Not all chemicals companies are expensive today. I’d screen those where current EV/Sales is in 3-5x range and more importantly where the capex is set to unfold that should improve ROE, ROCE and EV/Sales. It’s more about the individual business cycle leading to earnings growth …

Thread on Drug Development process 🧵

Hit like & Retweet for more learnings ! 💊🧪🩺💉
@unseenvalue

Topics Covered :
1.Introduction to CRO,CDMO,CMO & CRAMS
2.Discovery
3.Clinical Trials
4.Commercialization and Surveillance
5.Success Rates
6.CRO
7.CMO
8.CDMO
9.CRAMS

1. Introduction :
What are CROs, CDMOs, CMOs and CRAMS? How are they different from each other and what value do they add to the Pharma Value Chain? To understand these concepts, we took a look at the drug discovery process.

The APIs manufactured by our Indian players lie at the end of this value chain. There is a whole process that comes before it that takes a lot more time and costs a lot of money.

On average, it takes about 10 to 15 years for a drug to make it to market. It costs hundreds of millions, if not billions of dollars to bring one drug to market.

A drug goes through 3 big phases on it’s way to make it to market - the discovery phase, clinical testing phase and the commercialization phase. Once we understand these phases, it makes it easy to understand the role of CROs and CDMOs

Private Equity is "smart money". They enter only when there is a potential to unlock value.

CVC Capital (#HCG)
Carlyle Group (#SeQuent)
#Biocon Biologics (True North)
KKR (in talks to buy a controlling stake in #JBChemicals & Pharmaceuticals)

| Smart money is after my holdings!

Healthcare is a big (correction : very big) opportunity with a multi-decadal growth runway looking at the demographics and decades of underinvestment in India.

Keep averaging-up as the business performs.

Not easy.

Capacity to suffer consolidation/underperformance is paramount.

If you were born in June and you're competent and trustworthy and hold CEO and CFO designations in a good Business and a good Industry Structure - you can stay ahead of the curve and create wealth.

Keywords :: June And Competent Trustworthy CEO CFO Business Industry Structure

Most stocks are fit for short term trading. Not every business will compound wealth over the long term. Some commonly used proxies for long term compounding 'potential' (in alphabetic order) ::

Cash flow per share
Earnings per share
Scientists per share
Tweets per share

FCF = Free Cash Flow (Operating Cash after adjusting for working capital - total Capex)

MCap is based on last Friday's closing.

Q :: What stocks?
A :: “Bhaiya Ji Smile ... Kamaal karte ho Pandey jee ...” 😅

Disc: invested in the 3 businesses at single digit MCap/10Y FCF 😉

In hindsight this is how a gruesome business would look like ::

Pricing power

Sticky and mandatory consumption

30-35% ROCE once optimal capacity utilisation is reached and asset has depreciated

170x stock returns excluding dividends over 25 years

D: I’ve been averaging up

API + CDMO + Fermentation = Future

Competence is something that sets investors apart!

Join @vivbajaj and Sajal Kapoor and learn the importance and LEARN HOW: https://t.co/NguCUN2WWl

#investing #investments #stockmarketindia #stockmarketeducation #nifty

Of all the CDMO plays, I like Bio-Tech CDMOs 🧬 the best.

1️⃣ High barriers to entry
2️⃣ Long gestation periods
3️⃣ Demand that never seems to end
4️⃣ Hockey Stick Growth as molecules move from Phase 1 to Phase 3
5️⃣ Sticky Business and

Another gem from @AdityaKhemka5 sir

Opportunity in Health care Sector Cont.. Interview with Aditya Khemka FM... https://t.co/vOHvrYCUQ4 via @YouTube

Domestic pharma's Acute was disrupted in FY21 due to Covid and most businesses are sitting on a low FY21 base. They can grow handsomely not only this fiscal, but also medium to long term. If a debt-free businesses can do 20-25% ROCE despite Covid, what can be the FY23e EV/Sales?

@unseenvalue @buzz_chronicles save as

save as uvlearnings

If cash flow is not growing / compounding - why do you expect the share price to make newer ATHs ?

Ultimately, the stock price is a function of underlying business and the quality of cash flows

"Quality vs Quantity" of cash matters. Small and Mid Pharma have outperformed Large!

Proof of pudding is in eating

https://t.co/WhcL2pcTaJ

#Biocon @RemindMe_OfThis on 1 May 2022

Biosciences is the space to track and follow globally. Sector offers extra large opportunity landscape. Shared the full thesis in that April webinar. Convinced that 🧬 will throw many big compounders in next few years.

#Fermentation #Biotechnology