Thread on Importance of Mean Reversion

U must have remember the charts of auto sector breakout on last monday,potentially poised to be the next leader in the rally.
But since then it just fell bad and deep
Breaking the breakout bar low

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10 week EMA is more logically powerful than a 10 day EMA. The reason being in weekly TF, 10EMA represents 50EMA in daily while 10 day EMA corresponds to much less important 50EMA in 75 min TF.

In the same way 40 week EMA is proxy to all important 200EMA in daily.

#aplapollo

price poised nicely to reverse from here
trades near to channel bottom while major trend is up

Before making ur trade entry or even before making a bias of trend as either bullish or bearish, do u use any objective measures to define the trend based on price, volume and momentum?
Price will always go back and forth move no matter how strong the trend is.

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So an objecctive way of defining the trend as bullish or bearish will help u to stay out of counter trend trades which usually not only hit SL, but slippages tend to be quite high in case of those trades. If u dont believe that, u can either check ur journal .

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In the pic, an example was shown with objectively defining the price trend based on momenum. If price is bullish then either take long entry while price pulls back on 20 SMA or when it makes a new breakout, its very very safe method.

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Even one can use simple MACD for defining the trend. Indicator doesnt have any magic, be it custom made or default one. Trick is in identifying the bias when its quite clear and obvious and not to trade till then.

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Do u want to study past bear markets?

Use Weekly chart
Plot Bollinger Bands with 50,2 setting
Locate when ever price hit lower band
Locate the highest swing high befoire the fall
The period in between is bear market

Here we have 4 such occations after 2010.

Stoploss is carved on the rock
while
Target is written on the sand

Understanding HIGH & LOW VIX

VIX at 16: If you check today's IV behaviour, they were not spiking much even with decent delta move in BNF. The movement was subtle, giving some time to adjust. So someone having good adjustment mechanism can stay in the game longer.

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VIX at 20: The same delta move will be more fierce, coupled with rise in premiums. When premiums rise with movement, then the adjustment cost increases exponentially. The premiums can fall back at EOD, but the damage is done if caught in the spike.

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After talking to few traders, their backtest result was in favor of high VIX of 2020, rather than 2017-19. The key flaw in the backtest were the adjustments which are not easy to calculate. Combination of high theta & fixed SL during high VIX, the IV crush is cashed at EOD.

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Neutral option sellers who don't adjust & have fixed SL on a static straddle will not be able to benefit highly in low VIX. The straddle which moves away from ATM will increase no matter what. But if we keep on rolling our strikes, then we get good realisation of theta.

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I have made majority of my profits in option selling when VIX was at 13-15, mostly just relying on my adjustments. Since 2020 with high VIX, adjustments stopped working because of increase in the frequency of delta + IV spike combos & so had to shift to directional trading.

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'Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication' #leonardodavinci

In #technicalanalysis keeping it simple eliminates noise & avoids too much analysis leading to paralysis
#Journalists can use #linecharts to analyse the market & build stories
#MediaFriday
PC @vrvcharts
@CMTAssociation

Momentum always fade before it reverses. No abrupt reversal in it.
U can see in the pic below, it always passess through a choppy zone, before trend reversal to give a clear momentum.

With a huge gap up and no follow through today, price is still not bearish
means no short now