BC SOCIETY
Saved by @Mollyycolllinss

1/ Ch-ch-ch-ch-changes (Turn and face the strange)... as futures, sit pinned @ an odd elevated morning perch awaiting Janet Yellen’s confirmation hearing & her call for the new admin to ‘act big’...this narrative has markets on high. But the truth is that it’s actually just Gary

 2/x behind the curtain, pulling the usual levers. Until Vixperation on Wed, it‘ll be nearly impossible to break the IVol oversupply. This pinning of IVol was so strong on Fri that despite a peak to trough drop of nearly -2% in SPX, fixed strike straddle were down across the board
3/x & particularly decimated in the very front of the curve. IVol particularly in the 30 day range is showing dramatic signs of oversupply relative to the rest of the IVol surface, giving a nod to the Vix strip driving the compression. Even during windows of vanna weakness as we
4/x are in now, this oversupply phenomenon paired w/ a market decline & a slide to higher fixed strike IVols can still lead to a temporary ‘Dead Cat Bounce’ where residual Vanna/charm morning flows lead to brief AM market support. These supporting flows are generally just strong
5/x enough for a countertrend thrust &, unable to meaningfully impact more important macro flows & hence generally should be faded starting around 9-10am CST. That said Gary’ll likely see to it that there is no major technical break below 1 stdev in the 20 days, likely preventing
6/x a waterfall until Wed. This will coincide perfectly w/ the inauguration & this could serve as an ideal narrative for a decline. Watch for continued NDX weakness in the face of more bear steepening, retail call buying optimism, trolling of my account, & more of the shooting of
7/x generals as signs of coming weakness. Until Wed morning, calendar expansion should continue to be the name of the game,& given the coming wave if policy news that should begin to flow, I would expect more policy winners & losers to drive dispersion for the next 2 days w/ Gary
8/x still firmly in control of the index’s wheel of fortune.The broad macro assumption by investors that MOAR stimulus is great for markets will ultimately be a miscalculation.The shift will be great for the economy & cyclical earnings.However the continued march higher in yields
9/x will eventually lead to multiple contraction...& this market is all about liquidity & multiples at this juncture.The wall of worry is still fading, & the exuberance of a reopening economy is building, which increasingly means that this window of weakness will most likely come
10/x & go as just a correction in time. But we must be on alert still until 1/22. We will continue to trade this market tactically from the short side at our levels taking profits into a likely stair step correction or sideways chop. Watch for our 3718.25 level as well as our
11/11 1 stdev bollinger down of the 20 day. If we can‘t close below the later by 1/22 EOD, we will be forced to begin looking to position longer for a potential blow off euphoric reopening top in a future coming window in 1 or 2 months... Remember, it’s never EZ. Good Luck! 🍀

More from Cem Karsan 🥐

Cem Karsan \U0001f950
Cem Karsan 🥐
@jam_croissant
1/x ‘Twas the night before Christmas & all through the market not an order was stirring not even for $TGT.
The bonuses were entered into payroll with care,
In hopes that next year would bring a similar fare;
The Bulls were nestled all snug in their beds;

2/x While visions of $TSLA danced in their heads;
& Biden in his Covid mask, & Powell with his still flowing money tap,
Had just settled their brains for a long winter's nap,
When out on the screen there arose such a clatter,
All sprang from their beds to see what was the matter.

3/x Away to their monitors they flew like a flash,
Tore open their Bloombergs & threw up the dash(board).
The S. Claus rally in markets, that all of us know,
Paired w/vaccine reopening, Gave a bid to the market, leaving old prices below,
When what to their wondering👀 did appear?

