BC TRADING

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philippe laffont
@plaffont 5 years, 9 months ago 679 views

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To be a good public investor, you don’t need to be a genius or own a crystal ball but you do have to make a few big calls.

2/ In my case, I started in January of 2000, was up 20pct after the first month, and thinking this was pretty easy. Then the nasdaq dropped from 5000 to below 1000. That was a proper wake up call!

3/ I only made 2 big calls in the first 10 years or so but those were enough. If 90pct of your book goes up 8pct/year (historical public returns) and 10pct doubles, then you are up twice as much as the market and that’s a big number as it compounds.

4/ My first big call was recognizing the bubble in 2000. It took me 12 months but I was ready for 2001/2 once I understood how the excessive financing of dot.coms would eventually affect hardware and semiconductor companies. Seeing how the cobweb ties all the players was helpful.

5/ I missed the rally post 2003 but then stumbled on Apple computer in 2007. At the time I was very annoyed because I had dismissed the iPod and the stock had moved from $25 to $100 (or $1 to $4 post 28-1 splits)

6/ But I did go see Steve Job on stage present the new iPhone and I knew it immediately. Listening to your instincts (and sleeping on them for a few days to double check) that was it. Nothing very clever.

7/ In 2007 apple traded at 30x EPS but only 3x 5 years out. The art of growth investing is realizing a stock that appears expensive today can be dirt cheap 5-7 years later. Multi baggers are the source of most outperformance and hide many mistakes.

8/ Once you find a multi bagger it’s time to peel the onion. Who was going to draft or collide with all this value creation? Apple had many implications for incumbents like Nokia and Blackberry but also created powerful new semiconductor companies.

9/ Public investors are not always as imaginative as private investors. But they dispose of a large library of good and business models and can quickly zero in on the key metrics that matter. Not all growth is created equal and not every projection is to be accepted.

10/ What has worked for me is focusing on TAM (market size), earnings, growth and the corresponding P/E multiple 5-7 years out. That means I’m a very mediocre macro and cyclical investor though I need to be reminded of that more than I care to admit.

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LearnLifeWealthTravel ...
@AnyBodyCanFly

Model Portfolio 3

Time Horizon 3 years or earlier ~ Depends on if the stock performs significantly well in faster time. Review of business performance important every quarter.

This portfolio is suitable for aggressive investors who believe in risk taking and look for growth

Name %allocation

~ Laurus Labs 15%
~ Balaji Amines 15%
~ Deepak Nitrite 15%
~ Kopran 10%
~ Pokarna 10%
~ Eveready 10%
~ Dynpro 10%
~ Manorama 5%
~ Adani Enterprises 5%
~ SHIL 5%

~ Laurus Labs
~ Kopran

My top two picks in pharma sector are Laurus Lab and Kopran.

These have good earnings predictability, growth visibility & significant undervaluation. Growing from small to medium and to big.

Earnings can grow and valuations multiple can grow accordingly.

~ Balaji Amines
~ Deepak Nitrite
~ Dynpro

These three are my top picks in Chemicals.

These have good earnings predictability, growth visibility & significant undervaluation. Growing from small to medium and to big.

Earnings can grow and valuations multiple can grow accordingly

~ Pokarna
~ Eveready
~ SHIL

These three are my top picks in Home Consumption.

These have good earnings predictability, growth visibility & significant undervaluation. Growing from small to medium and to big.

Earnings can grow and valuations multiple can grow accordingly.

Meet Shah
@ms89_meet

Thread on "The Final Checklist"
by Peter Lynch.

~ Ideas can come from anywhere - Peter Lynch.

~ If you can't find any companies that you think are attractive, put your money in the bank until you discover some - Peter Lynch.

~ All you need for a lifetime of successful investing is a few big winners, and the pluses from those will overwhelm the minuses from the stocks that don’t work out - Peter Lynch.

~ Time is on your side when you own shares of superior companies - Peter Lynch.

