BC TRADING
Saved by @jacobhtml

1/ How to review quarterly earnings 🧵

A step by step guide using $DXCM as an example

⬇️

 2/ The BIG question: Is the thesis on trackâť“

Other question:

âť“Is revenue growing?
âť“Are margins stable/expanding?
âť“Profits?
âť“Balance sheet?
âť“New opportunities?
âť“New threats?
3/ I open 4 browser tabs

Tab 1 - Current company earnings report / shareholder letter

Tab 2 - Previous company earnings report / shareholder letter (check guidance)

Tab 3 - Analyst estimates

Tab 4 - Call Transcript
4/ Tabs 1 & 2 - Find the current & previous earnings report

I search "Dexcom Investor Relations"

I click on "press release"

Open the newest quarterly earnings report and last quarter

It can also be a shareholder letter/presentation
5/ Tab 3 - Find the quarterly analyst estimates

Open up $DXCM in yahoo finance

The "news" section usually has a link to reports on whether the company beat/met estimates

The "analysis" tab is a good source, but sometimes it updates to the next quarter too quickly
6/ Tab 4 - Find a transcript of the earnings call

@themotleyfool transcripts are best

Sometimes links are on Yahoo Finance news

Search "Fool DXCM Transcript" if not

Seekingalpha / NASDAQ are two other free sources
7/ In most recent earnings, I check the headline numbers:

Revenue growth: 23% to $569 million
Revenue vs. Wall Street expectations (beat by 1.88%)âś…

non-gaap EPS growth: -21% to $0.91

EPS vs. Wall Street expectations (meet expectation)âś…
8/ Results vs. guidance

Management issued yearly guidance for 2020 in Q3 2020

Revenue +29% to $1.9 billion (actual +31% to $1.93 billion)âś…

Non-GAAP Gross margin 66% (actual 66.7%)âś…

Non-GAAP Operating margin 16% (actual 16.5%)âś…
9/ Balance Sheet

$2.71 billion cash

$1.67 billion long-term convertible notes
10/

Margins

Use transcript / press release / or calculate yourself

Gross 70.2% vs. 66.8% (gross profit grew faster than revenue)

Non-gaap Operating: 18.3% vs. 22.5% (investigate!)

non-gaap Net: 15.8% vs. 22.9% (investigate!)
11/

News from press release?

âś…Building out salesforce (explains operating margin & net margin drop)

âś…Reimbursement in France
12/

Read through transcript:

✅Gross margin ⬆️ from new manufacturing facility

âś…Super bowl commerical

âś…New service center in Lithuania

âś…New manufacturing site in Malaysia

âś…New sensor launching in 2nd half 2021

âś…Enter VC space
13/ Transcript

âś…50% of sales now coming through pharmacy

âś…International sales 35% of revenue

âś…International DTC campaign launching
14/

2021 Guidance:

Revenue:
Management expects 15% to 20% growth

Wall Street expects 21%

Margins:
Gross ⬇️ to 65%
Operating ⬇️ 13%
15/

Management has a long history of under-promising & over-delivering, so I view these numbers as the floor, not the ceiling
16/

My big takeaways:

âś…Revenue growing
âś…Gross margin expanding
âś…International expansion
âś…Reinvestment year causing bottom-line to look worse
🛑2021 Margins will be weak
âś…Move to pharmacy working
âś…G7 launching in 2021
âś…VC fund adds optionality

THESIS ON TRACK
17/

If you own $DXCM, the best move is to continue to do nothing
18/

Best guess is that $DXCM is in the top of the 5th inning of its growth cycle
19/ I email financial graphics like these every day for free

Interested?

https://t.co/SjeNPpNAHN

More from Brian Feroldi

Brian Feroldi
Brian Feroldi
@BrianFeroldi
1/ Mission Statements 🧵

I used to think mission statements were just corporate fluff

False words that companies created for HR reasons

I've slowly changed my mind about them

They are THE BEST stakeholder alignment & decision-making tool ever

EVER!

Need convincing? ⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️

2/ What is a mission statement?

At its core, a mission statement should answer this question:

*****Why does the company exist?*****

A profound question that is easy to overlook!