4/x But a Georgia runoff rushing up to them with complacency, not fear...
With once reliable Vanna flows no longer lively & quick,
They knew in a moment the markets might get quite sick...
Unexpected, 2 Georgia Dem peaches into Congress they came,

5/x Whistling & shouting they called for more fiscal, ‘CARES Too’ its new name:
"Now, Healthcare! Now, Infrastructure! Now Green Energy & Protectionism!
On, Labor rights! on, Minimum Wage! on, Basic Income & Populism!
To middle class households, To the poorest of them all!
TRADING
Cem Karsan \U0001f950
Cem Karsan 🥐
@jam_croissant
1/x As we’ve been calling for since Nov, today we finally got our 2 ‘Georgia Peaches’🍑 precisely on schedule, as we’ve called for since Aug, & the underlying rotation has confirmed now for months, this matters. This is a historic turning point. It matters not only https://t.co/BFxKGrI1Oo


2/x for this year, but for the economic trajectory of America & likely the macroeconomic regime of the developed world for the coming decade. That said, contrary to popular belief, the market does not move based on news in the short term if the positioning doesn’t allow it to.

3/x & our old friend Gary the 🦍 & his sidekick Vanna are positioned to have this market pinned through 1/11. So, as explained ad nauseam, the election news, though fundamentally important, won’t matter to the index itself in the ST. As predicted, the largest moves from the GA

4/x runoff INITIALLY have come from factor rotation. This should continue to be the case, as the street is oversupplied IVol & the index is pinned. This not only allows for idiosyncratic risk moves in constituents, but it actually FORCES extreme noncorrelation & rotation, as we

5/x have witnessed now for the past 2 days. This Vol compression will be increasingly difficult to break free from until 1/11-1/15, but the window of weakness is coming...soon the final hedges from the ‘election hump’ in Nov will expire with the Jan monthly options. Once the
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Cem Karsan \U0001f950
Cem Karsan 🥐
@jam_croissant
1/x Vanna is back & ready to turn back on the charm! Overnight the market hit our weeklong target of **3705 and pulled back... We were able to take profits & play for a bit of morning digestion. It’s been a nice +3.5% in a week w/a few extra scalps along the way...But the best


2/x part has been the gift of Vol compression, which along w/ short Vol profits, has given us significant calendar expansion & dispersion opps, as predicted. I expect this to continue this week as well, as Ivol oversupply should continue to be the dominant force until 12/11.This,

3/x paired w/ the significantly increasing Vanna & Charm flows, will make it hard for any decline until 12/14 to catch meaningful momentum. This said, the narrowing of 20 day RVol as well as the 2 stddev of the 20 day just overhead should cap any rallies, given the dramatically

4/x overextended retail (8-day SMA of P/C equity is the lowest in 20 years) & institutional positioning. This push/pull, should ultimately keep the market fairly pinned this week...Jan 8th call’s on back are incredibly cheap w/ a GA runoff event straddle of only $55, which given

5/x the potential macro-cyclical consequences of the next 2 years of fiscal stimulus seems absurd...& In terms of a more short term trade,Tesla Vol is either too high or 12/18 on back calendar spreads in the SPX are too low, as there’s no premium being priced in for the inclusion
TRADING
Cem Karsan \U0001f950
Cem Karsan 🥐
@jam_croissant
1/x The market continues to try & shake out weak hands from overextended positioning by both HF & Retail...After a strong Vanna run up overnight, as expected, retail exuberance exploded on the open in the form of retail call buying, this fragility, paired w/a)Mean reverting flows


2/x from pinned Index Vol b) well documented, risk parity rebalancing flows & c) selling flows tied to bank EOY liquidity constraints. In combination, these flows have together have amounted to substantive selling pressures, strong enough to counteract the positive vanna/ charm

3/x flows, & point to continued likely index RVol an IVol pinning...Historically, the week of quarterly OpEx markets are notoriously volatile intraday, but also mean reverting like we saw today. I think it is fair to expect continued IVol compression & more of the same underlying

4/x chop. Vanna/Charm flows will lose their oomph after Wed 12/16 vixperation morning. There’s a window of weakness which I’ve spoken to for a month that falls 12/16-12/23. That could open a brief window that could lead to revaluation of the real risk & short interest,post 1/6...

