The subject of true and false prophesying has been raised recently. See @derekradney especially. It’s important because as @PLeithart notes in his fine commentary on 1&2 Kings, Israel’s history is not so much political as it is prophetic.

Some quick reactions to the new lockdowns in Europe.

1. The degree of uncertainty is much higher than in the first wave. In the first wave, the (incorrect) belief was that the infection rate would quickly decrease and remain low thereafter.

1 So, today we turn to early Islamic Beirut. what do we know of the earliest times of #Beirut under early Islamic rule, starting with the #conquest. How and when did Beirut enter the emerging Muslim empire? -rm

2 Let’s start with traditional sources for the early Islamic period. Of those, only al-Balādhurī (d. ca. 892), the Abbasid scholar, is informative. Other Muslim and non-Muslim sources including al-Ṭabarī's Tārīkh are silent on the matter.-rm

3 In his small tome, Futūḥ al-Buldān, al-Balādhurī tells his readers: “After the conquest of Damascus, Yazīd came to Sidon, ʿArqa, Byblos, and Beirut which lie on the sea coast with his brother Muʿāwiya leading the van of the army.”-rm

4 Hence, the men who conquered Beirut were Yazīd b. Abī Sufyān (d. 639) and his half-brother and future caliph Mu‘āwiya (r. 661-680). The date of the conquest of the coast falls between 636 and 639 at the latest, the date of the death of Yazīd in the plague of Emmaus. -rm

5 Yazīd and the Muslim army likely took the coastal road to Beirut, a path taken by numerous armies before. They would have either swung from Damascus to Baalbek through the Hims gap to ‘Arqa, then Byblos, crossed the Dog River, and arrived at the eastern side of Beirut.

Portugal is famous for its mild climate and sunny beaches, but each year hundreds of people freeze to death and millions struggle to survive frigid winter weather.

Here's a quick thread based on my @POLITICOEurope story on Portuguese energy poverty

When I lived in Lisbon my friends and I joked that although the Portuguese were famous for melancholia, uncharacteristic (and unrealistic) optimism defined their approach to thermal insulation: homes seemed to be built as if the weather was expected to be perfect year-round.

While the weather is, indeed, really great for most of the year, it can also be really awful sometimes. In the Summer temperatures can shoot up to truly unbearable levels for weeks on end, and in the Winter the icy humidity can easily make you feel like you're freezing 24/7.

This reality is a huge problem precisely because so many Portuguese people live in homes that don't have the capacity to shelter them from the heat when temperatures rise and the cold when they drop. And that means that every year that means people die because of the weather.

This issue can be traced back to the rural exodus that took place during the second half of the XX century, when millions fled the interior to seek better futures either outside the country — immigrating to France, Germany and Luxembourg — or in cities like Lisbon and Porto.

MIGRATING TO AUSTRALIA
International borders are currently closed and migration for offshore candidates next to zero but I will share this info so you can prepare, if interested. There are still things you can do in preparation

Migrating to Australia is a process and a half. It is costly and the process is long. It can take a year or so for the whole process to come full cycle. What I can not emphasise enough is that IT IS WORTH IT. There are a few visas available for trades people.

Please note that Australia does not classify trades people. You are either one or not. Whether you are class 2 or class 1, apprenticeship trained or not, if you have the required experience and pass their skills assessment you get the same certificate.

The most common visa is the State nomination visas, followed by the employer nominated visas. I will expand on these below. Between 2012 and 2017 you could easily get PR straight up, but they have since changed the rules to balance and spread people across other states.

PR allows you to work anywhere in Australia. Most people chose Western Australia as that is where most of the mining happens, leaving other states with skills shortage. Before we go into details about visas, I will share what you need to be eligible.