BC TRADING
Saved by @ThomassRichards

A couple days back, I wrote up my best understanding of what happened with /r/wallstreetbets and meme stocks like Gamestop, trying to show how all the different, seemingly contradictory takes on the underlying financial stuff could all be true.

https://t.co/xWzre4r0Yj

1/

 In the days since, a new series of contradictory takes has emerged, these ones disputing the meaning of this bizarre financial spectacle, and likewise what response, if any is warranted as it unfurls.

2/
I think that all of these takes can also be true, and as with the trading itself, reconciling them requires that we widen the frame.

Let's start with Jimmy Carter.

3/
In 1978, Carter's IRS created the 401(k), a tax-sheltered account for people who wanted to gamble on stocks to fund their retirement.

That was a fringe proposition at best.

4/
The normal retirement system was a "defined benefits" pension where your employer guaranteed you a certain monthly percentage of your salary from retirement to death.

The vast majority of Americans wisely prefered a guaranteed payout to a tax-advantaged gambling account.

5/
Obviously, right? On the one hand, you have the guarantee of a pension (maybe even inflation-indexed); on the other, you have a bunch of bets, that, if they go wrong, leave you literally homeless and starving.

6/
When gamblers remortgage the family home and cash in the kids' college funds to play the tables, we consider them to have a mental illness, a pathological condition that harms them and the people around them.

7/
Giving up a defined benefits pension in favor of a 401k is just the same kind of bet - staking all the money that will support you when you exit the workforce on the movement of stocks and bonds.

Who would do that voluntarily?

8/
Pretty much no one. But the transition from defined benefits to 401k was not voluntary. Finance ghouls like Ethan Lipsig wrote memos to major employers like Hughes Aircraft showing them how they could ditch their pension obligations by moving workers to 401ks.

9/
In the 80s, Reagan created a bunch of legal tools that allowed employers to coerce their workforces into giving up the security of a pension and force them into gambling their salaries on the prayer of a win in the markets.

10/
This was insanely, amazingly great for the finance sector, in three ways:

I. It made companies more profitable. Guaranteeing that the workers whose labor made your company viable wouldn't spend their dotage starving and homeless is expensive.

11/
Helping fund wagers on shares is much cheaper. The finance sector represented the major shareholders of the companies that transitioned to 401ks. The savings were transferred to these shareholders and the finance sector got commissions.

12/
What's more, this temporary inflation of share prices disguised what was going on with the pension switcheroo: workers' defined benefits pensions were liquidated and turned into stocks, just as stocks were going up because their pensions had been liquidated!

13/
Their legs had been amputated out from under them, but so subtly that they didn't yet feel the pain - and now their bosses cooked their legs and snuck them into their dinner, and everyone marveled at how full they felt after that hearty, meaty meal.

14/
II. 401ks brought a lot of suckers to the table. The market was - and is - dominated by "sophisticated investors," AKA predators, who knew all the ways to fleece the rubes who had no idea how any of this worked.

15/
The predatory nature of finance only increased over time. Hedge funds, for example, exist to find unethical practices that are legal (thanks to loopholes in the rules) and exploit them until they are illegal.

16/
III. 401ks created a political force outside the finance sector that would lobby on its behalf. Transforming America into a nation of stockholders meant that workers had to choose between supporting rules that protected their jobs and rules that protected their retirement.

17/
For your pension account to grow, you had to support policies that permitted finance ghouls to offshore your job, or misclassify you as a contractor, or eliminate the safety rules that prevented you from being maimed, or take away your right to sue for compensation.

18/
Every time there's a particularly ghastly bankruptcy driven by PE or hedge funds - Toys R Us, Sears, etc - it emerges that at least some of that money is coming out of a union pension fund.

19/
That's marketization - turning the once obscure, boring business of market-based capital allocation into a matter of import to everyday people.

Marketization begat financialization.

20/
While marketization is primarily about capital allocation (who gets what money), financialization is about bets. Sometimes those bets are about things - businesses, houses, coal and timber - but things are limited. Mostly the financial market consists of bets on other bets.

