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Quality hone ke liye HIGH PE hona jaroori hai
Ethanol plants need incineration boilers
— Siddhartha Bhaiya (@sidd1307) June 29, 2021
There are only 2 major manufacturers in India
One is thermax. The other is homework \U0001f61c#valueinvesting #Investment #investing #aequitas
Ghor ChemYug š
#DeepakNitrite valuation is most attractive in the space...
— jeevan patwa (@jeevanpatwa) June 30, 2021
growth will be most explosive in the space... pic.twitter.com/8VYdWwFApY
Spoke to a group of students from London School of Economics this morning. So many great questions. As usual, multiple Qs gravitate around \u201chow do you know?\u201d Or how did you know or how could you know? It\u2019s the reason I wrote this. https://t.co/aECMjIFxw0
— Ho Nam (@honam) June 27, 2021
Get a cup of coffee.
In this thread, I'll walk you through 2 probability concepts: Standard Deviation (SD) and Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD).
This will give you insight into Fat Tails -- which are super useful in investing and in many other fields.

2/
Recently, I watched 2 probability "mini-lectures" on YouTube by Nassim Taleb.
One ~10 min lecture covered SD and MAD. The other ~6 min lecture covered Fat Tails.
In these ~16 mins, @nntaleb shared so many useful nuggets that I had to write this thread to unpack them.
3/
For those curious, here are the YouTube links to the lectures:
SD and MAD (~10 min): https://t.co/0TwubymdE6
Fat Tails (~6 min):
4/
The first thing to understand is the concept of a Random Variable.
In essence, a Random Variable is a number that depends on a random event.
For example, when we roll a die, we get a Random Variable -- a number from the set {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}.
5/
Every Random Variable has a Probability Distribution.
This tells us all the possible values the Random Variable can take, and their respective probabilities.
For example, when we roll a fair die, we get a Random Variable with this Probability Distribution:

THREAD: 20+ powerful razors (to help you cut through lifeās noise):
The Steve Jobs Quality Razor
When building, take pride in carrying the quality all the way through.
Would you be proud for your work to be seen from every angle and perspective?
If not, keep working.

The ELI5 Razor
Complexity and jargon are often used to mask a lack of true understanding.
If you canāt explain it to a 5-year-old, you donāt really understand it.
If someone uses a lot of complexity and jargon to explain something to you, they probably donāt understand it.
Mungerās Rule of Opinions
āI never allow myself to have an opinion on anything that I donāt know the other sideās argument better than they do.ā - Charlie Munger
Opinions arenāt free. You have to work to earn the right to have them.
The Bezos Regret Minimization Framework
The goal is to minimize the number of regrets in life.
When faced with a difficult decision:
(1) Project yourself into the future
(2) Look back on the decision
(3) Ask "Will I regret not doing this?"
(4) Take action
The @JeffBezos Regret Minimization Framework is a simple yet powerful mental model for making important decisions and unlocking growth in your career, startup, business, relationships, or life.
— Sahil Bloom (@SahilBloom) February 24, 2021
A short thread on how it works and how it can change your life... pic.twitter.com/krtr2CarxW