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I think this is debatable, and we won't know the answer for a while. There are two possible trajectories here. 1/x
Trajectory 1: The attack becomes a signal event like Ruby Ridge or Waco, and extremists use it as a rallying point going forward. They will certainly try to do this, but there are some key differences.
Primarily, the tepid federal response (which is bad on most levels) doesn't compare to those events, where LE screwed up and people died as an unambiguous result of questionable or straight bad LE action rather than the melee situation here.
Also those cases were the result of proactive federal enforcement, as opposed to a clearly defense posture here.
Trajectory 2 is backlash. There's some growing evidence for that in the snap polls from the last couple days. See:
https://t.co/lOi6DCZ9CK
https://t.co/lOi6DCZ9CK
This won't affect the diehards, but it might suggest the event won't bring a lot new blood into the movement.
Let's be clear: For the far-right groups that carried out Trump's insurrection, the siege of the Capitol was a huge success, a major propaganda coup. I talked to experts in right-wing extremism about what this event really meant to them. Alarming stuff:https://t.co/EzjeGsTlZK
— Greg Sargent (@ThePlumLineGS) January 8, 2021
Trajectory 1: The attack becomes a signal event like Ruby Ridge or Waco, and extremists use it as a rallying point going forward. They will certainly try to do this, but there are some key differences.
Primarily, the tepid federal response (which is bad on most levels) doesn't compare to those events, where LE screwed up and people died as an unambiguous result of questionable or straight bad LE action rather than the melee situation here.
Also those cases were the result of proactive federal enforcement, as opposed to a clearly defense posture here.
Trajectory 2 is backlash. There's some growing evidence for that in the snap polls from the last couple days. See:
https://t.co/lOi6DCZ9CK
https://t.co/lOi6DCZ9CK
This won't affect the diehards, but it might suggest the event won't bring a lot new blood into the movement.
Support for Trump supporters breaking into the US Capitol via new PBS/Marist poll:
— Ryan Struyk (@ryanstruyk) January 8, 2021
All Americans:
8% support
88% oppose
Republicans:
18% support
80% oppose
Democrats:
3% support
96% oppose
As Trump time comes to an end, a disturbing section of the left is thinking about reaching out to the hard right to try and make itself relevant with his angry, bigoted followers... [a short thread]
...Some of the Extremely Online Left in the US has deluded itself into thinking that the far right insurgency is a bluecollar movement (a bit like how both Blue Labour centrists and the Trot/Stalinist left in the UK persuaded itself Brexit is a working class victory)...
(of course, we know now the 6 January rioters were CEOs, lawyers, cops and whitecollar GOP activists https://t.co/vNW2JLzrye HT @FFRAFAction )
...Some of the Extremely Online Left in the US has deluded itself into thinking that the far right insurgency is a bluecollar movement (a bit like how both Blue Labour centrists and the Trot/Stalinist left in the UK persuaded itself Brexit is a working class victory)...
(of course, we know now the 6 January rioters were CEOs, lawyers, cops and whitecollar GOP activists https://t.co/vNW2JLzrye HT @FFRAFAction )
I think itâs better if you donât ask âwhy were other parties unable to stake out a position?â but âhow were the two parties able to claim such broad swaths of the political landscape?â No easy answers here of course, itâs one of the largest questions in political history.
I think the electoral systems, more so first past the post than presidentialism, come into it, but theyâre not the main factor. Most of it comes down to Americaâs, all together now, material conditions.
As @cushbomb has been noting a lot recently, Americaâs wealth of wide open land which you could keep settling allowed potential labour unrest to be diffused. There was always more to get.
So you donât end up with a Labour party, and around the time other countries did, America was going through the progressive era, which both parties were flirting with. The Socialists and Communists were repressed, so they couldnât be the left alternative either.
The Progressive Party probably came the closest of anyone to breaking the GOP-Dem dynamic but honestly if they did they probably would have supplanted one of those parties entirely, just as the Republicans supplanted the Whigs, so it would have just been another 2 party system.
Who has a good paper on why the US has just two parties?
— Matthew Yglesias \U0001f366 (@mattyglesias) November 28, 2020
It\u2019s not first past the post (Canada, UK) or presidentialism (Mexico, Brazil) so what gives?
I think the electoral systems, more so first past the post than presidentialism, come into it, but theyâre not the main factor. Most of it comes down to Americaâs, all together now, material conditions.
As @cushbomb has been noting a lot recently, Americaâs wealth of wide open land which you could keep settling allowed potential labour unrest to be diffused. There was always more to get.
So you donât end up with a Labour party, and around the time other countries did, America was going through the progressive era, which both parties were flirting with. The Socialists and Communists were repressed, so they couldnât be the left alternative either.
The Progressive Party probably came the closest of anyone to breaking the GOP-Dem dynamic but honestly if they did they probably would have supplanted one of those parties entirely, just as the Republicans supplanted the Whigs, so it would have just been another 2 party system.