21/
Bets are infinite. Every time you make a bet, you create inventory for a market in a bet on the outcome of your bet. And that's inventory for a new market: bets on the outcomes of bets on the outcomes of bets.

It's called Wall Street Bets for a reason.

22/
Bets need referees, someone who decides who the winner is. In sports, it's a major scandal if a referee is caught wagering on one of the teams in a match. In the financial markets, it's the norm - referees that lay wagers on the outcome of the contest they're overseeing.

23/
Let's take stock:

* Workers are forced to play the casino, and if their bets fail, they spend their old ages homeless and starving;

* The vast majority of casino games are wholly abstract - bets on bets on bets - and require layers of refs;

* the refs are all crooked.

24/
Every couple of years, we have a massive, systemic financial crisis, and every time that happens, the finance sector lobbies for a no-strings-attached bailout, abetted by suckers who hate the finance sector but fear starving in their old age.

25/
We're about to be engulfed in the second-largest crisis of our lifetime - the reckoning from trillions in capital market gains propped up by the Trump administration's policy of buying all corporate debt as a covid stimulus.

https://t.co/tNFjGSD95v

26/
(the largest crisis of our lifetimes is a few years off, as the climate emergency piles losses on losses, stranding tens of trillions in assets, from fossil fuels to obsolete gas-stations to literally underwater coastal real-estate to whole towns incinerated by wildfires)

27/
That's where we're at: a crooked casino that we've trusted our futures too, a crisis on the horizon, and a bunch meme-stock "players" who have thrown the normal weirdness of the market into stark relief through a spectacular stunt.

28/
A lot of people are angry at Robinhood, the stock-trading platform at the center of all this. Robinhood froze trading on meme stocks, and has only allowed it to come back in a useless, performative trickle that is seemingly calculated to prevent more meme-stock gamesmanship.

29/
Is Robinhood just another crooked ref? Yes…and no. The meme stock run upset the stable cheaters' equilibrium whereby cheating never escalated to the point where the game just collapsed.

For example, the total short position on Gamestop exceeds its total stock issuance.

30/
Translation: there were more Gamestop shares promised between bettors than exist. When the game stops, all those promises come due, and they literally can't be paid off because there aren't enough tokens in circulation to settle all the debts.

31/
Robinhood halted trading in part because the big fish upstream of Robinhood also halted trading, because they have even more at risk than Robinhood does if the game collapses - they the refs for MANY players, all the same size as Robinhood or larger.

https://t.co/6eSpIv9pup

32/
But remember, the refs are cheating. And they are both downstream and upstream from other games in which the refs are also cheating.

33/
And the games, as a whole, encompass our economy, including the solvency of the "real economy" (the people who make masks, deliver groceries and drive ambulances), and whether you spend your old age homeless and starving.

34/
So the people who say, "Don't blame Robinhood, they didn't halt trading to help billionaires, they halted trading to prevent the game from collapsing are right."

But they're not the only ones who are right.

35/
Also, there's the people who say that meme stocks aren't making money for little guys at the expense of the big guys. They're right too.

First, because these stocks will all need to be converted to cash, and that means selling them.

https://t.co/YcGLFT3stc

36/
When the selloff starts, the price will plunge, because even if the stock was undervalued before, it's certainly overvalued now. Every bubble produces wealth for its early bettors who sell out to later players who lose everything when they can't find a sucker later on.

37/
From Beanie Babies to subprime, bubbles burst and leave suckers holding the bag. If you just heard about meme stocks last week, you're too late to make money off of them.

38/
There's another version of the "this isn't little guys, it's big whales" that's ALSO true: the main beneficiary of the meme stock runs is giant funds who magnified and the bets from r/wallstreetbets and got out smart and fast.

https://t.co/biDxNTjerI

39/
So given all this, what can we make of calls (from parties as varied as @AOC and @tedcruz) to investigate Robinhood and other retail brokerages to see whether they're honest refs, or in the tank for billionaires?

