So, MAGA want to succeed from the union? Fine. Let 'em go. We'll take our Blue states & as many progressives as we can out of Red states and form our own country. That includes Hawaii, Oregon, California, New Mexico, Washington, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois, and (1)

Let me talk to those who are planning to buy cars these year; Buying a car is good. Very essential for making life easier. However, a car isn’t cheap, the cheapest car is around 450USD in Kenya. Today owning a car may seem very easy as compared to the 70s, THREAD 1/3

Today you can buy a car either in cash 💰, by bank finance, hire purchase and through trade in. But my interest on this post is on bank financing and Hire purchase. Bank finance is where the bank buys for you a car and you pay the bank for a period of time.

Hire purchase terms of purchase is where by you identify a car in a dealership, negotiate for its final price, pay an agreed deposit upfront then clear balance in defined period of time I.e in 6/12/18/20/24 months. So HP =Deposit + total Monthly Installments.

Whenever a bank offers to buy you a car, there is always a 99.9% chance that they will retain the logbook[A substitute for a collateral in lending] A logbook is the only instrument of ownership for any car in Kenya. So the bank will issue you with your logbook once you finish,

Finish paying for the car. The only problem I have with bank financing is the possibility of the buyer losing the car and servicing the loan. It has happened and it does happen. The bank repossesses the car and they auction it. You shall have lost two important things; the money

The Next 20 Years

Just look around you in Nigeria, for example. 20 years ago, the ATM machine was a novelty. No bank issued debit cards- maybe just the foreign ones. There were no banking apps. You couldn't transfer funds the way we do now.

It took 7 days for your 'upcountry' cheques to clear- meaning that if someone pays you a cheque in Sokoto and you pay it in in Ibadan, you had to wait for 7 days to receive value. Later, it became 3 days.

I recall as a young banker, I used to go to the CBN Clearing House with a box that was locked by my supervisor and which could only be opened by the CBN Clearing Supervisor. I carried that box like it was my life.

I had cheques of other banks and a very huge calculator we called casting machine inside that 'portmanteau'.

Around this period 20 years ago, there was an influx of new generation banks that changed the landscape. Now, see how the banks have changed in 20 years. In just 20 years, the banking sector in Nigeria is the one of the most sophisticated in Africa. So much progress has been made

1/ By far, the biggest Ponzi scheme I've discovered until now was the diamonds one. In 2014, two years before other media and 3 years before prosecutors, I wrote stories about physical diamonds sold by 2 brokers through banks to tens of thousands of Italian investors.

2 / Diamonds were sold at constantly rising prices in a sort of linear progression, which wasn't related to real market prices. The prices were produced by the two brokers themselves, Intermarket Diamond Business (Idb) and Diamond Private Investment (Dpi), then published monthly

3/They published monthly table of their prices in markets pages on my newspaper, Il Sole 24 Ore, Italy's highest-selling financial daily. Then the 2 diamonds brokers cut the price tables from the pages and presented them to the public as "Il Sole 24 Ore records" but they weren't

4 / People were lured into the scheme with the promise of constantly revaluating physical luxury assets, easy to be hidden (a lot of diamonds were sold to tax evaders and probably gangsters). For just connecting their clients to the 2 brokers, banks earned 15-20% fees.

5 / The business throve thanks to a hole in Italy's financial regulations: diamonds weren't overseen neither by Bank authority Bank of Italy nor financial authority Consob. In two decades, the 2 brokers sold diamonds for 2/3 billion € proceeds.

Why should we be careful when talking about a “jobs bounce-back” in South Africa? - A THREAD.

You don’t get better labour market economists in South Africa than the @NIDS_CRAM team, but the main finding of an “employment bounce-back” seems counterintuitive. What’s going on? 1/n

NIDS-CRAM does NOT show a rebound to pre-COVID employment levels. They report 700,000 job lost between Feb and Oct 2020, this is massive = 3.85% fall (broad definition). The authors of the employment paper say this could be as high as 5.3% or 960,000 jobs.

The authors @joshbudlender @ihsaanbassier (+ Rocco) also show that Oct employment is normally higher than Feb employment, super roughly Oct is plausibly around 102% of Feb. This means it’s plausible 360,000 jobs would have been gained between Feb-Oct *anyway*.

This would mean - within the study parameters - it’s possible COVID has caused up to (an outer outer limit) of 1.32 million job losses when comparing Oct 2020 with what we would have expected it to be in normal times. This is a total disaster in the context of the SA economy.

This is roughly what we should expect from the StatsSA QLFS. This showed 2.2 million jobs lost in first half of 2020, and 543,000 regained in Q3, meaning a loss of just under 1.7 million jobs in first 9 months. We’d definitely expect some more jobs regained in Oct-Dec.