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There is continued growing unease. The main picture remains one of depressed/tentative trade (c50% down y-o-y) and some high profile logistics business have taken the rational step to stop and regroup.
The big worry here is that ‘not-trading’becomes a habit. We can’t/won’t carry on at half the volumes of before, but as volumes claw back we may only reach something like 80% of previous volumes and that is a disaster for a food industry already battered by a recession.
Lots of focus has been on the idea of EU businesses stopping serving the UK. Worries about how we feed ourselves has trumped worry about our exporters at every stage. Even though it is the collapse of our export businesses that is (and has always been) the greater threat.
To reassure the mainland British shopper that feels like less of a risk. UK is a large market of wealthy consumers, and UK gov has shown it will do anything (however unfair) to ensure stuff gets in - even letting supermarkets have access to the fast track lane to Dover.
NEW. \U0001f6a8\U0001f6a8\U0001f69b\U0001f1ec\U0001f1e7\U0001f644\U0001f69b\U0001f69a\U0001f6a8\U0001f6a8 clear signs govt is preparing for coming #brexit turbulence - consulting on new fast-track scheme for food lorries returning to Europe /1
— Peter Foster (@pmdfoster) January 13, 2021
https://t.co/QqDKxBUu3f
I am not as close to this but it feels like shortage on the shelves is more of a genuine immediate threat for the island of Ireland. The types of innovative solutions we have discussed this week can help but will they come in quick enough?

Recent experience with historical sex offence cases show how far the most motivated serious offenders are prepared to go- including getting specific lifetime jobs and volunteering positions. These are a relatively small number of men. Indecent exposure however 2/
Is a crime that roughly 3 MILLION women have experienced since age 16. Well over 100 THOUSAND offences were committed in the last year (official gov stats https://t.co/FxTUosXaFj )
3/
What percentage of these offenders would pretend to be trans in order to offend? Well, you might argue that a very large proportion won't, but what is the barrier proposed under self-ID? Filling in a form. There's no commitment to a process required 4/
And (this is key) there are women's spaces where it is normal to be unclothed. So these men can indulge their offending without any realistic possibility of conviction, AND 5/
I'm following @freep's live coverage of the Michigan Capitol here.
Where I am seeing small groups-- average of 3-5 people-- it's Boogaloo Boys. In Columbus, Ohio, and Salem, Oregon, for example.
.@jordangreentcb reports a dozen rightwing types skulking around in Raleigh, North Carolina, which is interesting.
I\u2019m in downtown Raleigh w/ @acrider. We spotted roughly a dozen ppl in the parking lot of the State Library of NC across street from Governor\u2019s Mansion. 1 wearing a Blackwater jacket, others in camo. They got in a vehicle & left when we spotted them. Photos by @acrider #J17 pic.twitter.com/fBKrnZ9IjW
— Jordan Green (@jordangreentcb) January 17, 2021
.@jason_a_w is live-tweeting five Boogaloo Boys in Salem, Oregon. As he notes, they’re outnumbered 3:1 by the journalists on scene.
In Salem, OR today for a Capitol protest. Only attendees thus far are five boogaoloo bois pic.twitter.com/t2qqaZ4u2d
— Jason Wilson (@jason_a_w) January 17, 2021
In New Jersey, @DLamontJenkins reports “one old guy, and he isn’t anywhere near the Statehouse, and he’s pissed.”
— Daryle Lamont Jenkins (@DLamontJenkins) January 17, 2021

https://t.co/cv4UqsaVAK
That being said I hold some Doge @blockio in an "A-" address myself after 0. 1. "9-" versions :). Don't believe Bitcoin Core the Coin (Utility) is the only visible value on Core chain. Color me crazy. I believe in script. And FOSS that is used to export📜