5/x but the overwhelming 10k 🦍 of index Vol compression should still hold any correction in time & price in check in the shortterm and it’ll be hard to have anything blow up too bad in SPX land given how cheap & abundant Xmas Vol is 12/23-12/24. NTM, a stim deal & potential Fed
ECONOMY
Cem Karsan \U0001f950
Cem Karsan 🥐
@jam_croissant
1/x Vanna joined the wheel of fortune on this day in 1982,& 38 years later she’s stronger than ever...Friday’s into the Mon of qrtrly OpEx in particular aren’t a time to trifle w/her...As called for, the market continues to try & shake out weak hands from overextended positioning


2/x by both HF & Retail, but ultimately these moves are no match for our fair lady’s charming flows during this window, & should continue to support this market through 12/16 w/ qrtrly Vixperation & the Fed upon us....As I highlighted Fri, the minor correction in price/time that

3/x we got down to the 20 day, w/precise technical support at that level, paired w/ increasingly positive Dark Pool (DIX) demand was a textbook buy signal, given the timing...Despite all of this, the real story is not these positive flows nearly as much as the continued reflexive

4/x IVol compression...This is the holiday gift that keeps on giving. Along w/ continued targeted short Vol, massive calendar expansion & dispersion opportunities continue to print $ with VRP >94th % of occurrences & post 1/8 Vol still at a floor... This $ train doesn’t show any

5/x sign of stopping yet, as I expect Ivol oversupply should continue to be the dominant force through at least 12/16 & once we get through 12/21 without incident, likely beyond...W/ lots of imbedded potential energy still in the VRP to fuel more vanna/charm flows in the month to
HISTORY

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Brittany Packnett
Brittany Packnett
@MsPackyetti
We should stop confusing what someone was doing when we became aware of them with all they are capable of, interested in, or ever hope to be

Let folks have their many talents, interests and gifts. Life is far more fun with variety, loves.

A lot of folks have come to know me as an activist & I’m grateful that folks care to know me at all.

But I wasn’t born in 2014. I was a whole teacher, executive, policy person, speaker, arts and culture lover, reader, writer, woman of faith, fashion and more before 4 yrs ago 🤷🏾‍♀️

We rightfully complain that marginalized people are not allowed to be fully human.

But we internalize and transfer our oppression daily. It’s a smog. We all breathe it in & act it out.

And then tell WoC “girl ain’t you supposed to be a _______? Why you doing ____?”

Can I live?

And don’t go reading anything personal into this-this isn’t about me necessarily and it’s no subtweet (I try hard not to do that.)

I’ve just been observing that behavior more and more lately. Especially when it comes to marginalized folks.

Evolution should be our aspiration.

“Can’t knock the hustle” should be our anthem.

As long as someone isn’t bringing active and continual harm, why can’t they explore their many sides?
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Louisette Lanteigne \U0001f30e\u270c\ufe0f\u2696\ufe0f\u2665\ufe0f
Louisette Lanteigne 🌎✌...
@lulex
Count Giancarlo Cicogna was a member of the Ciga hotels clan. He was with Ghislaine Maxwell for 4 years. He was 'the man who moulded the Ghislaine we now see. He told her where to get her hair cut, and what to wear.'
https://t.co/XorCl9VKW6


There is a very Ghislaine like character named Madam Anais in the movie La Belle De Jour who runs a Brothel. The film was produced by Marina Cicogna.


Private View of 'Once Upon Time' an Exhibition of Photographs by Marina Cicogna Sponsored by Fiat at the Little Black Gallery,

My view Marina Cicogna looks like Dottie in the Disney Channel series WandaVision.


NY Times covered a story of Countess Marina Cicogna, a woman with a very intetesting life. I am sure she knows many secrets and that gives her power over people of influence.
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UN Watch
UN Watch
@UNWatch
Wow! Rare moment of truth at the UN as Miss Iraq Sarah Idan calls out Hamas terrorism, antisemitism taught in Muslim countries, and biased media.

