Conviction | Patience's Threads

H was always unseen in S2NL :)

Those who exited at 1500 needed money. They can always come back near 969. Those who exited at 230 also needed money. They can come back near 95.

Those who sold L @ 660 can always come back at 360. Those who sold S last week can be back @ 301

Sir, Log yahan.. 13 days patience nhi rakh sakte aur aap 2013 ki baat kar rahe ho. Even Aap Ready made portfolio banakar bhi de do to bhi wo 1 month me hi EXIT kar denge \U0001f602

Neuland 2700 se 1500 & Sequent 330 to 230 kya huwa.. 99% retailers/investors twitter par charcha n EXIT\U0001f602
— BhavinKhengarSuratGujarat (@IntradayWithBRK) September 19, 2021

Sajal Kapoor
@unseenvalue

@VineetGala @cvocain 100% agree with your bearish view on those #APIs. I won't tell the names, so hopefully ppl will get motivated to watch the whole webinar (and learn something in the process). Good stuff @VineetGala 👌

Sajal Kapoor
@unseenvalue

From failing to qualify for a major world event to winning a major world event. Unseen transformation in just 3Y 🇮🇹 ⚽️

From an unseen retail owned micro/small cap to institutional darling large cap. Magical transformation unfolding in just 3Y from late 2019 to late 2022 🇮🇳 ⭕️

Sajal Kapoor
@unseenvalue

Only one Indian company is making the country pound in the US when it comes to Biologics #Biocon @Bioconlimited 👏👏

Company floated and nurtured by a women despite all the gender biases. How can the gents be beaten by a lady?

Conviction | Patience
@unseenvalue

"The global natural cosmetics market is expected to be worth $48.04 billion by 2025..... #Biotechnology could be the game-changer for natural beauty lovers – and, more crucially, Planet Earth."

https://t.co/PEvcSXrrW1

#Fermentation | Industry 5.0 Vision 2 🧬

Sajal Kapoor
@unseenvalue

@harindersnanda @ishmohit1 @soicfinance @punitbansal14 @nison_steve Both should do well. Prefer Zoetis for leadership, best in class margins and management's execution. Elanco should improve with Bayer Animal boosting companion proportion in its overall mix.

#SeQuent will under-perform next 1-2 years due to #ESOP (unless a surprise M&A happens)

Sajal Kapoor
@unseenvalue

All these are Pharma sector companies. Company F consistently reports -ve cash flows. It's stock price never compounded. All other examples reported multi-years of +ve cash flow generation. These stocks have been multi-baggers over the years.

Focus on Cash Flows vs News Flows.

Sajal Kapoor
@unseenvalue

Still waiting for those ~5 to go bankrupt. Future is unpredictable. We only need a few 100x over 15Y.

Tail-events generate the biggest panic and upside. If you survive the panic w/o jumping off the train, you deserve the 100x in few stocks.

Temperament + Business Analysis = ⤴️

@unseenvalue Hats off Sir. I compared an equal weighted portfolio of your stocks above to the 2 Coffee Can stocks Abbott & Divis and your portfolio has delivered significant upside since then
Key has to be conviction and equal weighting pic.twitter.com/6dJ1LDMSYr
— ML4TradingDoctor (@DrKRIndia) May 16, 2021

Sajal Kapoor
@unseenvalue

If I have the luxury of not looking at my portfolio for five years and build it today, I will go and buy CDMOs assisting innovators on ::

Animal Healthcare
Biotechnology (including fermentation)
Peptides
Oligonucleotides
High Potency Drugs in Oncology

Keywords :: five years

Sajal Kapoor
@unseenvalue

Wasn’t easy to book losses in this #Antibiotics business after waiting for 4 long years. Was even more difficult re-entering the same business after few months when @punitbansal14 broke the news of a major yield improvement and slew of R&D filings across the Antibiotics spectrum!

Conviction | Patience
@unseenvalue

1. Listen to various competitors
2. Put your neck on the line (invest your hard earned capital - experience comes by paying tuition fee)
3. Read non-investing books as well (Psychology, history, biographies or whatever non-fiction you like)
4. Read this :
https://t.co/6z3HvtKakL

How to augment your Sector knowledge? Follow these 5 points \U0001f447

1. The Five Rules For Successful Stock Investing by Pat Dorsey
2. Con Calls - as many as you can in that sector
3. Annual Reports - as many as you can in that sector
4. Interact with trade/channel partners
5. AGMs pic.twitter.com/2ZOx3nkC4i
— Conviction | Patience (@unseenvalue) May 18, 2019

Sajal Kapoor
@unseenvalue

Most Indian businesses are locally competitive. You take them outside India, and they struggle. Very few businesses (IT, Pharma/API, Chemicals/CDMO) are fit to compete and beat global competition. These rare gems tend to survive over long time periods and thrive over all cycles.

Sajal Kapoor
@unseenvalue

Indian Investing Conclave CDMO/API was free (short registration for access needed)

https://t.co/9XwKv9L3Bp

Sajal Kapoor
@unseenvalue

Not easy to track all 4K generic chemical molecules. My template is rather simple so even a layman can follow! Invest in innovator synthesis (#CDMOs) as ::

a) molecules are on-patent. No pricing pressure
b) typically 1 or 2 suppliers compete per molecule
c) runway is extra long

Sajal Kapoor
@unseenvalue

S1 : Majority NBE/NCE R&D projects fail. CDMO partner to that innovator "makes money in all failed" cases.

S2 : CDMO "may make larger money" in those lucky, successful (thin minority) cases, if the same #CDMO is retained as the manufacturing partner.

Extract from 2018 tweet 👇

Sajal Kapoor
@unseenvalue

Any animal healthcare stock you like
Any Bio and non-Bio CDMO you like
Any hospital you like …
Any domestic Pharma you …
Any complex API player you .. (in addition to pure CDMO)
Any industrial biotech you ..
Any diagnostics you …
Any human and agri biotech you 👌

#uv_Tijori

Sajal Kapoor
@unseenvalue

There are many such from @oraunak @soicfinance @jeevanpatwa and https://t.co/208eQbYKEF #22 by @tusharbohra

My advice would be - invest time in researching how and why synthetic biology and #biotechnology be disrupting many petro derived chemicals, textiles and other materials.

Sajal Kapoor
@unseenvalue

@connectgurmeet Impact of Bioeconomy / Biotechnology be very visible by 2030. This runway is ridiculously long, so even those who buy after 10 years, will create serious wealth if they could hold for a long enough period.

Allocation + Patience = 💰💰💰💰

Sajal Kapoor
@unseenvalue

Not all chemicals companies are expensive today. I’d screen those where current EV/Sales is in 3-5x range and more importantly where the capex is set to unfold that should improve ROE, ROCE and EV/Sales. It’s more about the individual business cycle leading to earnings growth …

Conviction | Patience
@unseenvalue

You offer me 80% cost arbitrage (discount relative to Japan/EU/US) along with low confidence / assurance on Critical Success Factors and I won't give you a single NCE/NBE to discover, develop or manufacture. Capex/opex arbitrage is too low in the disruptive-science-pecking-order! https://t.co/O2l8dK4BUv

@unseenvalue Given high capex/opex cost structures of US/Japan/EU, how will they be able to compete with Indian API companies? https://t.co/OYhC2PUZpL
— Hiren (@hiren_investing) August 11, 2021

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