BC TRADING
Saved by @Alex1Powell

Short thread on emotions in trading

A common meme is that the best traders are the least emotional. I’m calling BS on this.

I’ve analysed the Psychological make-up of many brilliant traders over many years using psychometrics. And whilst this isn’t scientific research.

1/9

 I’ve not found a correlation between people’s emotional intensity & their performance. Some of the very best traders I come across are highly emotional.

Risk is felt, it’s not something that can be quantified despite the failed attempts of many. 2/9
Of course allowing your emotions to control your trading is unhelpful, but some of the ‘emotional’ types have learned to master this and have become incredibly adept at it.

The fact that they don’t suppress their emotions aids this process.

They use their emotions as

3/9
clues and triggers on their internal radar. It’s a skill which great traders learn to do.

Feeling their emotions & being aware of them enables them to identify opportunities & threats with great haste, giving them an edge over ‘less emotional’ types who are not able to

4/9
recognise some signals.

By contracts the less emotional types can tend to be overconfident & don’t always see (because they don’t feel) the degree of risk or threat in situations.

I am not saying emotional or unemotional is superior. Both types can and do succeed.

5/9
What matters is doing it in a way that’s congruent to personality. Being able to leverage the different edges their personalities offer them, & being able to mitigate the different threats & blindspots their types manifest.

What matters is congruence: There are certain 6/9
styles & types of trading that are more suited to certain personalities (though never exclusively due to ability to adapt and the use of tools).

For emotional types, I ‘tend’ to find that the shorter-term/faster the style or signal, the better it is.

7/9
Also they ‘may’ be highly creative & adaptable, making them quick to spot new or changes in trends.

Again this creative ‘edge’, which isn’t necessarily unique to, but seems to tend towards, emotional types, can be highly valuable to designing systems or new methods.

8/9
I hope people find this useful. It’s just a short thread, but I wanted to dispel a myth.

Everyone suffers the fight with emotions (emotional & unemotional types). Learning to manage & deal with this internally is the battle. We aren’t robots, we can’t help but have emotions.
9/9

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@EmperorBTC
CHEAT-SHEET

Multiple Confirmation short.

A Short Entry that we shared in 2020.

Study it point wise.

1. Bearish Candle type and lowering of volume on Price rise.

2. OBV divergence.

3. Accumulation with Bearish candles and Volume increase on Price decrease.

STUDY IT!


Explanation

1. When price increases with a decreasing volume, it's bearish.

2. OBV, On Balance Volume should be correlated with price.
If price increases without similar increase in OBV, it's bearish.

3. During consolidation, if the volume increases during dumps, it's bearish
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Aaron D.
Aaron D.
@MrBrownEyes2020
So what will be the aftermath of this GME event?

These are simply my guesses, I don't actually know.

Wallstreet will likely push for licenses being necessary to trade, or put more limits on how many trades you can make, or some other way to screw the average person trading. 1/

FYI, you can only make 4 trades in a day, but if you have more than $25,000 in your account you can make as many as you want.

The system is rigged against the poor, and weighted heavily in favour of the rich. 2/

Will the government shut down the market?

It's possible, but I doubt it.
It would open up new precedents and the optics would be terrible- i.e. shutting down the market because greedy hedgefunds fucked up, and normal people are taking them to the cleaners. 3/

If the government gives in to Wallstreet, they lose all credibility, because this story is basically David vs Goliath, where the Reddit guys are the good guys, and the hedgefunds are the bad guys.

4/

Likely they will implement similar rules to Europe, that stops naked short selling.

Anything more than that, I'm not sure.
I think the media will push the threat of the government shutting down trading, in order to scare people into selling, to give short sellers a way out. 5/
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Robot James
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@therobotjames
In my 20 years of trading I have noticed this cycle play out again and again with traders that "make it":

1. Overconfidently reach for returns
2. Get humbled by the market
3. Simplify + concentrate on clear, high probability edges.

1/n

Nearly everyone starts with a lack of respect for how hard it is to consistently make money trading.

That leads them to pass over high-probability sources of returns in favor of more marginal ideas.

Or they overcomplicate the trading of a good edge.

2/n

Here's an example...

It is 2015. You look at a simple strategy.