The United States has an active faction of political leaders whose fidelity to democratic elections is 100% contingent on whether they win. This is an intolerable threat that must be squarely faced.
The people who raided the capitol last night ought to be punished. But they are foot soldiers. The real threat to the republic is an axis of political leaders (Trump, Cruz, Hawley etc) and right wing media outlets (Fox, OANN on down the line) who have whipped up the storm.
The thing, for me, that is crucial to understand about this moment in American history is how much it is powered by lying. Non-stop lying. The lying, misinformation, and disinformation is *the* salient point.
Because let's do a reverse thought experiment. Let's say, for example, Trump and Co. straight up stole the election. Losing on election night, he makes phone calls to several allied secretaries of state who suddenly announce a bunch of new votes for Trump and he's won GA/PA...
...let's further stipulate these calls get leaked. It leads to more hard evidence. Witnesses, data trail, video etc. It is clearly established the election results are fraudulent. But Trump and the GOP push ahead with Electoral College certification...
I can't stress this enough: From the top down, if the people responsible for today's events face no consequences for what they've done, the next time will be much worse. If a political line is crossed, either enforce its existence or accept that the line no longer exists.
— Patrick Wyman (@Patrick_Wyman) January 7, 2021
The people who raided the capitol last night ought to be punished. But they are foot soldiers. The real threat to the republic is an axis of political leaders (Trump, Cruz, Hawley etc) and right wing media outlets (Fox, OANN on down the line) who have whipped up the storm.
The thing, for me, that is crucial to understand about this moment in American history is how much it is powered by lying. Non-stop lying. The lying, misinformation, and disinformation is *the* salient point.
Because let's do a reverse thought experiment. Let's say, for example, Trump and Co. straight up stole the election. Losing on election night, he makes phone calls to several allied secretaries of state who suddenly announce a bunch of new votes for Trump and he's won GA/PA...
...let's further stipulate these calls get leaked. It leads to more hard evidence. Witnesses, data trail, video etc. It is clearly established the election results are fraudulent. But Trump and the GOP push ahead with Electoral College certification...
Hi, I'm Keith and I'll be live-tweeting today's Cuyahoga County Board of Election's meeting at 10:30AM for #CLEDocumenters
@cledocumenters @NeighborUpCle
The Cuyahoga Board of Election's website is
This is a special meeting for the Certification of Audits from the November 3rd Presidential Election.
Join us by:
calling 1-646-558-8656 or
entering Zoom MEETING ID 627 627 4058
The Agenda for the meeting can be found here,
https://t.co/7nsCdaIxWQ
Cuyahgoa BOE meeting has started at 9:35 AM. All members are in attendance.
@cledocumenters @NeighborUpCle
The Cuyahoga Board of Election's website is
This is a special meeting for the Certification of Audits from the November 3rd Presidential Election.
Join us by:
calling 1-646-558-8656 or
entering Zoom MEETING ID 627 627 4058
The Agenda for the meeting can be found here,
https://t.co/7nsCdaIxWQ
Cuyahgoa BOE meeting has started at 9:35 AM. All members are in attendance.
BREAKING: 54% say Pres. Trump should be charged criminally with inciting a riot for having encouraged his supporters to march on the Capitol, new @ABC News/WaPo poll finds.
BREAKING: Pres. Trump will leave office with a 38% job approval rating in new @ABC News/WaPo poll; 60% of the public disapproves, matching his peak disapproval in August 2018. https://t.co/jljkHh6pF0
JUST IN: 89% of Americans oppose the actions of those who stormed the Capitol, including 80% who are strongly opposed. Among Trump supporters, 76% are opposed, including 60% strongly opposed. https://t.co/jljkHh6pF0
BREAKING: Pres. Trumpâs career average approval rating is the lowest for any president in modern polling dating back to 1939. He is the first president in that time never to achieve majority approval at any point. https://t.co/jljkHh6pF0
JUST IN: 56% in new @ABC News/WaPo poll favor removing Pres. Trump from office and barring him from holding elected office againâexceeding the 47% who supported his removal in his first impeachment last year. https://t.co/jljkHh6pF0
BREAKING: Pres. Trump will leave office with a 38% job approval rating in new @ABC News/WaPo poll; 60% of the public disapproves, matching his peak disapproval in August 2018. https://t.co/jljkHh6pF0
JUST IN: 89% of Americans oppose the actions of those who stormed the Capitol, including 80% who are strongly opposed. Among Trump supporters, 76% are opposed, including 60% strongly opposed. https://t.co/jljkHh6pF0
BREAKING: Pres. Trumpâs career average approval rating is the lowest for any president in modern polling dating back to 1939. He is the first president in that time never to achieve majority approval at any point. https://t.co/jljkHh6pF0
JUST IN: 56% in new @ABC News/WaPo poll favor removing Pres. Trump from office and barring him from holding elected office againâexceeding the 47% who supported his removal in his first impeachment last year. https://t.co/jljkHh6pF0