3/ When used properly

Mission Statements should guide ALL of the actions of the organization

It's like a company's North Star

If an activity doesn’t advance the mission,

it should be discarded!

If an activity does advance the mission,

it should be adopted!

4/ A Mission and a Vision statement are different

Mission: WHY the company exists

Vision: What the company/world looks like if the company is successful

Both important, but they are NOT interchangeable

5/ The reason I used to think mission statements didn't matter

is because the vast majority of companies/CEOs

don't believe they matter!

Most companies SUCK at creating & communicating them!

Why should employees/shareholders care about a mission

if the company/CEO doesn't?
FINANCE
Brian Feroldi
Brian Feroldi
@BrianFeroldi
Panic selling once can destroy years of good investment decisions in an instant

but keeping your head on straight when your portfolio is tanking is hard

Here are 13 investing tips/tricks/principles that I use to keep calm when my portfolio is in free fall:

1/ Know what you own and why you own it

You can borrow stock ideas from other investors, but you can’t borrow conviction

You must understand the bull AND bear case upfront, otherwise you won’t have the conviction to hold when the price is going down

Research builds conviction

Conviction enables patience

Patience builds wealth

If a 20% drop shakes your confidence in a business, you didn’t do enough research

2/ Know what drives long-term stock returns

In the short-term, emotions & computer algorithms determine stock prices

In the long-term, profit growth determine stock prices

This is a core investing principle that you must fully embrace

Look at these long-term charts of $MSFT, $HD, and $AAPL

Net income growth & stock price growth are closely linked in the long-term

That’s not a coincidence — profit growth IS WHAT DRIVES long-term value creation
LONGTERMINVESTINGPSYCHOLOGY
Advertisement
Brian Feroldi
Brian Feroldi
@BrianFeroldi
Accounting is the language of business.

If you buy stocks, you MUST learn how to read a balance sheet.

Here’s everything you need to know:

The balance sheet is one of the 3 major financial statements.

It shows company’s:

▪️Assets: What it owns
▪️Liabilities: What it owes
▪️Shareholders Equity: It's net worth attributable to its owners

At a fixed point in time

That “at a point in time” part is key!

A balance sheet is a SNAPSHOT of a company’s net worth.

It is usually measured at the end of a quarter/year.

That’s different from an income statement or cash flow statement, both of which are measured over periods of time

All balance sheets follow the same formula:

Assets = Liabilities + Shareholders Equity

This formula must be in balance at all times

(Hence the term “balance sheet”)


Side Note:

This formula can be easily re-arranged into the “net worth” formula that you are already familiar with

Assets - Liabilities = Shareholders Equity (Net worth)
BALANCESHEET
Brian Feroldi
Brian Feroldi
@BrianFeroldi
Worried about the recent market drop?

Here are 24 top investing quotes from Buffett, Bogle, Graham, and more that can help🧵

"If you have trouble imagining a 20% loss in the stock market, you shouldn’t be in stocks."

-- John Bogle

"Opportunities come infrequently. When it rains gold, put out the bucket, not the thimble."

-- Warren Buffett

“Individuals who cannot master their emotions are ill-suited to profit from the investment process”

-- Benjamin Graham

"A calm sea does not produce a skilled sailor."

-- Tom Culve
INVESTING
Brian Feroldi
Brian Feroldi
@BrianFeroldi
Last week, I asked my followers to share their favorite Twitter threads

I receive tons of wonderful replies and read through them all

Here are 31 amazing threads that are well worth your time ⬇️

1/ @10kdiver on


2/ @aaronbush100 on 20 semi-controversial investing


3/ @annieduke on category


4/ @awilkinson on losing
ALL

More from Trading

Trader knight
Trader knight
@Traderknight007
A thread on Pyramiding-


What is pyramiding?

In pyramiding we add on to a position when it is going in our direction. Its basically opposite of averaging down.

MOMENTUM - Success of a pyramiding trade depend on this ingredient, the more the momentum the better pyramiding.


There are many way to enter and exit in a stock-

1. ALL IN - ALL OUT
2. ALL IN - SCALE OUT
3. SCALE IN - SCALE OUT
4. SCALE IN - ALL OUT ( I use this one)

Why traders use Pyramiding ?