40/
At @nakedcapitalism, @yvessmith calls this a "fatuous uproar," saying that the Senate has more important things to do during the racing-out-of-control pandemic than to investigate a literal penny-ante grift.

https://t.co/eDrQxtMoVu

41/
Do we really care who the winner is in "a beauty contest between Cinderella’s ugly sisters" ("clueless new gen day traders versus clumsy shorts")?

Smith is right too.

42/
A speculator-v-speculator contest that falls apart when the crooked ref halts play to prevent collapse - who cares who "wins?"

But here's how they can all be right - the "who cares" and the "goliath v goliath" and the "bubble" and the "Robinhood is a plutes' honeypot."

43/
IF there's hearings, and IF those hearings expose the absurdity and corruption of the system, THEN there is a chance to build the political will to make real, systemic changes when the crisis comes.

44/
And there's a real crisis coming: two, in fact. The covid junk bond financial crisis, which is due very soon, and the climate crisis stranded asset emergencies, which will unroll with increased tempo and intensity for decades to come.

45/
The half-century cycle of "addressing" finance crises by increasing financialization MUST stop.

If the meme stock spectacle gets us to pay attention to hearings that reveal the irredeemable rot of the system, then it's a unique chance to spread REAL "financial literacy."

46/
And that literacy is the necessary (but insufficient) precursor to taking action when the time comes - and the time is certainly coming soon.

47/
If you'd like to link to a version of this essay as a blog post on a site with no ads, trackers, or surveillance, here's a permalink on Pluralistic:

https://t.co/M8KOqi1GX8

eof/

More from Cory Doctorow #BLM

Cory Doctorow #BLM
Cory Doctorow #BLM
@doctorow
There are lots of problems with ad-tech:

* being spied on all the time means that the people of the 21st century are less able to be their authentic selves;

* any data that is collected and retained will eventually breach, creating untold harms;

1/


* data-collection enables for discriminatory business practices ("digital redlining");

* the huge, tangled hairball of adtech companies siphons lots (maybe even most) of the money that should go creators and media orgs; and

2/

* anti-adblock demands browsers and devices that thwart their owners' wishes, a capability that can be exploited for even more nefarious purposes;

That's all terrible, but it's also IRONIC, since it appears that, in addition to everything else, ad-tech is a fraud, a bezzle.

3/

Bezzle was John Kenneth Galbraith's term for "the magic interval when a confidence trickster knows he has the money he has appropriated but the victim does not yet understand that he has lost it." That is, a rotten log that has yet to be turned over.

4/

Bezzles unwind slowly, then all at once. We've had some important peeks under ad-tech's rotten log, and they're increasing in both intensity and velocity. If you follow @Chronotope, you've had a front-row seat to the
INTERNET
Cory Doctorow
Cory Doctorow
@doctorow
It's been eight years since @aaronsw took his own life. Aaron had been charged with 13 felonies under the Computer Fraud and Abuse Act (#CFAA) for violating the terms of service on the @JSTOR database of scholarly articles.

1/


Prosecutors Stephen Heymann and Carmen Ortiz didn't dispute that Aaron was allowed to access the articles he retrieved. Rather, they said that the WAY he accessed them (using a script instead of clicking on links) was a terms-of-service violation and hence a crime.

2/

In other words: any business could conjure a felony out of thin air by making you click through an unreadable garbage-novella of legalese proscribing the use of a service they granted you access to. Violate any of those terms and you face a prison sentence.

3/

This isn't law as we know it, it's Felony Contempt of Business Model, and the most alarming thing was that this interpretation of the CFAA wasn't completely ridiculous, given how badly drafted that law is.

4/

Ronald Reagan signed CFAA into law. Fed prosecutors had been seeking broad authority to punish "hacking" and had drawn up an absurdly broad definition of cybercrime that would give them latitude to go after anyone they didn't like.

5/
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Cory Doctorow #BLM
Cory Doctorow #BLM
@doctorow
Despite the massive triumphs of the world's largest corporations and most rapacious billionaires during the covid crisis, neoliberalism is in ideological retreat: more people are more critical of the idea that "free markets" can solve big problems than at any time in my life.