You hold an equal dollar exposure to:
- Cap Weighted US Stocks (VTI)
- 20+ Yr US Treasury Bonds (TLT)
- Gold (GLD)

And rebalance each month.

(I've extended back a bit with mutual fund prices.)

3/n


It made money consistently with a few blips.

You'd have 4x your money from 1997 to 2015.

It makes sense. It's harnessing two big sources of risk premia (equity + duration).

It diversifies across 3 macro assets that tend to outperform in different econ environments

4/n

But, naturally, you turn your mind to how you could do better...

And here is where it gets dangerous!

There are good ways to try to "do better", and there are bad ways to try to "do better".

5/n
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CathieFan
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@EffingTrader
Charts Time!
Follow the thread
$SPY $SPX $QQQ $JETS $NVDA $AMZN $XLE $XLF $PLTR $IWM $TRAN $MJ

$SPY
still looks very bullish on weekly, i expect it to move to 400 early next week


$QQQ
#QQQ similar on weekly, if it dips anywhere close towards 320, buy weeklies and monthlies as its gonna go right back up, below this line though we'll see what happens


$IWM
small caps have absolutely been on fire #IWM since elections, do you think the run continues?


$JETS
#Jets monthly chart - check out the base range it created since 2017 until pandemic, 28-32, looks like its creating a nice long pattern and trying to go back to that range, lets see if it continues and breaks 28 again
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Val Katayev
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@ValKatayev
A former CIA math genius built a quantitative trading fund that earned more than $100 BILLION for investors.

At 66% return/yr, his track record destroys that of Warren Buffet, George Soros, Carl Icahn, and every investor who ever lived.

The Smartest Billionaire in Finance:


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If you'd have put $100 into Jim Simons' Medallion Fund in 1988, it would be $400M+ today.

By contrast,

$100 in the S&P 500 in 1988, would be $2,000 in 2022. (roughly)

Let that sink in.

2/28
Jim Simons's Medallion fund has had unreasonably high annual returns of 66% across 30 years.

For comparison, Buffet clocked in at about 20%/yr.

Many funds don't make that in a lifetime.

3/28
Even during the financial crisis of 2008, it made a net return of 82.38%.

They make so much money for their investors that they charge 44% in management fees.

The industry standard is 20%.


4/28
It uses math calculations to decide the bulk of its trades, & none of the market trends apply to how it performs.

It wins by finding order in chaos.

The fund is managed by Renaissance Technologies, the parent company founded by the mathematical genius Jim Simons.
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Some thoughts on episode 53 of #Hercai

Love,that is not real,has no passion. Its fire turns into embers, it doesn’t not smell. The day, the night, the moon&year burn without sun, light, comfort&sleep.
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1
PRAISE
The praise in this episode goes foremost to Ebru because she portrayed Reyyan so realistically like a woman who truly lost her unborn child. I was in awe and pain watching her along the episode, all her breakdowns and tears were so real.
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Of course also Akın took his part and did his part masterfully, but he rightfully was the one who stood aside in this specific episode that needed to be about Reyyan’s pain and thus concentrated on Ebru.
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I don’t know who wrote ep. 52 but ep. 53 was going strong once more on symbols: roses, stones, fire and trees were incorporated and especially the ReyMir dialogues were written very well. I truly loved every ReyMir scene.
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A relationship begins to get stiff when excessive patterns begin to form.

Too many patterns leads to a boring, predictable, logical lifestyle.

Get the emotions involved.

Do something spontaneous out of the blue moon & flip the script.

'What's wrong with the patterns?'

Nothing is wrong with patterns.

However, there is a problem when all you have are patterns.

It's boring.

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Sure 👇

The thing with relationships is that it's meant to be an emotional experience.

It's very difficult to logically explain love, right?

'Right.'

Well this is where you want to steer the ship the right way.

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2. Too logical is bad.

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1. Too emotional

If a relationship is completely ruled by emotions, then it's too volatile.

You will never reach productivity if you are aimlessly only following each others emotions.

This lifestyle tarnishes any structure for the couple.

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Because it's fun.

You may ruled by this stage in the honeymoon phase.

Normal.

You'll be so spontaneous that it almost becomes a lifestyle.

But it's hard to level up your life when you're too spontaneous.

Avoid.
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