BC SOCIETY
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A few weeks ago @ClareCraigPath, @RealJoelSmalley and I wrote a short piece on endemic Covid, and what it might look like.

It seems particularly relevant to current

 Consider the possibility that all our naso-pharynxes together make up a single ecosystem, in which only one predator can be completely dominant.

We are not saying that this has definitely happened with Covid - but it would explain the disappearance of flu this year.
Every winter, we see "excess deaths" in the sense that more (mainly elderly) people die in the winter than in the summer.

This is a worldwide phenomenon.
It is now thought that all or nearly all of the extra deaths in Winter are due to infection with winter respiratory viruses, mainly influenza:

https://t.co/xOHDcSRgGB
However, we do not - and never have - extensively tested for the presence of such viruses in the critically ill elderly population, so we really have no idea how frequently infection is present, or in fact what its contribution to death is.
In 2017, researchers at 2 morgues in Spain swab-tested a series of recently deceased elderly individuals and found respiratory viruses in 47% of them. In only 15% of these had a diagnosis been made prior to death.

https://t.co/PBUnIfLtaf
The death certificates for all these individuals featured the usual wide range of pathologies that would be expected in this age group, but viruses were detected (post-mortem) across all categories of causes of death.
For this cohort - presumably representative of similar cohorts of subjects across Europe - what would the mortality picture have looked like had we applied a policy of recording the detected respiratory virus as the cause of death, irrespective of other pathologies?
That is, in effect, what we might be doing now, to some extent - Covid taking the place of other viruses (particularly influenza).

In other words, might some of the Covid deaths we are now seeing be those that would have sadly died in a normal winter anyway?
As is usually the case, the picture is more complex and there are probably a number of other factors contributing to the current mortality picture.
Firstly, there will of course be some additional "pure Covid" deaths as the virus moves into its endemic rather than pandemic stage.

This was seen in the year following the Swine flu pandemic:

https://t.co/uIB5lF7CKU
Secondly, there is increasing evidence of deaths being caused by nearly a year of restricted access to healthcare.

In fact, given the nation's state of health and presence of multiple diseases, it would be more surprising if there was no such effect.
That attendances at A&E departments making up the Syndromic Surveillance System (currently covering 82 hospitals in England) are running below the same period last year is consistent with this:
Ambulance calls for cardiac/respiratory arrest calls are high, yet calls for chest pain appear to be lower than average.

This is worryingly consistent with a picture of reluctance to seek help in time.
This would be highly unlikely to result in no excess deaths.

The numbers involved are not small, the arrest calls appear to be ~50-75 more than expected (daily), but chest pain calls ~250 per day fewer than expected.
Surprisingly, attendances for acute respiratory infections are well below average for the entire Autumn and Winter so far; although rising recently they are still below average.

This is consistent with the point made above - ie could Covid be replacing flu this year?
Some have previously claimed that this category does not include Covid, but the notes in the report seem quite clear that it does.
Finally, it must be acknowledged that the emergence of Covid is currently causing significant strain on our NHS, although it is worthwhile acknowledging that several reasons must contribute to this.
Firstly, it appears that treating Covid patients is more complex and onerous than treating those who would previously have been patients with a variety of other
- mainly undiagnosed - respiratory viruses.
Secondly, the reduction in beds available for a growing and ageing population is a major problem; they fell from 240,000 in 2000 to under 165,000 in 2019.

The figure fell by a further 10,000 beds to allow for social distancing between patients in hospital.
The need to segregate suspected Covid from confirmed Covid and non-Covid patients has a detrimental effect of bed management, as does the need for smaller bay sizes to accommodate distancing.

A&E departments can easily become clogged up by delays in finding beds for patients.
In some hospitals patients are not being discharged until their Covid test returns as negative.

Clearly returning patients to care homes during the window of infectivity would be a bad idea.

Beyond that this policy is surely inadvisable.
It should be recalled that some patients continue to test PCR positive for weeks or even months after infection, as experienced by the unfortunate British students stuck in Italy last summer:

https://t.co/qaIsjDD5Mm
PCR testing has led to a staffing crisis, as asymptomatic staff - even those who must be immune through known prior exposure - are made to self-isolate for two weeks.

50,000 NHS staff are absent for Covid reasons, out of 100,000 total absences.

https://t.co/qgpc00Otie
Finally, it should be acknowledged that staff are having to work in PPE and change it frequently, adding a significant additional burden to an already heavy workload.

