BC TRADERLION
Saved by @SeekerHari

What is a True Market Leader / TML (Thread)

(And how to find them)

 In one sentence a TML is an institutional quality stock in a leading industry group with superior fundamentals and technicals

These are monster stocks which over the course of weeks and months increase +100% to +5,000%
TMLs are popular with traders/investors whose methodology is based on the CANSLIM system developed by William O'Neil.

He called them Model Book Stocks. Huge winners worth studying to identify common characteristics that they all share
O'Neil studied over 1000 model book stocks going back to the 1880s.

Many are shown and discussed in these must read books

How To Make Money in Stocks, O"Neil
https://t.co/S2sShZedUm

Monster Stocks, John Boik @monsterstocks1 https://t.co/Cw1O9ZazGO

https://t.co/1iAGYk6Brs
A Few Examples courtesy of @SystematiCK_

Pic N Save 1979

https://t.co/d03nEEF4Eq
Netflix 2009

https://t.co/Q7hI22VoMT
Home Depot 1982

https://t.co/hd5c3rm0Si
So what are the Fundamental characteristics of a TML?

Superior:

Quarterly Sales Growth > 25% YoY
Quarterly Earnings Growth > 25% YoY
Pre+After Tax Margins >20% Recent Quarters
ROE >17%
Annual Earnings Ests for the next year > 25%

Story- A new and innovative product or service
Not every TML will have all of these criteria, but in general their record should be outstanding with regards to most of them.

The higher these values the better. Earnings and Sales growth over 100% QoQ is ideal. Annual Estimates for next year over 100% would be exceptional
TMLs are also often in the Top 20 Industry groups at the times of their runs.

The TML is the leader of an overall top group which is riding the tailwinds of changing environments.

Recent examples $SE $SHOP $AMZN Retail-Internet
$TSLA $NIO Electric Vehicles (Auto Manufacturers)
Additionally base liquidity is required for these stocks to be institutional quality.

Dollar Volume > $30 Million is essential and most should have DV much higher than that

@Upticken Likes greater than $100 Million
Accumulation by big hedge funds and mutual funds like Fidelity Contrafund are what move the markets. They won't touch a promising stock unless it has liquidity.
Now for Technical Characteristics of TMLs:

Above a Rising 30 Week Moving Average
Breaking out of a Stage 1 or Stage 2 Base
Trending above Key Moving Averages (10, 21ema, 50sma)
Volume and Price contractions within bases
Up/Down Vol> 1.2
Huge gaps up on volume after Earning Beat
And most importantly they must be showing Relative Strength, meaning they are outperforming the vast majority of stocks in the market.

This. is. vital.

RS Rating over 97 is ideal
During corrections and overall market weakness they should be near all time highs, above their longer term moving averages

They should be standing out like a sore thumb.

@duckman1717 compiled a great resource for relative strength clues

https://t.co/zy3RUEYF9B
During Market Uptrends they should be trending above the shorter term moving averages, forming sideways shelfs during small pullbacks and then breaking out again.

Most stay above their 50 SMAs and even 21 emas for extended periods of time.
So how to scan for them.

Use @MarketSmith, the IBD Stock Screener, Finviz, or another screener

and screen for the fundamental criteria mentioned above
combined with the stock over the 200+50 SMA
It's helpful to have multiple screens splitting up the criteria for instance one scan for the earnings and one for sales.
On Fintwit we also have great traders who share their screens + focus lists.

@PatternProfits
@TMLTrader
@dennisc230
@alphacharts365

are a few who help keep me focused on TMLs
Along with the key books mentioned previously

The Lifecycle Trade by

@EBoboch
@KGD_Investor
@EricKrull1
@Top_Dog_102

Is a great resource which studied recent IPO super growth stocks and compared different rule sets to trade them

https://t.co/Ka6g7ND4uU
And Finally here is a good list of recent TMLs.

Study their charts, where you would have entered and exited given your rules

$LVGO 2020
$TSLA 2019, 2020
$DOCU 2020
$FSLY 2020
$PTON 2020
$SHOP Any recent year
$AMD 2018
$ZM 2020

More from Richard Moglen 📽️🦁🚢

Richard Moglen \U0001f4fd\ufe0f\U0001f981\U0001f6a2
Richard Moglen 📽️🦁🚢...
@RichardMoglen
What is an Optimal Buy Point? (thread)

Your results as a trader/investor boil down to three statistics

Average Gain - Average % gain on winning Trades
Average Loss -Average % gain on losing Trades
Batting Average - % of trades that are gains

Like in baseball, you can find incredible success in the stock market winning only a handful of times out of ten. In fact a system that is profitable or break even with only a 30-50% BA is more robust and consistent

To establish such as system you need to manage the risk reward relationship (Average gain/Average Loss) so that you can survive winning only 30% of the time.

