I’d like to share a story about the benefits of investing in the private and public markets and how the private market mindset can help public equity investors.

2/A few years ago we invested in a private company called Meituan (3690 HK). Meituan is like doordash or Uber eats and we thought in China, with over 100 cities >1m pop, this would be a huge market. The other competitor was owned by Alibaba.
3/The company went public less than two years later at 70. We were ecstatic! Then the stock rapidly plunged to 40 based on renewed fears of competition with https://t.co/oVbw4yOOYV (Alibaba)
4/At the time we were locked up so there was nothing we could do. Today the stock is at almost 300 and $250B market cap. I fear what we might have done if not subjected to the lock up!
5/What’s the learning? In the private markets, the focus -FIRST- is TAM (size of market), then second everything else. And the stock price is static unless there is a new round. So you have time to develop your thesis.
6/In the public markets, lots of things can affect the stock price over the short run, and one can make mistakes by overestimating data about temporary problems.
7/Patience, and confidence in the 7-10 year story (how many orders per day can Meituan generate if every urban household orders 2 meals per week...) will drive the stock so much higher than one can process during painful stock fluctuations!
8/Private investing is about imagining the future as there is less data to analyze than as a public company, and that foresight usually compounds the variant perception with time.
9/ Conc: Imagination is the skill. Uncertainty is the opportunity. Data is important but so is the story. Patience is way underrated.
10/Question: How many daily orders will Meituan generate in 7-10 years? ( today it’s already >30m/day)

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Many of you have seen the famous Westrum Organizational Typology model, so prominently featured in State of DevOps Research, Accelerate, DevOps Handbook, etc.

This model was created Dr. Ron Westrum, a widely-cited sociologist who studied the impact of culture on safety


Thanks to Dr. @nicolefv, I was able to interview him for an upcoming episode of the Idealcast! 🤯

It was a very heady experience, and while preparing to interview him, I was startled to discover how much work he's done in healthcare, aviation, spaceflight, but also innovation.

I've read 4+ of his papers, so I thought I was familiar with his work. (Here's one paper:
https://t.co/7X00O67VgS)

I was startled to learn he has also studied in depth what enables innovation. He wrote a wonderful book "Sidewinder: Creative Missile Development at China Lake"


Dr. Westrum writes about China Lake Research Labs: "its design and structure had one purpose: to foster technical creativity. It did; China Lake operated far outside the normal envelope... Sidewinder & others were "impossible" accomplishments,

I love this book because it describes traits of organizations that routinely create and maintain greatness: US space program (Mercury, Gemini, Apollo), US Naval Reactors, Toyota, Team of Teams, Tesla, the tech giants (Amazon, Google, Netflix, Google)

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