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Prateechi \U0001f6eb\u2708\ufe0f\U0001f6e9\ufe0f
Prateechi 🛫✈️🛩️...
@BahuRaani
#Bookmark this

|| Geography and Astronomy ||

of “EARTH” according to Indian ancient scriptures

I repeat “Untold Unsung now Unearthed”

RT and spread the knowledge.

Slightly long thread but you’d be amaze. Go through entire thread carefully.


It is hoped that you have not forgotten that Svayambhuva Manu had a son named Priyavrata. Priyavrata had ten sons. Their names were Agnidhra, Agnivahu, Vapushmana, Dyutimana, Medha, Medhatithi, Bhavya, Savana, Putra and Jyotishmana.


Medha, Agnivahu and Putra had no desire to rule. They were not interested in material pursuits and became hermits.

Priyavrata divided the earth amongst the remaining seven sons. Thus it was that the earth came to be divided into seven regions or dvipas.


Agnidhra ruled over Jambudvip, Medhatithi over Plakshadvip, Vapushman over Shalmalidvip, Jyotishman over Kushadvip, Dyutimana over Krounchadvip, Bhavya over Shakadvip & Savan over Pushkaradvip


Agnidhra, the ruler of Jambudvipa, had nine sons. Their names were Nabhi Kimpurusha, Hari, Ilavrita, Ramya, Hiranyavana, Kuru, Bhadrashva and Ketumala.

Agnidhra divided Jambudvipa into nine regions (varshas) and gave each of his sons a region to rule over.
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Marshall Steinbaum \U0001f525
Marshall Steinbaum 🔥...
@Econ_Marshall
My wonderful @jainfamilyinst colleagues @laura_bmw & @Edi_Nilaj have released their new report "Student Debt and Young America," which pretty comprehensively demolishes many of the myths about who does and doesn't have student debt.
https://t.co/y02KFosRQ3
Highlights to follow
/1

@laura_bmw @Edi_Nilaj First of all, look at this one chart that tells you why the student debt crisis is happening: rising debt; stagnant income, and the gap has opened widest for minority borrowers.
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You look at that chart and you see the total failure of the human capital model to explain labor market outcomes, insofar as it even is a falsifiable social science hypothesis.
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Second, while it's true that total loan balances are increasing in income, student debt has increased most over time among the lowest-income groups. This tells you that student debt is becoming a marker of the disadvantaged rather than the advantaged.
/4


Third, balances on outstanding loans are rising over time, not declining. As I said in my last report, the student debt crisis is a crisis of non-repayment. This is why it's foolish to think the student debt is ever going to be paid back, whether it's cancelled now or not.
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SOCIETY
Sam Parker \U0001f1fa\U0001f1f2
Sam Parker 🇺🇲...
@SamParkerSenate
Shall we do a thread of Blue Checks spewing hatred towards Rush Limbaugh and the rest of us on the Right?

https://t.co/eXLNam2gv4
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दधीचि ऋषि को मनाही थी कि वह अश्विनी कुमारों को किसी भी अवस्था में ब्रह्मविद्या का उपदेश नहीं दें। ये आदेश देवराज इन्द्र का था।वह नहीं चाहते थे कि उनके सिंहासन को प्रत्यक्ष या परोक्ष रुप से कोई भी खतरा हो।मगर जब अश्विनी कुमारों ने सहृदय प्रार्थना की तो महर्षि सहर्ष मान गए।


और उन्होनें ब्रह्मविद्या का ज्ञान अश्विनि कुमारों को दे दिया। गुप्तचरों के माध्यम से जब खबर इन्द्रदेव तक पहुंची तो वे क्रोध में खड़ग ले कर गए और महर्षि दधीचि का सर धड़ से अलग कर दिया।मगर अश्विनी कुमार भी कहां चुप बैठने वाले थे।उन्होने तुरंत एक अश्व का सिर महर्षि के धड़ पे...


...प्रत्यारोपित कर उन्हें जीवित रख लिया।उस दिन के पश्चात महर्षि दधीचि अश्वशिरा भी कहलाए जाने लगे।अब आगे सुनिये की किस प्रकार महर्षि दधीचि का सर काटने वाले इन्द्र कैसे अपनी रक्षा हेतु उनके आगे गिड़गिड़ाए ।

एक बार देवराज इन्द्र अपनी सभा में बैठे थे, तो उन्हे खुद पर अभिमान हो आया।


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foone
foone
@Foone
It is 2018 and this error message is a mistake from 1974.
This limitation, which is still found in the very latest Windows 10, dates back to BEFORE STAR WARS. This bug is as old as Watergate.


