BC SOCIETY
Saved by @jacobhtml

🧵on the Toronto area SGTF (S-Gene Target Failure) study to detect B117 (UK variant). It looked at 11,485 positive tests over Dec 16 to Feb 3 and found 448 had SGTF* (3.9%). These charts show the growth.
https://t.co/5L8tF0MwDv

 2. Note: Not every SGTF is B117 but almost all were confirmed with WGS (whole genomic sequencing). Rt for the SGTF was 1.17, non-SGTF were .82 meaning SGTF had an Rt 44% higher. This means that B117 is growing quickly (80% per week in recent weeks) and is projected to overtake
3. the old variants around Feb 20th in the Toronto area. Because the Rt (reproduction number) was only .82 without B117, we know the lockdown was working well in Toronto. It's only because the variant was a small share that infections and cases fell. If it had reached 100%,
4. then every infection would have infected 1.17 more infections and we would have had exponential growth EVEN IN LOCKDOWN where we have seen cases plummet.
5. This data is for the Toronto area. The projections have uncertainty - Feb 20 is approximate but once B117 becomes increasingly dominant over the next 6 weeks, current lockdown efforts would be hard-pressed to stop R from moving above 1, meaning an exponential growth in cases.
6. That's why many experts and public health professionals are sounding the alarm now, knowing that every relaxation of lockdown restrictions today increases the chances that B117 sends R well above 1 and creates a significant new wave.
7. This is just one of many reasons why I believe that we should be heading in the opposite direction: increasing restrictions instead of reopening to a framework that allows indoor gatherings and higher Rt.
8. This isn't a choice between public health and business health. Businesses are suffering now. But if we do this wrong now, the impact on businesses will be much more severe longer term than if we do it right. And the impact on the population at risk of dying (mostly 60+) will
9. be much greater now than later after millions of more vaccines arrive over coming months. There really is no other option. We need to build our defenses asap starting with a reappraisal of pending reopening plans in Ontario's regions.
10. There is room for respectful scientific and public debate on the restrictions but the goal is simple: reduce Rt now and unite as a province.
https://t.co/cT0tuXxVgB
11. Some find reassurance in the current low rate of cases in some regions and hope that B117 won't impact them, that they are safe. We have seen from Roberta Place, North Bay and most recently eastern Newfoundland, that B117 can change complacency overnight.
12. So as much as this study was about the Toronto area, it applies to everywhere. We need to base our decisions based on 1) likely future risks, not the past and 2) the #precautionaryprinciple
/end

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(Thread👇) Tell us if you can relate to any of these? Do you have your own values that guide your decisions? Share them with us! ⛳

0. Coder != engineer

Coders focus just on writing code to make something work. Engineers take a much wider view, focusing on both the problem and every aspect of the solution. 🤓

1. “Import lib”

It's not wise to waste time building tools or libraries if there’s already something that does the same job! Wherever possible, extend existing libraries and contribute back to the community. 💁‍♀️

2. With great power comes greater responsibility

Every choice we make on our platform and every feature we build stands up to a responsibility — helping people make more data-driven decisions and bring about real change for millions of people. 💪

3. Fail fast and keep learning

Failing fast is about doing lots of fast iterations and learning from each, rather than getting stuck on one solution or decision. 👊
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The Sharing Scientist
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Unless we pass laws which support people to enable them to self-isolate properly, any improvements to test & trace will have marginal impact and cases will simply spiral out of control once again as we ease lockdown in December.

A short thread on what we can do and why 👇
1/


Improving the currently poor rates of self-isolation is actually the key point, which many scientists, politicians, & commentators do still seem to be missing.

This requires good public health communication, proper support for those who need to self-isolate, & trust.
2/

Massive testing and tracing will only significantly reduce
transmission if positive cases isolate effectively. Yet
currently fewer than 20% of those who should isolate are fully adherent.

I don't think I need to explain why it's so critical to improve these rates.

3/

Survey data shows intention to adhere to test/trace/isolate behaviours is higher than self-reported adherence: whilst 76% of people intend to share contacts, only 50% of people correctly recognise symptoms &
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What did failure and going broke teach me?
Here are some of the top few things I learnt.
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2. MOST IMPORTANTLY. Failure isn't the end and it's ok to fail. It is not your desired state of affairs but it won't end. Learn to pick up the pieces and try for another day. As Scarelett O'Hara "After all Tomorrow is another day"

3. Don't romanticise failure. It is not something you want people to go through. While it's important to remind people, world won't end, don't make it look like its some romantic notion that every successful person should go through. It isn't

4. It's absolutely fine not to be able to talk about your failure. There is no greatness in speaking about it. I do, cause I came out of it.And yet it took me time. I know how much I struggled to deal with the blow. How ashamed I felt of letting all down. It's part of the process

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Two things can be true at once:
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2. Another academic who himself uses threats of legal action to bully colleagues into silence is not a good faith champion of the free speech cause


I have kept quiet about Matthew's recent outpourings on here but as my estwhile co-author has now seen fit to portray me as an enabler of oppression I think I have a right to reply. So I will.

I consider Matthew to be a colleague and a friend, and we had a longstanding agreement not to engage in disputes on twitter. I disagree with much in the article @UOzkirimli wrote on his research in @openDemocracy but I strongly support his right to express such critical views

I therefore find it outrageous that Matthew saw fit to bully @openDemocracy with legal threats, seeking it seems to stifle criticism of his own work. Such behaviour is simply wrong, and completely inconsistent with an academic commitment to free speech.

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View the resolutions and voting results here:

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He goes on a homophobic rant about me, the pansy with a mask, and what a Very Manly Man he is because he's not afraid to smoke a pack of cigarettes while California is on fire. He doesn't need a mask, because something-something-heterosexual-something.

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Tell me why my feminism is wrong Grace.

Oh

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A high court in the UK made a delimited judgment about teenager's ability to consent to puberty blockers. This puts all trans people everywhere in the world at risk.

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Let's be honest Grace. It doesn't put trans people at risk. It puts trans ideology at risk. Because trans ideology depends on the idea of innate gender identity, and the trans child is the

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Switch from WhatsApp to Signal and enable disappearing messages. Most of us cannot stop using WhatsApp entirely but at least turn off back ups to Google Drive or iCloud. 2/n

Do not have private conversations using the messaging service on any social media platform like Facebook, Instagram or Twitter. 3/n

Switch from Gmail to ProtonMail or any other secure email service provider. 4/n


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