(I promise this is getting to optimal buy points shortly)

You should shoot for at least a 2:1 gain/loss ratio. 3:1 is even better.

With a 2:1 ratio you can loss 2/3 of the time and break even. With a 3:1 ratio you can lose 75% of the time
TRADERLION
Richard Moglen \U0001f4fd\ufe0f\U0001f981\U0001f6a2
Richard Moglen 📽️🦁🚢...
@RichardMoglen
“Sudden rises in price and volume, out of the ordinary relative strength, and movement against the general market trend are all giveaway signals which reveal the presence of a stock about to take off”

Nicolas Darvas
SCREENERS
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Richard Moglen \U0001f4fd\ufe0f\U0001f6a2\U0001f981
Richard Moglen 📽️🚢🦁...
@RichardMoglen
In the fall of 2018, I signed up for a class called "Introduction to the Stock Market and Technical Analysis" taught by Dr. Eric Wish

This class changed my life.

Here are 10 Lessons Dr. Wish taught me from his over 50 Years of Trading.

(Thread)

Before this class I had absolutely no knowledge about investing, trading, or how to read a stock chart

Today, trading & studying the commonalities between the greatest performing stocks is my passion, and what I’ve spent the past 1000+ days focused on

Now onto the first lesson

Financial Literacy

The first lesson Dr. Wish taught me was the importance of overall financial literacy.

Roth IRAs, interest rates, budgeting, building credit the right way.

You need to master money management before thinking moving on to trading/investing.

Overall Strategy

Throughout the class, Dr. Wish repeated his trading mantra.

As you gain trading knowledge and experience, you'll appreciate the simplicity and depth of this one sentence:


Determine the Market Trend

The vast majority of stocks follow the overall trend of the market. This is why the mantra begins with “In a Rising Market”

"At least 50% of the whole game is the general market."

-William O'Neil
TRADERLION , MARKET TREND
Richard Moglen \U0001f4fd\ufe0f\U0001f981\U0001f6a2
Richard Moglen 📽️🦁🚢...
@RichardMoglen
5 Ways Weekly Charts can help your Trading & Investing

📈📉 (Thread)

Weekly charts are a powerful timeframe, and regardless of your style, they can help you gain perspective on a particular setup and identify its potential

Using higher timeframes slows the action down and allows you to calmly analyze price and volume.

This will lead to better decision making.

For investors learning to analyze weekly charts and their trends can only complement your fundamental analysis.

For traders they are the "prevailing wind" and trading with this weekly trend will increase probabilities and help you remember to focus on larger patterns

1⃣ Weekly Charts show the True Trend of a Stock

Weekly charts eliminate a lot of the back and forth that occurs intraday and on daily charts. What is left is often a clear picture of the trend of a stock.

⬆️ Trending Up
↔️ Basing
⬇️ Trending Down
TRADERLION
Richard Moglen \U0001f4fd\ufe0f\U0001f981\U0001f6a2
Richard Moglen 📽️🦁🚢...
@RichardMoglen
An Introduction to Price and Volume Action (thread)

An understanding of price and volume action is essential for judging supply and demand characteristics. This allows you to determine whether a stock is under accumulation or distribution and find proper buy and sell points

This thread is not about memorizing candlestick patterns, but instead understanding how supply and demand create patterns over and over again. The Stock Market is an auction, and the large buyers and sellers leave clues for us to find within price and volume.

Let’s start with one price bar. I personally use OHLC charts but feel free to use what makes sense to you, they each present the same information. A single bar can represent a minute, 15 minutes, a day, or a year. The higher the timeframe the more meaningful the price move.


I view each bar as a match of tug of war between the buyers and the sellers. Buying pressure tries to pull the stock price up while selling pressure tries to pull it down. The winner is reflected in the closing range.
TRADERLION

More from Traderlion

Richard Moglen \U0001f4fd\ufe0f\U0001f981\U0001f6a2
Richard Moglen 📽️🦁🚢...
@RichardMoglen
An Introduction to Price and Volume Action (thread)

An understanding of price and volume action is essential for judging supply and demand characteristics. This allows you to determine whether a stock is under accumulation or distribution and find proper buy and sell points

This thread is not about memorizing candlestick patterns, but instead understanding how supply and demand create patterns over and over again. The Stock Market is an auction, and the large buyers and sellers leave clues for us to find within price and volume.

Let’s start with one price bar. I personally use OHLC charts but feel free to use what makes sense to you, they each present the same information. A single bar can represent a minute, 15 minutes, a day, or a year. The higher the timeframe the more meaningful the price move.