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Keval Ashar
@KevalAshar

Indian Investing Conclave Day 1 @IIC_2020

:Route Mobile
:Philip Carbon Black
:Borosil Ltd
:Arvind Ltd
:Hawkins Cooker
:Repco Homes
:Shaily Engineering Plastics

Route Mobile @ravidharamshi77

Investment Hypothesis in CPaaS companies

:Crossed the technology adoption chasm
:Huge addressable opportunity - Industry growth estimates 30-50%
:Profitable Unit Economics, Cash Generating, Incremental Cost Low

CPaaS growing at 40%

Route Mobile

:Applications served by route mobile - Facebook, Instagram, Whatsapp, Google Pay to name a few
:Route mobile platform used for : 2 factor authentication, Notification for customer engagement across portfolio of apps

Route Mobile Key points

:Scaled upto 1200cr of revenue from internal accruals
:Huge runway for growth
:Multi geography and Omni-Channel presence
:Cash available for M&A
:Scope of margin improvement
:Demonstrated ability to move up the value scale

Philips Carbon Black @sarkaraniruddha

:Indias largest carbon black manufacturer
:Where is carbon black used, Tyre Rubber(73%), Non Tyre Rubber (20%), Non Rubber Speciality Carbon (7%)

Industry Size & Capacity Addition
1.3 Million Tonnes capacity and PCB has 43% market share

Trader knight
@Traderknight007

Life is a continuous journey of going through peaks and troughs of Happiness and struggle.

We can only see the Happy part of other lives, but ignore what they might have gone through to achieve that.

But let me tell you, even if someone is at ease right now, doesn't mean that he will continue to be at ease for their whole life.

The struggle will come again and we will have to go through it ,whatever we do, whoever we are , we have to cross that river of pain.

Even,In trading there are times when nothing works out, you go through long time and money draw-downs.

Even if you think you are a master, you have to go through it.

If you are struggling right now, don't lose hope as the tables will turn.

But remember to work as hard as you can and do as much good work as you can in your ease or Joyful time of life, because the tables will turn again.

Thank you for reading.

Trader knight.

$Shravan Venkataraman \U0001f525\U0001f680\U0001f4b0$

Shravan Venkataraman 🔥...
@theBuoyantMan

Working on some execution optimisation related backtesting. I have so far been executing with market orders only. Going towards higher lot sizes, I'd like to optimise for minimal slippage.

First off, on NSE, if you place a market order, you get filled at the best bid/ask right?

If we want to optimise this, the first non-creative idea one can think of is, slicing the order into different lot sizes, and placing a limit order for each slice at the mid point of current best bid & ask.

But this requires your latency to be the least.

Why would latency affect it?

I looked at tick historical data, and there are more than 18-20 ticks in a second (auction and quote combined).

Even if you keep 10 ticks per second, your best bid/ask can shift from the time you place to the time exchange receives the order.

So, the next best thing that people can do is place tranches of orders every 1s, 3s, 5s, 10s, 15s - in their preferred time range, and get filled at the midpoint or best-bid+1/2/3/4/5 in the depth.

What you need is liquidity.

But if you're trading breakouts, then it's highly likely that your limit orders may not get filled if the action is too fast.

So, a retry mechanism is required in such cases.

If nothing works, you convert your orders to marketable and get filled at worse slippage.

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Vibhu Vashisth
@VIBHU_Tweet

RISHI PINGALA:THE ANCIENT INDIAN SAGE DISCREDITED FOR HIS MAJOR CONTRIBUTIONS TO MATHEMATICS & PHI

Have you ever heard about,"The Golden Ratio"?
The Golden Ratio or Phi(Greek) is a mathematical ratio of nature. Mother Nature is the most exquisite artist in herself.

&Its this Phi she uses to create all the beauty in World.
If anyone uses this ratio correctly in their art,it can turn into a spell-binding piece of work.Such is the significance of'Phi'.But my thread isn't about it.Its about somethin called'Fibonacci Series'&who actually made it

Phi is related to Fibonacci series(0,1,1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34...)
&this series is responsible for everything dat is beautiful on this planet. Just try to calculate the ratio of any 2 successive numbers ÷ each of them by the number before it in above infinite series.

E.g. 3/2=1.5, 5/3=1.666, 8/5=1.6, 34/21=1.61904 and so on. Did you notice something? The ratio is coming almost same every time. This ratio is called 'Phi 'which is numerically represented as 1:1.618. This Golden Spiral is made in exact proportion of 1:1.618.

