Before everyone raises glasses to make their “the system worked” toasts, let’s remember…./1

The racism, nativism, sexism, xenophobia, anti-Semitism, and vicious social hatred/2
The lawlessness and disorder, the disinformation and lies, the vanishing norms of governance/3
The corruption and cronyism, the toxic rhetoric from the presidential bully pulpit, the dysfunctional and brutal public policies/4
The politicization of basic public health and the dismissal of science and expertise/5
Two impeachments, one insurrection, and Washington, D.C. locked down because of realistic fears of domestic right-wing terrorism/6
All the times that the president "went there" and there was no turning point, there was no backlash, and there were no profiles in courage from a radicalized Republican Party/7
No. The system didn’t work. It survived, and just barely. This could easily have gone a different way/8
Over 400,000 Americans didn’t have to die/9
Anybody who has studied our history—and not the kind put forward in the propaganda contained in the “1776 Report”—should not be surprised. The last four years have been a long time in the making. But we still should feel shocked and upset. Otherwise, we are dangerously numb/10
Now is not the time to forget. Now is the time for our leaders to acknowledge what went down and to start the long process of finally dealing with the roots of our nation’s problems/end

More from Society

I've seen many news articles cite that "the UK variant could be the dominant strain by March". This is emphasized by @CDCDirector.

While this will likely to be the case, this should not be an automatic cause for concern. Cases could still remain contained.

Here's how: 🧵

One of @CDCgov's own models has tracked the true decline in cases quite accurately thus far.

Their projection shows that the B.1.1.7 variant will become the dominant variant in March. But interestingly... there's no fourth wave. Cases simply level out:

https://t.co/tDce0MwO61


Just because a variant becomes the dominant strain does not automatically mean we will see a repeat of Fall 2020.

Let's look at UK and South Africa, where cases have been falling for the past month, in unison with the US (albeit with tougher restrictions):


Furthermore, the claim that the "variant is doubling every 10 days" is false. It's the *proportion of the variant* that is doubling every 10 days.

If overall prevalence drops during the studied time period, the true doubling time of the variant is actually much longer 10 days.

Simple example:

Day 0: 10 variant / 100 cases -> 10% variant
Day 10: 15 variant / 75 cases -> 20% variant
Day 20: 20 variant / 50 cases -> 40% variant

1) Proportion of variant doubles every 10 days
2) Doubling time of variant is actually 20 days
3) Total cases still drop by 50%

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