THREAD: "Two years ago, I represented Iraq at Miss Universe. I posted a photo with Miss Israel on social media..."


"I was told to remove it and forced to denounce Israeli policies. I received death threats. Since then I can no longer return to my homeland.

Why did the Iraqi government fail to condemn the threats, or allow my freedom of speech?"

"The issue between Arabs and Israelis goes beyond policy disagreements. It’s deeply rooted in the belief systems taught in Muslim countries, which are anti-Semitic."

"Sadly, hatred & intolerance are reinforced by biased media. When I watched the news last month, why did they never report that the Hamas terrorist organization fired nearly 700 rockets at Israeli civilians in one weekend or that Hamas used Palestinians in Gaza as human shields?"

"Why do they never condemn Hamas for initiating the attacks? Instead, they only show those killed by the response, in self-defense, and blame Israel."
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Aaron Reichlin-Melnick
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@ReichlinMelnick
We finally have the U.S. Citizenship Act Bill Text! I'm going to go through some portions of the bill right now and highlight some of the major changes and improvements that it would make to our immigration system.

Thread:


First the Bill makes a series of promises changes to the way we talk about immigrants and immigration law.

Gone would be the term "alien" and in its place is "noncitizen."

Also gone would be the term "alienage," replaced with "noncitizenship."


Now we get to the "earned path to citizenship" for all undocumented immigrants present in the United States on January 1, 2021.

Under this bill, anyone who satisfies the eligibility criteria for a new "lawful prospective immigrant status" can come out of the shadows.


So, what are the eligibility criteria for becoming a "lawful prospective immigrant status"? Those are in a new INA 245G and include:

- Payment of the appropriate fees
- Continuous presence after January 1, 2021
- Not having certain criminal record (but there's a waiver)


After a person has been in "lawful prospective immigrant status" for at least 5 years, they can apply for a green card, so long as they still pass background checks and have paid back any taxes they are required to do so by law.

However! Some groups don't have to wait 5 years.
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Kurt "Masks Save Lives" Eichenwald
Kurt "Masks Save Lives...
@kurteichenwald
For those of us suffering & dying in Texas, the sociopathy of @GOP that leads to an astonishing lack of concern about our lives by evil folk like @GregAbbott_TX @GovernorPerry @TuckerCarlson @DanCrenshawTX et al who blatantly lie about what’s happening...1

...just to score political points - and protect the profits of energy companies - is almost incomprehensible. These are people who would claim Social Security caused 9/11 if it was convenient. What caused this catastrophe is vast vast majority from gas, then coal/nuclear...2

...then wind. The ONLY source of power that is delivering more than expected in budgeting is wind. But that’s not convenient to say for the oil/gas/coal industry, so the @GregAbbott_TX @GovernorPerry @DanCrenshawTX stand atop our dead bodies lying to protect the companies...2

...shockingly, the ONLY people in a position of state/national strength are the executives with the company that manages electricity in the state, @ERCOT_ISO. But they can’t tell the whole truth, because that would entail revealing how much stupidity was done here for profit...3

...of industry by Texas @GOP. If gas/nuke/nuclear/wind had been winterized - as they are everywhere else in the country - this would have largely been prevented. But it would have cost companies money, and that would cut into profits. If the gas lines has been buried deeper...3
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It was here Periya Nambigal performed Pancha Samskaaram to Ramanujar under Magizham tree.
Sri Ramanujar was on his way from Kanchipuram to meet Sri Periya Nambigal at Sri Rangam to become his disciple. Sri Periya Nambigal also started towards Kanchipuram to meet Ramanujar.


They both met here at Madurantakam.
Small Mandapam where Ramanujar undertook Pancha Samskaaram is seen in the temple. Separate sannidhi is for Periya Nambigal & Ramanujar & this is the only temple where Ramanujar is seen as a Grahastha (married person) and not in Sanyasa kolam.


