Am prompted to do this 🧵 following @BEERG sharing of Gove 19 April’16 speech, @kevinhorourke observation on interests & ideas & @CER_Grant observation that historians will ponder the weakness of economic interests in Brexit negs at @InstituteGC yesterday @BrigidLaffan

1. Seems to me that @BorisJohnson has delivered on the @michaelgove 2016 speech in one important sense-not the sunny uplands of Brexit but the working out of what Brexit was to this clique who drove the Leave campaign @BrigidLaffan
2. That was a total rejection of the #EU model of internationalisation, its governance regimes, institutions, regulatory frameworks, its ideals & the political, economic & legal order it represents. @BrigidLaffan
3. This was evident in tone of Brexit negs, for example @DavidGHFrost dismissal of EU as ‘your organisation’ @MichelBarnier & refusal to recognise nature of EU re. Diplomatic states. Treating it an as IO despite the fact that there were U.K. MEPs in @Europarl_EN @BrigidLaffan
4. Evident also in refusal of a chapter on foreign & security policy & the preference for bilateral relations particularly the key capitals post Brexit. @BrigidLaffan
5. #UK negotiating strategy was driven by anything but the EU aka @pmdfoster wonderful long read on the negs. Core principle was to prove you can do a deal with EU without its laws. Not smart-of@course you can but it will be a thin thin deal @BrigidLaffan
6. The desire to by pass & diminish EU as a polity will not serve @BorisJohnson or U.K. in the short or medium term. EU is both the member states & the collective. You can’t have one without the other. @BrigidLaffan
7. There will be no strategic relationship unless London comes to terms with the EU & begins to understand what it means to its near neighbours. Not just Brussels or bureaucracy but the way this part of the world handles the challenges of 21st century @BrigidLaffan
8. Brexiteers might prefer it were other but #EU is going nowhere & London needs a strategy for dealing with it as it is-a hybrid political system with market power. It will prove easier for Irish business to go around U.K. than it will for U.K. to avoid coming to terms with EU

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global health policy in 2020 has centered around NPI's (non-pharmaceutical interventions) like distancing, masks, school closures

these have been sold as a way to stop infection as though this were science.

this was never true and that fact was known and knowable.

let's look.


above is the plot of social restriction and NPI vs total death per million. there is 0 R2. this means that the variables play no role in explaining one another.

we can see this same relationship between NPI and all cause deaths.

this is devastating to the case for NPI.


clearly, correlation is not proof of causality, but a total lack of correlation IS proof that there was no material causality.

barring massive and implausible coincidence, it's essentially impossible to cause something and not correlate to it, especially 51 times.

this would seem to pose some very serious questions for those claiming that lockdowns work, those basing policy upon them, and those claiming this is the side of science.

there is no science here nor any data. this is the febrile imaginings of discredited modelers.

this has been clear and obvious from all over the world since the beginning and had been proven so clearly by may that it's hard to imagine anyone who is actually conversant with the data still believing in these responses.

everyone got the same R

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