When this was developed, nothing had UPC codes yet because they'd just been invented.
Back when this mistake was made, There was only one Phone Company, because they hadn't been broken up yet. Ted Bundy was still on the loose. Babe Ruth's home run record was about to fall.

When this bug was developed, Wheel of Fortune hadn't yet aired. No one had seen Rocky Horror. Steven Spielberg was still a little-known directory of TV films and one box-office disappointment. SNL hadn't aired yet. The Edmund Fitzgerald was still hauling iron ore.

WHEN THIS STUPID MISFEATURE WAS INVENTED, THE GODFATHER PART II HAD JUST OPENED IN THEATERS.

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Anu Satheesh \U0001f1ee\U0001f1f3
Anu Satheesh 🇮🇳...
@AnuSatheesh5
#Guruvayur_Krishna_Bhakthi  🕉
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#Storytime
Beautiful Story of Guruvayurappan

Poonathanam Namboothiri was a great devotee of Guruvayurappan. One day Poonthanam was going to Guruvayur Kshetram. It was night time and eventhough Namboothiri was tired he continued to walk


Suddenly some thieves came and blocked his way. Poonthanam cried for Shri Krishna to help. Thieves snatched all valuables from him, but Namboothiri holding his Bhaghavatam book called Shri Krishna to help. That time a man came in a horse back and fought with thieves and protected


Namboothiri. Poonthanam thanked Krishna for helping him from danger and said to the man that "Shri Krishna has send you here and I don't know how to thank you".  The man smiled and told that he is Mangattachan, minister of  samoodhiris. Poonthanam once again thanked him and


gave his ring to Mangattachan as a token of thanks and continued his journey. He reached Guruvayur early morning for Nirmalya Darshan. Temple poojari came near him and told that Guruvayurappan came in his dreams and asked to hand over the ring to poonthanam.


When he opened Kshetra Nada poonthanam was surprised to see his ring on Guruvayurappan, which he gifted to Mangattachan. He understood that it was Guruvayurappan who came as Mangattachan to protect him. This is how Bhagwan treat his devotees.

Hare Krishna
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Some people really benefit from hearing advice that everyone knows, for the same reason we keep schools open despite every subject in them having been taught before.

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Your idea is not valuable, at all. All value is in the execution. You think you are an exception; you are not. You should not insist on an NDA to talk about it; nobody serious will engage in contract review over an idea, and this will mark you as clueless.

Technologists tend to severely underestimate the difficulty and expense of creating software, especially at companies which do not have fully staffed industry leading engineering teams ("because software is so easy there, amirite guys?")

Charge more. Charge more still. Go on.

The press is a lossy and biased compression of events in the actual world, and is singularly consumed with its own rituals, status games, and incentives. The news necessarily fails to capture almost everything which happened yesterday. What it says is important usually isn't.

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Arif Hasan\U0001f1ee\U0001f1f3
Arif Hasan🇮🇳...
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5 star RSI Strategy by @VishalMalkan

Unconventional approach of 60-40 RSI and range shift concept.

According to him,
whenever the market is bearish,
it won’t be able to cross 60,
and whenever in a bullish trend,
it won’t be able to cross 40.

Like & Retweet for Maximum Reach.

So, instead of the 70-30 Relative Strength Index,
we will use the 60-40 range for the RSI indicator for this strategy.

When the
Monthly and Weekly RSI>60,
& when the RSI takes support at 40 in the daily chart,
it may bounce back and most probably it will not go below 40.

If a bullish candle is formed at the 40 RSI level,
the prices may bounce back, and one can enter the stock.

The stoploss can be placed at the low of that bullish candlestick,
and the target can be the 60 RSI level.

When the
Monthly and Weekly RSI<40,
& when the RSI takes resistance at 60 in the daily chart,
it may bounce back and most probably it will not go above 60

If a bearish candle is formed at the 60 RSI level,
the prices may bounce back from there, & 1 can enter the stock 4 shorting

The stoploss can be placed at the high of that bearish candlestick, and the target can be the 40 RSI levels.

#banknifty

This range shift concept can be applied in any timeframe,
whether intraday, daily,weekly, etc.
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