More than anything what pyramiding do is keep your losers small and your winners - Big.

Pyramiding in my view keeps your dd smaller as your losers are very small because you enters with only a fraction of what you would have entered Normally.

BUT, not necessarily it should be more profitable than ALL IN- ALL OUT, Where one enters all at once and sell all at once.

HOW TO DO PYRAMIDING-

There are various methods which are used by traders for pyramiding ,while keeping the basic concept of adding onto the strength.

1. PYRAMIDING AND TRAILING BASED UPON STRUCTURE-

In this method we scale in or pyramid the qty when the stock breaks above
TRADING
Trader knight
Trader knight
@Traderknight007
A thread on SCALING IN - OUT METHOD -


What is scaling in - out?

1. Scaling in is adding on to the positions when they move in our favor (Pyramiding).

2. Scaling - out is exiting the portion of the position when the trade moves in our favor.

I have explained about pyramiding in previous tweets.

// Why use scaling out instead of exiting all position at once ?

When you are using ALL - out method where you exit positions at once, mostly you use wider Trail SL as you want to capture big moves and exit all when trail sl hits.

The problem with this method is that either you make too big or many times your medium size winners turns out to become Scratch trades.

So, when we use the scaling out method, we are trying to capture most of our medium size trades , so that they do not turn into scratch trades.

// How to use scaling out method -

Say we have to got a signal to enter in a trade, and we have to buy 1200 qty according to our Position sizing.

So, we have to divide this 1200 qty into parts, how much? It depends on you.

We can divide into 3 parts, each part 400 qty.
TRADING
Advertisement
Amrit Kummer
Amrit Kummer
@maqstik
Some observations and thoughts on ZILSwap: What went well, its impact on the $ZIL ecosystem and where we need to improve with some concrete plans that are being worked on. A thread:

👇

1/ ZILSwap was launched by @SwitcheoNetwork on Oct 5, 2020 (~2 months old). Soon after, we noticed for the first time, a flurry of ZRC-2 tokens (equiv. of ERC20s on $ZIL) getting launched on the network (even though the fungible token standard had been around for a while).

2/ The ability to provide a marketplace for people to exchange tokens was the trigger for deveopers to start issuing tokens and developing a token economy. In fact, there was a token for which, the entire supply was put on a ZILSwap pool w/o any team withholding.

3/ This was an extreme example of why a DEX was needed and the role it played in bootstrapping several tokens and respective token economies. Over 25 tokens are available on ZILSwap in the form of liquidity pools. The total pool size across all tokens is over USD 1 million.

4/ ZILSwap also made it possible for the first time for anyone to get access to $XSGD (the Singapore Dollar Stablecoin issued by @xfers). In fact $XSGD and $gZIL contribute the greatest proportion of the total pool.
TRADING
Aditya Todmal
Aditya Todmal
@AdityaTodmal
TradingView isn't just charts

It's much more powerful than you think

9 things TradingView can do, you'll wish you knew yesterday: 🧵

Collaborated with @niki_poojary

1/ Free Multi Timeframe Analysis

Step 1. Download Vivaldi Browser

Step 2. Login to trading view

Step 3. Open bank nifty chart in 4 separate windows

Step 4. Click on the first tab and shift + click by mouse on the last tab.

Step 5. Select "Tile all 4 tabs"


What happens is you get 4 charts joint on one screen.

Refer to the attached picture.

The best part about this is this is absolutely free to do.

Also, do note:

I do not have the paid version of trading view.


2/ Free Multiple Watchlists

Go through this informative thread where @sarosijghosh teaches you how to create multiple free watchlists in the free


3/ Free Segregation into different headers/sectors

You can create multiple sections sector-wise for free.

1. Long tap on any index/stock and click on "Add section above."
2. Secgregate the stocks/indices based on where they belong.

Kinda like how I did in the picture below.
SCREENERS , ALL , TRADINGVIEW
Val Katayev
Val Katayev
@ValKatayev
A former CIA math genius built a quantitative trading fund that earned more than $100 BILLION for investors.