1/


The Democratic nomination race was a fight between the neoliberal wing of the party and the Democratic Socialists, with the candidates representing a spectrum between those two sides (and the odd outlier on either side).

2/

Supposedly, the party grandees brokered peace between the two main factions, but the left is rightfully suspicious about whether Biden - and Republicans-who-sit-as-Dems like Joe Manchin - will deliver anything beyond symbolic gestures.

3/

One bright spot: Bernie Sanders is finally chairing the Senate Budget Committee, giving him enormous power over muscular covid relief packages, Medicare expansion, and rolling back Trump and Bush tax-cuts on the

This is where Sanders' long experience in the Senate, and his virtuoso work using its procedures to advance his position, will serve him well. As we saw with McConnell, the ability to wield procedure is a powerful asset in getting stuff done.

5/
POLITICS
Cory Doctorow #BLM
Cory Doctorow #BLM
@doctorow
The pandemic has afforded all of us a refresher course on the five stages of grief, a theoretical and controversial framework for describing how people cope with tragedy: denial, anger, bargaining, depression and acceptance.

https://t.co/nqPmjCvyab

1/


A far slower-moving unfolding of these stages can be seen in the reactions of the super-wealthy to the breakdown in neoliberal orthodoxy, the tale that says that inequality results from meritocracy, and makes us all better

Denial came out in the "rationalist" view: the world is better off than ever - richer, less violent, healthier, and any discontent you feel with your plummeting fortunes and the contracting possibilities for your kids is just your tunnel vision. Lack of perspective.

3/

But the Great Financial Crisis and Occupy triggered the anger of the elites: violent suppression of protests, the "Doom Boom" in new luxury bunkers, Howard Schultz's insistence that "billionaire" is a slur (he says we should call him a "person of wealth").

4/

The pandemic - and the "K-shaped recovery"- has revealed the existential threat inequality poses for our species, between price-gouging, fraud, profiteering, flouting health directives, and coercing the poor and vulnerable into risking their lives to keep the economy afloat.

5/
SOCIETY
Cory Doctorow #BLM
Cory Doctorow #BLM
@doctorow
Today's Twitter threads (a Twitter thread).

Inside: Thinking through Mitch McConnell's plea for comity; Further, on Mitch McConnell and comity; Understanding the aftermath of r/wallstreetbets; and more!

Archived at: https://t.co/1rRmrJa4FK

#Pluralistic

1/


Thinking through Mitch McConnell's plea for comity: A thoughtful analysis.

https://t.co/2T74ykb3Ws

2/


Further, on Mitch McConnell and comity: I thought about it some more.

https://t.co/mTQ225Lr3X

3/


Understanding the aftermath of r/wallstreetbets: Even if there's no angels, there's still a path to glory.

https://t.co/x7BaqUQ0hj

4/


#10yrsago Morrow’s Diviner’s Tale is a tight, literary ghost story https://t.co/XFW0AGFwhI

#10yrsago ATM skimmer that doesn’t require any modifications to the ATM
TRADING

More from Trading

Trader knight
Trader knight
@Traderknight007
How position sizing can affect your trading performance-

Assuming that you are trading a Trend-following system with Big RR and low win-rate.

For example, assume that you risk one percent per trade on a 100,000 account
and you have 20 straight losses.

That one percent is of your remaining equity and at the end of 20 losses, you would be down to 81,790.60.

Now if you got a 30R winner and you are risking one percent of your balance of 81,790.60, your new equity would be 106,327.9,


You’ve had 20 losses and one winner though you are still up 10Rplus your equity is up by 6.3R percent.

Now, let’s say you risk five percent per trade on your balance. At the end of 20 straight losses, you would be down to 35,772.89 or down 64 percent.


If you risk five percent on this amount and get a 30R winner, you would be up to 89,621.48. You are up 10R, but because of your position sizing, your equity is still down over 10 percent.

#positionsizing
#Trading
#nifty50

This is why position sizing is the most important factor in trading if you get it right and you have an edge, you will do good.

