impulsive manner to a rising/falling stock price

Sajal Kapoor
@unseenvalue

Doesn't matter what's the market cap is - micro or large, the quality of any business is never unseen. You screen through the last 5-10 years of balance sheet and cash flows and you'd know what can and cannot compound wealth. Narrative alone is useless. Numbers have to match.

Conviction | Patience
@unseenvalue

When we put a high multiple to sales, the most important thing to worry about is - what could disrupt those cash flows. A lower multiple to sales (like a 1x or 2x) justifies Yo-Yo cyclicality and 10x sales implies relatively stable gross margins, cash flow and business economics.

It's amazing \U0001f60a 25% NP

$8b revenue
$2b Profit
$92b MCap

At 11 times revenue, it seems to be cheap compared to\U0001f609
— Avinash (@Aviral_Bharat) February 17, 2022

Sajal Kapoor
@unseenvalue

Conviction | Patience

Asian Paints is the TCS of 'Home Improvement' space

Think in terms of ::

- Sustainability of Leadership over decades
- Sustainability of Consumption Megatrend
- Sustainability of CFO and Governance
- Quality of Balance Sheet

Rather than absolute MCap

Conviction | Patience

TCS of CDMO in the making over the next 15Y \U0001f1ee\U0001f1f3

Compounding @ 25% since the IPO.

Syngene | Revisit 2030-2040 https://t.co/PHd8UEod5X
— Sajal Kapoor (@unseenvalue) December 30, 2019

Sajal Kapoor
@unseenvalue

If your salary / incentives are not dependent on the next quarter earnings, just relax!

No one has any idea where the stock is going in the short term. Your paid advisors definitely haven't got any idea. They're just making it up, so you stay with them.

Key word :: quarter

Conviction | Patience
@unseenvalue

Top 5

The Almanack of Naval Ravikant
The Psychology of Money
The Wealth of common sense
Masterclass with super investors
100 Baggers

Which are the books in your re-read list?

Mine as Follows \U0001f447

The Psychology of Money
The Wealth of common sense
100 Baggers
Once upon a wall street
Masterclass with super investors
Atomic Habits
Richer, Wiser, Happier
— Investment Books (@InvestmentBook1) October 8, 2021

Sajal Kapoor
@unseenvalue

Journey from deep-hatred (नफ़रत) to deep-love (इश्क़) creates massive valuations re-rating from below 1x sales and 1x book value to anything from 5x to 20x sales and a multiple of book value.

Sajal Kapoor
@unseenvalue

Context ::

https://t.co/jKwBEs81CB

Listen from around 2:21:00

#CDMO

Authors Conviction | Patience