At 66% return/yr, his track record destroys that of Warren Buffet, George Soros, Carl Icahn, and every investor who ever lived.

The Smartest Billionaire in Finance:


1/28
If you'd have put $100 into Jim Simons' Medallion Fund in 1988, it would be $400M+ today.

By contrast,

$100 in the S&P 500 in 1988, would be $2,000 in 2022. (roughly)

Let that sink in.

2/28
Jim Simons's Medallion fund has had unreasonably high annual returns of 66% across 30 years.

For comparison, Buffet clocked in at about 20%/yr.

Many funds don't make that in a lifetime.

3/28
Even during the financial crisis of 2008, it made a net return of 82.38%.

They make so much money for their investors that they charge 44% in management fees.

The industry standard is 20%.


4/28
It uses math calculations to decide the bulk of its trades, & none of the market trends apply to how it performs.

It wins by finding order in chaos.

The fund is managed by Renaissance Technologies, the parent company founded by the mathematical genius Jim Simons.
TRADING

You May Also Like

:Billy-Don :I-AM
:Billy-Don :I-AM
@ValiantThor12
1) đź’ś THE EVENT 2020 - THE 1221 MULTIDIMENSIONAL STARGATE đź’ś
PLEIADIAN LIGHT FORCES TRANSMISSIONS - 12182020
CHANNELED BY MICHAEL LOVE
A SPECIAL MESSAGE TO THE STARSEEDS OF NEW EARTH, FOR IMMEDIATE PLANETARY BROADCAST…
PRELUDE:
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS DERIVED FROM DIRECT,

2) DECODED ETHERIC TRANSMISSIONS FROM BENEVOLENT LIGHT FORCES DOCKED IN EARTH’S SOLAR SYSTEM AND SOME OF THE DATA COMES DIRECTLY FROM CERTAIN INSIDE EARTH ALLIANCE MEMBERS KNOWN AS THE WHITE HATS, AND THE GREAT WHITE BROTHERHOOD STRATEGICALLY PLACED IN KEY POSITIONS OF POWER BY

3) THE GALACTICS ON THE SURFACE OF PLANET EARTH!
THE DATA HEREIN IS RECEIVED AND TRANSMITTED FROM THE 5D LEVEL! THIS MESSAGE IS INTENDED ONLY FOR THE STARSEEDS OF EARTH!
GREAT ONES,
WE HAVE SPOKEN OF THE EVENT 2020 THIS ENTIRE EARTH YEAR AS ALL PLEIADIAN AND EARTH ALLIANCE INTEL

4) SHOWS INDEED THAT A MAJOR COSMIC EVENT IS GOING TO OCCUR IN ONLY 3 EARTH DAYS FROM NOW!
ON DECEMBER 21, 2020, A MAGNIFICENT CELESTIAL STARGATE WILL OPEN IN THE HEAVENS WHICH MARKS THE DAWN OF THE NEW GOLDEN AGE OF AQUARIUS AND THE 1ST DAY OF THE SATYUGA OF CENTRAL SUNLIGHT!

5) IN THE MORNING HOURS OF THE WINTER SOLSTICE, THE LONG-AWAITED NEW ERA OF LIGHT WILL FINALLY DAWN AND THE NEW 5D EARTH WILL BE BORN!
THE COSMIC GATES WILL BE FULLY OPENED ON 12/21/20 ALLOWING POWERFUL STREAMS OF COSMIC LIGHT TO ENTER EARTH'S ATMOSPHERE, UPGRADING ALL SENTIENT
ECONOMY
Kaspars Ozolins
Kaspars Ozolins
@lettlander
THREAD: Meditations on marriage metaphors in Ruth

The book of Ruth is, of course, a story about a beautiful marriage. But even before the courtship and the wedding and the important genealogy at the end, we find interesting language that is strikingly reminiscent of Genesis 2:24


That important verse reads:

'Therefore a man shall leave [יַֽעֲזָב] his father and his mother and hold fast [וְדָבַ֣ק] to his wife, and they shall become one flesh.'