Thanks for reading till here.
@AnandableAnand @jitendrajain @quatltd @sohamtweet
TRADING
Prashant Shah
Prashant Shah
@Prashantshah267
Thread: Parabolic SAR Indicator

Parabolic SAR (PSAR) indicator was developed by J. Welles Wilder.

#PSAR #Indicators #Definedge


The calculation of this indicator is a bit complex, but the concept is extremely useful. I will try to simplify it and explain the logic. I will briefly explain the concept, calculation and reading.

Let us think about creating an indicator that shows the trend.

Using the indicator, we can identify & ride the trend using the trailing stop-loss method.

For trailing the stop in uptrend, indicator needs to be placed below the candle. Similarly, it should be placed above the candle for trailing in a downtrend. We will plot it using ‘dots’.


So, the indicator & stop-loss will be rising in uptrend & falling in downtrend.

Let us define the trend as:

If Low of the candle > Stop-loss level in bull market = Trend remains bullish.

If High of the candle < Stop-loss level in bear market = Trend is bearish

Imagine you are driving a car on highway; you would like to accelerate if the road is clear. You will slow down if the road is bumpy.
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Meet Shah
Meet Shah
@ms89_meet
Thread on "The Final Checklist"
by Peter Lynch.

~ Ideas can come from anywhere - Peter Lynch.


~ If you can't find any companies that you think are attractive, put your money in the bank until you discover some - Peter Lynch.


~ All you need for a lifetime of successful investing is a few big winners, and the pluses from those will overwhelm the minuses from the stocks that don’t work out - Peter Lynch.


~ Time is on your side when you own shares of superior companies - Peter Lynch.
TRADING
Aditya Trivedi
Aditya Trivedi
@itsAdityaT
Most of the successful traders here are option sellers.

Ever wondered why?

Why we have chosen option selling?

Find our below

1: Being wrong and still making money.

We as option sellers can be wrong with our market view and still end up making money because of the power of theta decay and adjustments to some extent.

Adjustments work better as get closer to expiry since decay is the highest.

2: Theta decay

The biggest reason and one of the prime reasons is the theta decay.

Option sellers always have an advantage because the as time passes, the option premium falls even if the underlying instrument doesn't move.

3:Playing directional view

Option selling also enables us to take a directional view. In fact, directional view along with theta decay makes it a solid combination.

Debit spreads and credit spreads works great for a directional view.

4: Playing Neutral view

We can make money in option selling even if the market doesn't move as the otm options will go to 0 with the help of theta decay. It's the most fascinating thing.

This is what attracted many into option selling.
TRADING
Aditya Todmal
Aditya Todmal
@AdityaTodmal
12 TRADING SETUPS used by professional traders:🧵

Collaborated with @niki_poojary

Here's what you'll learn in this thread:

1. Capture Overnight Theta Decay
2. Trading Opening Range Breakouts
3. Reversal Trading Setups
4. Selling strangles and straddles in Bank Nifty
6. NR4 + IB
7. NR 21-Vwap Strategy

Let's dive in ↓

1/ STBT option Selling (Positional Setup):

The setup uses price action to sell options for overnight theta decay.

Check Bank Nifty at 3:15 everyday.

Sell directional credit spreads with capped


@jigspatel1988 2/ Selling Strangles in Bank Nifty based on Open Interest Data

Don't trade till 9:45 Am.

Identify the highest OI on puts and calls.

Check combined premium and put a stop on individual


@jigspatel1988 3/ Open Drive (Intraday)

This is an opening range breakout setup with a few conditions.

To be used when the market opens above yesterday's day high

or Below yesterday's day's
OPTIONSLEARNINGS , TRADING , ALL

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Aneesh Philomina Antony
Aneesh Philomina Anton...
@ProdigalTrader
If u are looking to enter a scrip just before the breakout
what would u look for?
How would u identify scrips just before breakout?

Here are a few pointers
Carefully understand the them and use at ur own discretion
(All comments r compiled from a question i posed)

1/23

Price is testing the same resistance repeatedly since long.
But now in recent times it's forming multiple candles near the same resistance with low volume.
Observe it and see for opposite move.
As soon as u get a positive candle, get in to it.