Story says about an incident which occurred during British rule. The Madurantakam lake bund was about to breach, due to heavy rain & village will be flooded if it happened. Dt collector was Cl. Lionel Blaze who took efforts to protect the bund & asked for the piles of stones


in the temple to protect it. But it was meant for Janakavalli ( sita) Thayar sannidhi which faced shortage of fund. Lionel Blaze prayed Sri Ramar to save the bund and if so he will provide fund to construct.
That night he saw in the lightning, Sri Rama & Lakshmana walked along
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SRI SWETHA VINAYAGAR, THIRUVALANCHUZHI, KUMBAKONAM
(TN)
#bharatmandir

While main deity is Shiva as Kapartheeswarar, the kshetram is famous for Ganesha, known as Swetha/Vellai Vinayagar (white Vinayak)

During samudra manthan, Vasuki snake (used as rope) started spewing venom.


Unable to bear the intense heat, Devas rushed to Siva. He told them that this was because the task was started without getting Ganesha’s approval.
So the Devas created a Ganesha murti from white sea foam and worshipped it.
It was later taken by Indra to Indralok.
@GunduHuDuGa


But once Indra had to come to Earth to pray to Shiva to seek relief from a curse inflicted on him. So he brought the murti of Ganesha with him. When he came here, he wanted to take bath before puja. So he gave the murti to a boy to hold for sometime. The boy was actually Shiva.


He kept the murti down and vanished. Indra could not lift it again and a divine voice told him to let Vinayagar stay there and visit every Ganesh Chaturthi to pray.
Since Vinayagar is made of foam, no abhishekam is done here. Only punugu is applied n camphor powder is sprinkled
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LING PURANA: IMPORTANCE AND CHARACTERISTICS

Reading Ling Purana provides bhog and moksha to the reader and listeners. It is about Shiva's sermon to Brahma when Shiva entered the Agni Ling and preached about Dharma sidhhi through the stories of Agni Kalp.


Vyasji divided this into two parts. This book is different from others and has eleven thousand shlokas which depict the glory of Shiva. This Puran is the summary about importance of Tridev.
It starts first with a questions. Then it describes the Shrishti in brief.

Then there is description of Yog and Kalp. Next is the evolution of Ling and its puja Vidhi. It consists of dialogue between Sanat Kumar and Shail etc. It also mentions the character of Dadhichi, the dharma representation of that yug, Bhuvan kosh description,

Chandravansh and Surya vansh. Next there is elaborate description of Shrishti, story of Tripur, Ling and Pashu Paash vimoksha, Vrats for Shiva, Discipline, Repentance, Arisht, description of Shri Shail. Next is the story of Andhakasur, Varah, Narsingh,

k¡lling of Jalandhar, Shiv sahastra naam, story of Daksha's yagya and its destruction, killing of Madan and marriage of Parvati.

Next is Vinayak katha, Shiv tandav, Ambrish katha and Upmanyu .
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Velimalai Kumaraswamy Kshetram
Kumarakovil, #Kanyakumari
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Velimalai Kumaraswamy Temple is a Murugan temple located in Kanyakumari District of Tamilnadu.

Muruga faces east and is said to be facing Sthanumalayan (Paramashiva) of Suchindram. Muruga is of


eight feet vigraham and Valli thayar is six feet tall. Eventhough Thiruthani is believed to be the place where Subrahmanya married Valli, it is also believed that Valli’s thayar's marriage took place with Murugan here.

There is a Kalyana Vinayakar sannidhi
who helped Muruga's


marriage with Valli. Kumarakovil is also known as Kumara Kshetram and Subrahmanya Sthala. The Tamil epic Chilapathikaram refers to the temple as Chera Nattu Aeragam

Wedding of Valli and Murugan is celebrated here in the Tamil month of Panguni (March-April).

Om Muruga
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Em\U0001f383jipedia \U0001f4d9
Em🎃jipedia 📙...
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