13 years ago, Imad Mughnieh was unlawfully assassinated in #Damascus. Both the CIA and the Mossad claimed credit. Haj Imad managed to survive for 25 years away from his killers (incl some Arab States) and transformed #Hezbollah to another level of deterrence against #Israel.+

THREAD.

In analysing the Afghan political spectrum something becomes obvious: Kabul's base is far more diverse than the Taliban's. For simplicity's sake, I'll count stronger opposition toward the Taliban than Kabul as 'pro Kabul'.

Let's assess these generally. Exceptions apply.

A diverse base isn't necessarily, however, a good thing. Appealing to everyone ensures you appeal to no one, or that your support base is so fractured that it actually becomes a liability. Think of Clinton losing the Democrat majority in Congress being a blessing in disguise.

Some pro-Kabul groupings:

1) ethnonationalists of all ethnicities. Whilst the non-Pashtuns amongst them aren't pro-Ghani, they're pro-Kabul as an institution; they see it as far more representative and amenable to their interests than the Taliban.

Some Pashtun nationalists do support the Taliban (majority Pashtun) but these are a minority. The biggest blemishes on the Taliban's Pashtun credentials:

a) The Taliban/Pakistan relationship
b) their overt Islam, which many Pashtun nationalists are hostile toward.

2) The enlightened 'roshan-fikr' demographic

Liberals/seculars. Not much intro needed: progress, freedom, spectacular gains of the last 19 years, women's rights et cetera. You generally notice quite an anti-Islam, wholesale adoption of War on Terror rhetoric in their rationale.

Slavery by philanthropy. China offers help to Africa to gain voting power and maintain its hegemony.
@MichaelPSenger @stacey_rudin @randyhillier @katewand

"African allies -- which have crucial voting rights at major international bodies -- have arguably become an even more vital bloc for China to keep on side with its so-called vaccine diplomacy."

Why Does Wang visit African countries every year?

"According to the China Africa Research Initiative, Chinese loans to Africa dropped from $29.4 billion in 2016 to $8.9 billion in 2018."
"[Wang] postponed the repayment of interest-free loans from China that matured at the end of 2020"

When loans are postponed, this comes at some price; usually, its' sell your soul to the devil.

Today Vice President @ProfOsinbajo presided over a meeting of the National Economic Council (NEC), to critically review the security situation in the country. Council recommitted to the following principles:

#NECBrief
#AsoVillaToday
#Thread

The Council recommitted to the following principles:

1. The protection of all residents of all States, including non-indigenous communities and religious and ethnic minorities within State jurisdictions;

2. The arrest and prosecution of all perpetrators of crime;

3. In collaboration with federal authorities, the reconstruction of destroyed homes and payment of compensation where appropriate by State authorities for damage to property and livelihoods sustained during targeted attacks on communities within their jurisdictions;

4. Ensuring that deceased victims of such violence are duly accorded dignified burial rites;

5. The immediate public and unequivocal condemnation of all manifestations of hatred, targeted violence, and other hate crimes against ethnic, religious, and minority groups;

6. Ensuring that local security initiatives—whether State Govt law enforcement agencies/local vigilante groups/ @PoliceNG Community Policing programme—are inclusive & composed with due consideration given to adequate representation of non-indigenous/minority resident communities;

NEW:
BBC has seen the official internal management data for the new post Brexit freight border - roll on roll off lorry outbound flows to EU now at 98% of last February - though was 73% in January... officials say “back to normal”...

That is reference to lorry flow rates - which is what Cabinet Office key committees most concerned about post Brexit in terms of knock on social impact for supplies of everything. Government now confident its “reasonable worst case scenario” of 7k lorries in kent won’t happen...

That is not same as saying trade has normalised - drawing on multiple sources - ferry manifests, Kent checks, french official data - the level of empty lorries on the short straits is around 50%, and was normally around 30%... ...

traffic here was 67% normal in Jan - 82% in feb

Combining those and you get to around 2000 fewer laden export trucks a day in January, still notable fall now. Officials say much was displaced into last year by stockpilers. On other hand French transport sources suggest the higher value Tunnel export empties more like 50-60%

Officials have been tracking the commodity codes on the ferry manifests and have distinguished between freight flows hit so far in 2021 by general COVID downturn - eg clothing and apparel, and post Brexit transition - agriculture, food and groupage