I view each bar as a match of tug of war between the buyers and the sellers. Buying pressure tries to pull the stock price up while selling pressure tries to pull it down. The winner is reflected in the closing range.
TRADERLION
Richard Moglen \U0001f4fd\ufe0f\U0001f981\U0001f6a2
Richard Moglen 📽️🦁🚢...
@RichardMoglen
What is Relative Strength (RS) and how to identify it (Thread)

Focusing on stocks exhibiting strong Relative Strength is one of the keys to achieving superior returns. This is one of the core ideas of #CANSLIM

In one sentence showing RS means outperforming other stocks both during market uptrends and downtrends.

In this thread we will cover examples, how to spot it, and how to use it to make sure you are in the top stocks.

If you want to outperform the indexes, logic says you have to be invested in stocks doing the same.

First Some Basic Terminology:

RS Rating: @IBDinvestors Proprietary measure of RS scored 1-99. Stocks with an RS rating of 80 have outperformed 80% of stocks over the past year.

RS Line: The Line plotted by dividing each day’s stock price/ price of the SPX.


The value of the RS line itself does not mean anything, but the trend of this line is very important.

-Note RSI (Relative strength index) is something completely unrelated to the concept of this thread.
TRADERLION
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Richard Moglen \U0001f4fd\ufe0f\U0001f6a2\U0001f981
Richard Moglen 📽️🚢🦁...
@RichardMoglen
In the fall of 2018, I signed up for a class called "Introduction to the Stock Market and Technical Analysis" taught by Dr. Eric Wish

This class changed my life.

Here are 10 Lessons Dr. Wish taught me from his over 50 Years of Trading.

(Thread)

Before this class I had absolutely no knowledge about investing, trading, or how to read a stock chart

Today, trading & studying the commonalities between the greatest performing stocks is my passion, and what I’ve spent the past 1000+ days focused on

Now onto the first lesson

Financial Literacy

The first lesson Dr. Wish taught me was the importance of overall financial literacy.

Roth IRAs, interest rates, budgeting, building credit the right way.

You need to master money management before thinking moving on to trading/investing.

Overall Strategy

Throughout the class, Dr. Wish repeated his trading mantra.

As you gain trading knowledge and experience, you'll appreciate the simplicity and depth of this one sentence:


Determine the Market Trend

The vast majority of stocks follow the overall trend of the market. This is why the mantra begins with “In a Rising Market”

"At least 50% of the whole game is the general market."

-William O'Neil
TRADERLION , MARKET TREND
TraderLion \U0001f981
TraderLion 🦁
@TraderLion_
How Stage Analysis can improve your Trading & Investing 📈📉

Thread🧵

👇

Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis offers traders a powerful methodology to identify trends in the markets while following strict risk management principles.

1/


First, let's review who Stan Weinstein is and his contributions to the market.

Weinstein is a veteran technical trader who has over 50 years of experience and now works as an advisor for institutional investors.

2/

Stan is well known for authoring "Secrets for Profiting in Bull & Bear Markets" which you can find at the link below.

This book is incredibly well written and gets into the nitty-gritty of his processes in the

So, what is Stage Analysis?

Stage Analysis is used to identify the longer-term trend of a stock or index. There are 4 different stages 👇

The Basing Area, Advancing Phase, The Top Area, and Declining Phase.

4/
TRADERLION
TraderLion
TraderLion
@TraderLion_
How to identify the next Market Leaders (Thread)

After a basing/corrective period in the market, new merchandise will start to emerge and show itself as the market is setting up for another uptrend.

Some leaders from the previous run may continue their moves, but often it's the new leaders which will provide the most alpha.

So keep an open mind and search for the stocks that are standing out from the crowd with the strongest combination of superior price + volume action and fundamentals.

Here is how to find these next leaders:

First, market leaders by definition lead the market. They will often be making new price and relative strength highs as the market starts moving up from a potential bottom.

Keep an eye on Relative Strength Lines especially. A Relative Strength New High Before Price is a key Leadership Blueprint. For instance, $TSLA showed this characteristic before advancing 350% in 2020

The RS Line is calculated by the Price of the stock/ SPX
ALL , TRADERLION

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In regards to the #CapitolCoup, I’m in a unique position. I monitored forums ahead of time and then was present for the coup itself.

These are my observations based on what I saw and the evidence that’s been collected so far. I reserve the right to adjust my analysis as needed.

Let’s talk about the organization of the coup first. Seeing some people insist that the coup must have been highly planned and coordinated.

Yes and no. This was a #StochasticCoup. We’ll see little evidence of direct communication between Trump and the insurrectionists.

Within the insurrectionists, there was not one group that executed the storming of the Capitol.

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Your.

Game.

You just might be too stupid to be following me.

The then-Deputy Director of the FBI get's caught targeting @GenFlynn with an illegal leak so he can 'investigated' by Peter Strzok?

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