2/23

1. Volume buildup (vol > when resistance point created) along with, increase in OI, increase in delivery % on HTF
2. On LTF, price stalling around breakout area for at least 1-2hr.
3. No major events.

3/23

Stock reaching breakout LVL with HL-HH
Contraction of price and volume near it especially near 20 days ma.
If there is any breach of the latest HL it should be followed by a bullish candle with good volume.
Left side of the chart has a rally with a very steep slope of ma.

4/23

Number of wide range green bars with high volumes.
If stock is at its ATH then it adds more conviction bcz there wont b supply after that point

Consolidation below the resistance, volume of the candles & strong bullish candle closing at near highs just below the resistance

5/23
TRADING , ALL
k\u0101rthik \u0b95\u0bbe\u0bb0\u0bcd\u0ba4\u0bcd\u0ba4\u0bbf\u0b95\u0bcd \u0915\u093e\u0930\u094d\u0924\u093f\u0915 \U0001f1ee\U0001f1f3\U0001f1ee\U0001f1f3\U0001f1ee\U0001f1f3 | Sanatani
kārthik கார்த்திக் कार...
@almightykarthik
Hello Dear Tweeples!

It’s Siddhars time of the week! Last week I shared story of Guru (Machamuni or Yogi Matsyendranath), this week I bring you information on his Shishya.

#Thread on Gorakanathar Siddhar.

@LostTemple7


His origin story is interesting, though I couldn’t verify it’s authenticity, so not sharing the story here. He’s shishya of Machamuni Siddhar and also learnt from Agasthiya Siddhar.

@HelloNNewman @RajiIndustani @Kishoreciyer1

Unlike other Siddhars, he is depicted as either with a Tiger or seated & wearing Tiger skin. While I couldn’t find any explanation for this. My interpretation is as follows:

Tiger is a predator that lurks around and attacks unexpectedly.


Our 5 indriyas and 5 vikitis also similar to Tiger, they lurk around and attacks our thoughts when we’re least expecting. Gorakkar is said to have mastered these aspects, thus to denote this, he shown with Tiger.

@Itishree001 @VarierSangitha @jananisampath

Gorakanathar or Gorakshnath (as he’s known in the Nath Sampraday) is celebrated Guru in both Northern and Southern part of India. He’s one of the NavNath in Nath Sampraday and also 18 Siddhars of Tamil tradition. During his life, he’s travelled Indian subcontinent extensively +
RELIGION , ALL
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Emma Hilton
Emma Hilton
@FondOfBeetles
This is Kuinini ‘Nini’ Manumua, the woman who was ultimately displaced by inclusion of Laurel Hubbard.

She’s 21, and it would have been her first Olympics.
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Queen Preshiii
Queen Preshiii
@preshdeyforyou
Men actually cum faster when having sex with someone they love

Haha y'all fw this tweet very well 😀

So why we're here lemme show you guys WHAT IMPRESSES A MAN MOST IN BED

Sweetie I wanna remind you that every Good sex😍 is based on mutual respect and love❤, so make sure that the guy you’re fucking is worthy of you.

. and never waste effort on a guy who isn't worth it. But as long as you’re convinced of the hero-status of this guy, your endeavours will never be wasted❤.

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Mitesh Patel
Mitesh Patel
@Mitesh_Engr
How to sell option?
Here let me explain through simple math.
Say BN at 30000
30000 straddle trading at combine premium 800 ( based on current volatility)
Put at 400
Call at 400
You don’t know direction. Sold both.

If move will not come than both will decrease gradually.

At day end it will come down to 720-740 if move will not come. Difference is your profit.

Now case 2:
Move started.
At one points combine premium will start increasing.
Say 810.
Exit immediately. No need to do adjustment.
Let market settle.

Sell again straddle once market settle.
Now repeat same thing.

Straddle selling webinar over.
Good luck.

One can keep SL 550 for both strike to escape from sudden movement.
OPTIONSLEARNING , MITESHOPTIONS


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