I hate to correct @elonmusk, but his assertion that it takes 20 years to replace the vehicle fleet is wrong. This thread tries to describe why. 1/

His 20 year replacement timeline is based in the normal rate of car manufacturing/car retirering and total global fleet size. Both of these will be disrupted 2/
Whilst I don't expect total car manufacturing rate to increase much, with the introduction of cheap autonomous taxis networks, the number of cars being retired will increase very fast especially with people living with urban settings where these networks will become ubiquitous 3/
And in the more rural / commuter belt 2 car families will become 1 autonomous car families.
This will drasticaly decrease the total size of the global car fleet as the rate of cars retirering will be at least twice the size of the cars being retired 4/
As time progresses, legislation increasing taxes on polluting cars (ICE) and restrictions on where those cars can travel to will make them increasingly stranded/decreasing value assets on a household and further increase the retirering rate of ICE vehicles 5/
Finaly, when 100% of cars being manufactured are electric, with every passing year, the economics of gas pumps become unviable and these start to close/being repurposed. As fuel stations close they scarcity will mirror today's pain points of lack of charging infrastructure 6/
And this again puts further pressure on ICE owners that will start retirering their cars and a faster rate.
This becomes a feedback loop what will both decrease the vehicle fleet and collapse the value of ICE cars. 7/
This means that the total fleet refresh will not take 20 years as it occurs today. 8/
I expect that from the year when the majority of cars sold are EV the transition will take 10 years & we'll end up will a smaller fleet (average of less that 1 car per household) & where the large majority of miles driven per year will be done by autonomous taxis end/
@threadreaderapp unroll

More from Tech

"I really want to break into Product Management"

make products.

"If only someone would tell me how I can get a startup to notice me."

Make Products.

"I guess it's impossible and I'll never break into the industry."

MAKE PRODUCTS.

Courtesy of @edbrisson's wonderful thread on breaking into comics –
https://t.co/TgNblNSCBj – here is why the same applies to Product Management, too.


There is no better way of learning the craft of product, or proving your potential to employers, than just doing it.

You do not need anybody's permission. We don't have diplomas, nor doctorates. We can barely agree on a single standard of what a Product Manager is supposed to do.

But – there is at least one blindingly obvious industry consensus – a Product Manager makes Products.

And they don't need to be kept at the exact right temperature, given endless resource, or carefully protected in order to do this.

They find their own way.
1. One of the best changes in recent years is the GOP abandoning libertarianism. Here's GOP Rep. Greg Steube: “I do think there is an appetite amongst Republicans, if the Dems wanted to try to break up Big Tech, I think there is support for that."

2. And @RepKenBuck, who offered a thoughtful Third Way report on antitrust law in 2020, weighed in quite reasonably on Biden antitrust frameworks.

3. I believe this change is sincere because it's so pervasive and beginning to result in real policy changes. Example: The North Dakota GOP is taking on Apple's app store.


4. And yet there's a problem. The GOP establishment is still pro-big tech. Trump, despite some of his instincts, appointed pro-monopoly antitrust enforcers. Antitrust chief Makan Delrahim helped big tech, and the antitrust case happened bc he was recused.

5. At the other sleepy antitrust agency, the Federal Trade Commission, Trump appointed commissioners
@FTCPhillips and @CSWilsonFTC are both pro-monopoly. Both voted *against* the antitrust case on FB. That case was 3-2, with a GOP Chair and 2 Dems teaming up against 2 Rs.

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This is NONSENSE. The people who take photos with their books on instagram are known to be voracious readers who graciously take time to review books and recommend them to their followers. Part of their medium is to take elaborate, beautiful photos of books. Die mad, Guardian.


THEY DO READ THEM, YOU JUDGY, RACOON-PICKED TRASH BIN


If you come for Bookstagram, i will fight you.

In appreciation, here are some of my favourite bookstagrams of my books: (photos by lit_nerd37, mybookacademy, bookswrotemystory, and scorpio_books)