The verb עזב can be quite strong in force. For example, Joseph leaves behind [וַיַּעֲזֹ֤ב] his garment as he flees from Pharaoh's wife's sexual advances. Countless times, Israel is depicted abandoning the LORD, for example in Judg 2:12 [וַיַּעַזְב֞וּ], and going after other gods.

Likewise, the verb דבק is rather striking. Lot is mortified of disaster overtaking him [תִּדְבָּקַ֥נִי] as he flees from Sodom. Israel is commanded in Deut 10:20 to cling fast [תִדְבָּ֔ק] to the LORD and serve him and swear by his name.

Together they illustrate how radical God designed marriage to be. Marriage is a real severing of family relations in order to form a new, permanent bond with another human being.

Something very similar to this takes places in Ruth's life.
HISTORY
Advertisement
Yoruba History - by NNP
Yoruba History - by NN...
@YorubaHistory
The Ife Primary Education Research Project (1970-1983).

aka

The Ife 6-Year Primary Project.


In 1970, as the Director of the Institute of Education of the then University of Ife (now Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife), later Dean Faculty of Education, Prof. Babs Fafunwa & his team embarked on one of the most groundbreaking research projects in education for Yorubaland.


The aim of the project was to test the hypothesis that the best instructional medium for good concept formation at a very tender age is the mother tongue.

This was bolstered by the observation that “of all the continents and peoples of the world, it is only in Africa…

…that formal education is offered in a language that is foreign to the child.”

So, Yoruba was to be used & tested as an exclusive medium of passing information or instructions to a set of pupils.

The project was based on the premise that:

(a). the child will benefit culturally, socially, linguistically & cognitively.

(b). the child’s command of English will be improved if he is taught English as an entirely separate subject by a specialist teacher through the 6 years.
ALL
Jaya_Upadhyaya
Jaya_Upadhyaya
@Jayalko1
NARHARI AND BHAGWAN PANDURANG/VITTHAL

Once a goldsmith by the name of Narhari lived in Pandharpur. He excelled in his craft. He had vowed not to look at Pandurang or visit his mandir ever, as he was a Shiva Bhakt.
One day, a wealthy merchant visited him.


He wanted a gold girdle studded with precious gems, to be made for Prabhu Vitthal. Narhari refused to make it as it was for Vitthal.
After many requests, he agreed to make the girdle but asked the merchant to bring the measurement from the mandir as he himself would not go there


The measurement was given n he made the girdle. When the girdle was put on Vitthal, it was loose. Narhari had to shorten it. Now the girdle became tight. So Narhari was forced to take measurement on his own. He had to go to the mandir but went blindfolded to avoid seeing Vitthal


In the Mandir, when blindfolded Narhari touched Vitthal, he felt as if he was touching Shiva with matted hair, the moon, snake in His neck and Trishul in His hand. Ecstatic with joy, he removed the blindfold to see Shiva but he found the murti of Vitthal with Rukmini there.


He realised the truth that there was no difference between Vitthal and Shiva. Narhari at once fell at the feet of Panduranga. He then took the measurement of the waist of Vitthal and this time the ornament fit the Murti perfectly.

Narayan Hari🙏🏻
ALL
Kevin Murphy
Kevin Murphy
@kwmurphy
Okay look - I didn’t grow up with comic books. But I read stacks of science fiction digests and I kit-bashed model cars into fantasy rods, and just tried to maintain a low profile until I could get out of the house. So you could say I’m a distant cousin of the comic book fan. /1

And sometimes one’s childhood passion follows them into adulthood, sometimes not, sometimes as an adult one finds a passion they never had as a child and embraces it. For me, that must include getting involved with a puppet show at the age of thirty. /2

So who’s to say whose passion’s legitimate and whose is bogus? Nobody. Someone might indict your passion but they have no ground to stand on and should be dismissed out of hand. /3

Maybe they’re envious that you have a passion, maybe they think that their passion is cooler than yours, or maybe they’re just insecure, who knows. Doesn’t matter. /4

What matters is that if something gives you joy, and in the process doesn’t hurt others, then by all means follow it. It’s how we explore our secret hopes, our shadow sides, our inner character. /5
CULTURE


Category Partner: Enkryptopedia