Pay attention. not only the loss making tech continues to get decimated but is joined by the generals of Market.

1/ @mjmauboussin's book Expectations Investing is a masterclass in valuation & strategy

His framework uses price-implied expectations to assess companies, an elegant way to invert valuation

https://t.co/kESplMN3nW

To practice these concepts, I wrote a case study on Chipotle⤵️

2/ Chipotle is the leading fast casual restaurant chain across the US, with almost 3,000 owned & operated locations

They benefit from strong unit economics and a trusted brand

We'll discuss consensus estimates, competitive landscape, and expected

3/ We must first identify the price-implied expectations based on key value drivers

After finding the consensus estimates, investors can seek opportunities in the expectations - looking for a divergence from the market's assumptions

Let's start with Chipotle's sales growth

4/ Chipotle has grown revenues from $3.9B to $7.55B over the past 5 years, at a 5 year CAGR of 14.1%

Analysts estimate a 13.7% consensus growth rate based on 5-7% same store sales growth, 8% additional store openings per year, and steady digital sales contribution

5/ Next is operating profit margin, which measures profitability from core operations

Chipotle has slowly been growing its margin, now at 10.67%

Analysts expect high margins of 15.75%, with incremental profits from digital orders and unit-level margin growth contributing

On the 19th Sept. 2014 $BABA opened at 92.70$ at the NYSE. Today it has 35.8x the revenue and 35.6x the net income.

The stock was lower yesterday at 90.82$

Sometimes the stock market is widely irrational.

Ofc I don't know for sure but this can be the home run bet for Charlie.

Funds That Don't Deserve Your Money.

Check your portfolio and do the cleanup!!

Read-Along 👇 1/n

Aditya Birla SL Frontline Equity

The fund that doesn't deserve your money.

2/n

HDFC Top 100

The fund that doesn't deserve your money.

3/n

ICICI Prudential Bluechip

The fund that doesn't deserve your money.

4/n

Nippon India Large-Cap

The fund that doesn't deserve your money.

5/n

@nid_rockz So called popular handle

The watchlist I've created over years of reading Businesses and using screeners+Interacting with other investors:- (Given markets are correcting, one can study some of

Disc:- Not a recommendation by any means. Study independently. And make your own decisions.

Has anyone seen "you are getting mutual fund units at discount" and "India growth story" tweets?

This is a bit worrying.

I devoured 50 years of Warren Buffett shareholder letters.

The result?

12 timeless principles from the greatest investor in the world.

Here are the golden nuggets🧵

The Orangutan Effect

"If you sit down with an orangutan and carefully explain to it one of your cherished ideas, you may leave behind a puzzled primate, but will exit thinking more clearly yourself."

Teaching others actually teaches yourself.

2022

The Faulty Premise Framework

“A horse that can count to ten is a remarkable horse - not a remarkable mathematician.”

Beware your comparison set.

Are you judging crappy relative performance or absolute results?

1985

Pick the Right Business Boat

The business boat you get into is more important than how effectively you row.

“When a brilliant management team tackles a business with a reputation for poor fundamental economics, the reputation of the business usually stays intact.”

1985

A Rising Tide Doesn't Lift All Bonuses

"Good performance should be rewarded whether Berkshire stock rises or falls.
Average performance should earn no special rewards even if our stock soars."

Judge for individual performance or risk free riding on group success.

1986

@Namajapa In my experience value stocks are the ones with undervalued optionality - the possibility things get unexpectedly better. Expensive story stocks by contrast anticipate and price in all manner of good future outcomes long before they are actually delivered/deliverable.

One thing I'm always most excited about as an investor:

Watching CEO interviews.

Over the years, I’ve watched over 100s of them.

Here’s 25 traits I’ve seen in the very best leaders.

You can swipe these into your own framework to evaluate management teams:

1. They don’t rely on external motivation

Not status or money.

Instead, they seem to be driven an inner fire.

Sometimes it’s to make the world a better place.

Other times, it’s to prove themselves right.

And that's why they can keep going even after they're already rich AF.

2. They're not human

They don't see the world like 99% of us

Whether it’s creating a culture that’s a sports team vs a family...

Or thinking of everything from first principles…

They have a different modus operandi.

This helps them see solutions that 99% of us muggles miss.

3. They enjoy founder-company fit

The great leaders are great because:

They’re in a company that plays to their unique personality.

The stars have to align for a great leader to be made.

The product + business model + personality of the leader must match.

4. They give lots of freedom and autonomy

They know how to unleash the potential in their team

They know how to paint an exciting vision…

And then give their team the space to roam free.

They understand that people flourish when you give them room to explore and experiment.

At 98, Munger is as sharp as ever.

His recent 2-hour sharing at $DJCO was 🔥

Talked about $BABA, $COST, $ATVI, crypto, interest rates, envy, antitrust, the great resignation, growth vs value investing and MORE.

Here are my notes:

1. Let's get the white elephant out of the room and talk:

$BABA

Why invest in China? And why Alibaba?

To find out more about $BABA without going through 10 years of annual report, check out my deep-dive here.

More than 20,000 people have viewed it in 7

2. It's no secret that Munger has a contempt for crypto

While there are legitimate use cases (IMO), Munger hates the negative spillover it brings.

3. On whether there'll be a major interest rate increase

Japan managed to maintain low interest rates and reduce their debt without compromising their living standards.

But we're not sure if the U.S. can pull off the same trick.

Here's why:

@TraderIndian

The effect of instant information is immediate reaction, even when no reaction is warranted.

Insolvency resolutions suck for creditors, but this one takes the cake.

Listed company gave loan to related party, defaulted along with other dues. Related party creditor acquired the listed entity via insolvency.

Only losers are operational creditors w/ 88% haircut.

Company name is Covidh Technologies Ltd - really old bankrupt company. Not a significant event, just an observation.

Correction: Listed company *took* a loan from related party (in first tweet)

Real Estate Inventory is consistently reducing across the top 7 cities in India.

source: Jefferies, Propequity