It was a month ago when I found this broken eagle while cleaning the Capitol after the insurrection. I kept it as a tender reminder of the enormous work ahead to heal. This is one of several symbols I want to share with you as we think what comes next for our nation (THREAD)

SYMBOL OF THREAT: This shattered window on the center doors of the Capitol is the last remaining major damage I saw left as I walked around the Capitol last night. It remains as a symbol of the hate that penetrated our democracy and flooded inside.

SYMBOL OF LOSS: This week, we paid our respects to Officer Sicknick. I learned that over 140 police were injured. Suffered from cracked ribs, smashed spinal discs, stabbed with metal fence stake, one officer lost an eye.

SYMBOL OF UNCERTAINTY: I now have to pass through two layers of razor wire fencing to get to work at the Capitol. I walked the perimeter this week with the National Guard and they said they have no idea how long this protection will be necessary.

SYMBOL OF GRATITUDE: The reminders of trauma have been met with incredible kindness and compassion. The attacks, meant to break our democratic process, have instilled a newly strengthened resolve to protect it. 100s of signs thanking Capitol Police line tunnel under the Capitol.

The DUP is literally entirely at fault for the Irish Sea Border.

Its MPs held the balance of power when the crucial decisions were made, and cast the defining votes which made sure there would be one.

Let us just remember...

1/6

Shortly after the Referendum a DUP MP went on the radio to say there were no checks and the Norway-Sweden border.

He refused to apologise and accept this error even when he was shown pictures of the checks...

2/6

Another DUP MP then *visited* the Norway-Sweden border and argued the UK-Ireland border could be just like it.

Again, she was told clearly that it would only be like it if the UK were as close to the EU as Norway is.

*She then cast votes to make sure it wouldn't be.*

3/6

DUP MPs were then warned *during a parliamentary debate* that too great a distance from the EU could lead to food shortages.

One literally replied: "We'll just go to the chippy".

4/6

The DUP was also constantly warned that any regulatory border for goods would apply in the Irish Sea, because it is easier to apply these things where vehicles are already naturally stopped. Over and over and over again it was told this.

5/6

11 months of Lockdown got me feeling like...

But once lockdown ends...

Mystery third meat alert!

Inflation Is Coming!

Some say: Inflation didn’t rise after 2008-2015 Fed QE, so it won’t rise this time. Here are the problems with that argument.

1) From 2008-2015 regulators hammered the banks, so while the Fed’s balance sheet expanded, M2 did not accelerate.

2) In 2020, we used the banks to push out money, the opposite of the first round of QE. PPP loans were financed through banks and unemployment checks were direct-deposited.
3) The M2 measure of money is up more than 25% in the past 12 months.

4) That alone, 25%+ M2 growth, is enough, but we are compounding the problems.
5) Regulating fossil fuel production drives energy prices up.
6) Ag, industrial & transportation are energy intensive, and many claim they are bad for the environment. Result: higher prices.

7) Federal government borrowing and deficit spending encourages more Fed money printing, and artificially lifts demand.
8) Higher tax rates, rising minimum wage, and big government crowd out the private sector; reducing supply.
9) Demand up; Supply down! Inflation is coming.

On Wed., Feb. 10 at 10am ET, #NASAScience, @ULALaunch, & @theNASEM experts will discuss our @NASAPersevere rover in a virtual #CountdownToMars conversation hosted by @AIAA. How to participate & watch live: https://t.co/8W001iILNi

Learning myths #2: Learning formats 👇

Many believe that there are different types of learners

I.e. some people learn more effectively from visual material, some from auditory material and others from kinaesthetic practice

Therefore, instruction should be tailored to each learner’s preferred style (1/11)

Paul Howard-Jones (2014) suggested that this assumption is based on the fact that different regions of the cortex have different roles in visual, auditory, and sensory processing, so students should learn differently “according to which part of their brain works better” (2/11)

Yet, despite the popularity of the theory, there is ample evidence to contradict its validity (3/11)

Tesia Marshik (2015) gave an example of a study to test this.

Participants are given a list of words to memorise. They are either presented with the written list of words, with images of the words, or they listen to the words being read aloud (4/11)

"Cancel culture" but pronounced like a pasta: "can-chel-le cul-choor-ay"

Imagine, if you will, a Rigoletto in which the antagonist is cleverly renamed "Canucile Culture"

😶About yesterday...
It's not always bright and shiny and for sure this match will stay with me. Sometimes you know how and what to do but when you step on court, there is stress and struggle.
I'll recover and do better.

😶Kilka zdań o wczorajszym meczu...
Nie zawsze jest kolorowo, a ten mecz na pewno zostanie ze mną jako ważna lekcja. Czasami doskonale wiesz, co i jak zrobić, ale gdy wchodzisz na kort pojawia się stres i napięcie.
Krok za krokiem, będę pracować.

62nd anniversary of The Day The Music Died.

Some shots from that final show at the Surf Ballroom. That's Waylon Jennings playing bass for both Buddy Holly and Richie Valens. He didn't ride on the plane because he lost a coin flip.

correction - it was Buddy Holly's guitarist Tommy Allsup who lost the plane ride coin flip to Richie Valens; Waylon Jennings reluctantly gave up his seat on the plane to JR "The Big Bopper" Richardson because Richardson had the flu.

In their last conversation, Buddy Holly kidded Jennings for 'chickening out' of the plane ride, and joked "I hope your damn bus freezes up again."

Jennings, joking back, told Holly "I hope your ol' plane crashes." That joke haunted Jennings for decades.

The Surf Ballroom in Clear Lake survives, though, and is still a gem; and still hosts an annual February commemorative Winter Dance Party.

It takes guts to truly face hard truths. But facing them is the only way to protect oneself going forward. This is why I keep reminding people that the Republican Party is beyond repair. 1/

The Republican Party’s internal structures, at the state and federal level, are dominated by people actively opposed to democratic pluralism, rule of law, and U.S. constitutionalism. 2/

Once a political party refuses to drop its support for a leader, in this case Donald Trump, who constantly and consistently betrayed the country throughout his time in office that party cannot be salvaged as a player in U.S. constitutional democracy. 3/

Everybody else, from individual rank and file Democrats to President Joe Biden, must radically overhaul how they deal with people who do not disaffiliate from the Republican Party. 4/

Anybody who remains a Republican at this point must be presumed to be an enemy of U.S. constitutionalism, rather than as somebody with right wing policy views. 5/

One of the biggest knock-on effects of Liverpool's centre-back issues has been on the full-backs.

Klopp said explicitly in pre-season he had to rotate them, but now not wanting to further unsettle defence, he hasn't.

And now they both look absolutely knackered.

Another knock-on effect is, for example, in the decision to play 35 y/o Milner four times in 10 days (absolutely ridiculous decision typically, but needed because of fragility of the defence behind the midfield).

And, of course, losing Fabinho and Henderson for so long from midfield options not only removes what they provide in midfield, but knock-on effect is Wijnaldum (even Thiago latterly) being overplayed also.

It's a huge domino effect.

Then there's the lack of goal threat we have from attacking set pieces, which removes what was a quite impressive weapon for us previously.

It all makes it easier for opposition and harder for us.

Klopp so often mentions 'rhythm' and that's been almost impossible to have this season for so many reasons, going into every game with 4,5,more first-XI players missing. You then *have* to play the remaining 4,5 players and they become depleted.

this is not my dog. she’s been following me for about a mile. I ran past her owner and she took off following me. she’s a lovely pup but if you have a dog off-leash (esp on a trail where dogs are not allowed) make sure she’s not gonna follow the first person who runs by

what do I do now? should I cancel my run and go find owners? I don’t mind but it’s frustrating that folks aren’t more responsible

UPDATE: this kind woman offered to attempt to get the puppy down and back to her owners. So long beautiful blue eyed dog. I enjoyed our forbidden time together

Thoughts on growth

I find the investors typically heavily underestimate multiple contractions + expansions in their theses. If your thesis is that the narrative will actually change as new better/worse results come in, multiples will move to incorporate higher growth or whatever

I'm sure it's a conservatism thing, but I'm also sure that deserved multiple expansion is one of the most important things to look for. See - hello fresh, sea Ltd. Both had radical reevaluations of their businesses.

I'm also of the opinion that the reason these companies go up so quickly is because now, the market is much better at incorporating information and narratives are shifting so quickly. Hello fresh went from a dogshit meal box Co. To a grocery delivery/logistics leader

On hello fresh - from less than 1x sales to 3x sales as they proved margin and profitability and their thesis was proved in 2 years - from 10 euro to 70 euro.

Being the first, or catching it quickly enough is the key to world beating returns now. In addition, I think this is why momentum has worked so well - the change in perception of business quality has been so quick, but not quick enough for a lot of cos, especially wrt risk free

Beautiful Jaclyn Smith, Kelly Garrett in Charlie's Angels 1976-1981, the longest serving Angel.