The thing I want to emphasize here is that we always find only those things appealing and attractive that have Phi. It's in our subconscious. Isn't it some revelation? We are the part of this Divine proportion of the God or the Mother Nature. Check these:

Brian Cates
@drawandstrike

Trump is gonna let the Mueller investigation end all on it's own. It's obvious. All the hysteria of the past 2 weeks about his supposed impending firing of Mueller was a distraction. He was never going to fire Mueller and he's not going to

BREAKING: President Donald Trump has submitted his answers to questions from special counsel Robert Mueller
— Ryan Saavedra (@RealSaavedra) November 20, 2018

Mueller's officially end his investigation all on his own and he's gonna say he found no evidence of Trump campaign/Russian collusion during the 2016 election.

Democrats & DNC Media are going to LITERALLY have nothing coherent to say in response to that.

Mueller's team was 100% partisan.

That's why it's brilliant. NOBODY will be able to claim this team of partisan Democrats didn't go the EXTRA 20 MILES looking for ANY evidence they could find of Trump campaign/Russian collusion during the 2016 election

They looked high.

They looked low.

They looked underneath every rock, behind every tree, into every bush.

And they found...NOTHING.

Those saying Mueller will file obstruction charges against Trump: laughable.

What documents did Trump tell the Mueller team it couldn't have? What witnesses were withheld and never interviewed?

THERE WEREN'T ANY.

Mueller got full 100% cooperation as the record will show.

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Anshul Pandey
@Anshulspiritual

LING PURANA: IMPORTANCE AND CHARACTERISTICS

Reading Ling Purana provides bhog and moksha to the reader and listeners. It is about Shiva's sermon to Brahma when Shiva entered the Agni Ling and preached about Dharma sidhhi through the stories of Agni Kalp.

Vyasji divided this into two parts. This book is different from others and has eleven thousand shlokas which depict the glory of Shiva. This Puran is the summary about importance of Tridev.
It starts first with a questions. Then it describes the Shrishti in brief.

Then there is description of Yog and Kalp. Next is the evolution of Ling and its puja Vidhi. It consists of dialogue between Sanat Kumar and Shail etc. It also mentions the character of Dadhichi, the dharma representation of that yug, Bhuvan kosh description,

Chandravansh and Surya vansh. Next there is elaborate description of Shrishti, story of Tripur, Ling and Pashu Paash vimoksha, Vrats for Shiva, Discipline, Repentance, Arisht, description of Shri Shail. Next is the story of Andhakasur, Varah, Narsingh,

k¡lling of Jalandhar, Shiv sahastra naam, story of Daksha's yagya and its destruction, killing of Madan and marriage of Parvati.

Next is Vinayak katha, Shiv tandav, Ambrish katha and Upmanyu .

Steve Stewart-Williams
@SteveStuWill

THREAD: 12 Things Everyone Should Know About IQ

1. IQ is one of the most heritable psychological traits – that is, individual differences in IQ are strongly associated with individual differences in genes (at least in fairly typical modern environments). https://t.co/3XxzW9bxLE

2. The heritability of IQ *increases* from childhood to adulthood. Meanwhile, the effect of the shared environment largely fades away. In other words, when it comes to IQ, nature becomes more important as we get older, nurture less. https://t.co/UqtS1lpw3n

3. IQ scores have been increasing for the last century or so, a phenomenon known as the Flynn effect. https://t.co/sCZvCst3hw (N ≈ 4 million)

(Note that the Flynn effect shows that IQ isn't 100% genetic; it doesn't show that it's 100% environmental.)

4. IQ predicts many important real world outcomes.

For example, though far from perfect, IQ is the single-best predictor of job performance we have – much better than Emotional Intelligence, the Big Five, Grit, etc. https://t.co/rKUgKDAAVx https://t.co/DWbVI8QSU3

5. Higher IQ is associated with a lower risk of death from most causes, including cardiovascular disease, respiratory disease, most forms of cancer, homicide, suicide, and accident. https://t.co/PJjGNyeQRA (N = 728,160)

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