And that's just a guy @MeniRosenfeld who put his identity and ideas out in the public to build a Web of Trust back when the web was much less of a safe place. His identity at stake and the implementation of a branch in source code by another unsung hero @killerstorm reveals value
Some of those who set up our bright future quietly implemented it in a branch on the main source code before it was officially the Bitcoin Core main repository, before a "Bitcoin Core" entity existed
Just because Bitcoin Core nodes dominate and do not read "smart" colored satoshis or display them, doesn't mean they do not exist on chain. The example of recreating P2WSH-over-P2SH address from BTC https://t.co/ZWSP2MO5bY wallets in Bitcoin Core Gold I shared proves -rescan's $
My letter to Democratic Leader Schumer.
— Lindsey Graham (@LindseyGrahamSC) January 17, 2021
The Senate should vote to dismiss the article of impeachment once it is received in the Senate. We will be delaying indefinitely, if not forever, the healing of this great Nation if we do otherwise. pic.twitter.com/fjVcf7iVPf
1) "But now, in your first act as Majority Leader, rather than begin the national healing that the country so desperately yearns for, you seek vengeance and political retaliation instead."
Trump incited an attack on the Capitol, on Congress, and on a free & fair election.
Trump has yet to concede, to apologize, or to admit he was lying about the outcome of the election. He has done nothing that demonstrates he does not continue to present a danger to our nation.
Trump's supporters continue to conspire to overthrow the government--with Trump's implicit, and quite possibly explicit--support. At this very moment, over 20,000 troops are stationed in our nation's capital to ensure the inauguration of President-Elect Biden can be completed.
It is not "vengeance" or "political retaliation" to insist a man that has fomented and continues to inspire a violent insurrection against the government is unfit ever to hold office again.
This is, in fact, a bare minimum protection for our country against future harm by Trump.
I basically never use FB, but I'm on my (very old) laptop today.
Let's get some screen shots.
https://t.co/FHWkaHrqUj @youseepeeYYC @Dave_Khan @RachelNotley - They already started
— Bart (@BartMLL) January 17, 2021
"Today I decided to head up the Oldman to see what the coal companies have been getting up to. I forgot, however, that the forestry trunk road is closed at Dutch Creek each winter, ostensibly for wildlife protection. So I parked at the locked gate and started hiking."
#ableg

"Newly gouged test pit for coal wayyyy up on the mountain ridge. Note coal dust deposited downwind on the snow."
#ableg #DefendABParks
#FiretheUCP

"Same ridge, for scale. That whole mountain is meant to disappear, if Atrum gets the okay to mine this lease. Which they will if the UCP stay in charge of things. The new exploration pit is on the right. The rest of their work is out of sight from this angle."
#ableg #FiretheUCP

"The moose shared my opinion, evidently."
#ableg #DefendABParks
#WaterNotCoal #NoToCoalAB

Regardless of how you feel about @The_JOP’s new policy, a lot of political scientists will be writing PAPs for the first time.
I wanted to share my experiences/thoughts having written many PAPs.
Thread follows..🧵
1. What counts as a PAP? In my view, all that makes a PAP a PAP is that it pre-specifies procedures for data analysis, ideally as precisely as possible.
Note what this does *not* include: lit review, theory, etc.
Some people like to write PAPs that include all this, but...
..I do not think this is necessary. In my view, as long as your PAP pre-specifies procedures for data analysis, it’s a PAP, regardless of what else you may want to add to it. Add more if you want, but you don’t need to imo.
That means PAPs can be super short/fast to write.
2. How do you do this practically?
Idea 1: For people getting started, I highly recommend https://t.co/EbxOOIHr8Z. Screenshot attached. You’ll answer 6 questions about your analysis, each answer requires ~a few sentences. Should take you around 15 minutes. And that’s it!

The tool will create a) an anonymized PDF with your answers you can upload with a paper submission and b) a blinded link (eg https://t.co/hTHH0rb4wg) you can include that verifies you pre-registered. And you’re done!
There’s many more options. Here’s two more things I’ve done: