For my followers who aren't experts on middle eastern politics, here's a summary and explanation of all that stuff I've been tweeting about for the last few days - Turkey, Gare, all that stuff.

Gare is a mountain in the autonomous region of Kurdistan, in Northern Iraq (also known as Başur, or South Kurdistan). It's held by the Kurdistan Worker's Party (PKK), a formerly Maoist group who share an ideology with the YPG. They're pretty great.

Last week the Turkish Army launched an operation in the area, bombarding it with planes and dropping troops from helicopters. They're a long way from home here, and had to rely on the bases of local collaborators to launch the attack.

The initial assault appears to have gone badly, with Turkish troops forced to retreat some way down the mountain. A second front, seemingly aimed at preventing PKK reinforcements from arriving, may have been more successful.

The full aim of the operation isn't clear. They may have hoped to cut Gare from other nearby mountains, and they may have been trying to destroy specific facilities. The only thing we're sure of is that an attempt was made to free a group of high value POWs.

1) A LOT of balls in the air today on Capitol Hill, as is per usual here in December.

The House is expected to vote on a short-term spending bill today to avoid a government shutdown this weekend. Remember, this was supposed to be the easy part of the puzzle.

2) There are dozens of unresolved issues. So the new deadline for government funding will be 11:59:59 pm on December 18.

It’s possible the Senate could take up the stopgap funding bill today. But unclear. That may have to wait until tomorrow.

3) The Senate could also vote today to align with the House and pass the final version of the defense bill. But that could wait until tomorrow or even next week.

A veto override fight is brewing on this with President Trump.

4) The House scored WELL above the two-thirds necessary to override Mr. Trump’s threatened veto. In fact, the vote total last night went well above what the House had to approve the initial version of the legislation in the summer.

5) Based on the Senate’s vote total on the original version (86 yeas), senators should have the necessary votes to sync with the House and override the President later this month.

Congress has never overriden one of President Trump’s eight vetoes.

"Multiple European security officials told Insider that President Donald Trump appeared to have tacit support among US federal agencies responsible for securing the Capitol complex in Wednesday's coup

"Today I am briefing my government that we believe with a reasonable level of certainty that Donald Trump attempted a coup that failed when the system did not buckle." - NATO Intelligence official

Yikes on bikes.

"The French police official said they believed that an investigation would find that someone interfered with the deployment of additional federal law-enforcement officials on the perimeter of the Capitol complex...

"...the official has direct knowledge of the proper procedures for security of the facility."

We know that:

1) Sund told Representatives that he had requested additional National Guard back-up. That did not happen.
2) National Guard was deployed for "traffic control" at...

...the Capitol perimeter. Though this was a fairly small number of Guard troops, none were deployed to help inside the perimeter.
3) Additional Guard support was delayed by Sec. of Army Ryan McCarthy, Sec. Def. Christopher Collins, and allegedly by Trump himself for 90 minutes.

I reckon a lot of you probably view me as a crazy left winger. And that may well be fair, but if you’re wondering how I got here , I’m gonna have a crack.
In my 20s I had pretty much zero interest in politics. I grew up in Central Qld, surrounded by conservative influences.

Towards the end of the Howard years I began to feel that what he was doing wasn’t right, probably starting when they changed the rules retrospectively in the wharfie dispute. But it was even more troubling when he began adopting Hanson’s racist immigration views, and children

Overboard was a shameful chapter in racist dog whistling. I was disappointed that he spent the proceeds of the mining boom on Johnny’s Battlers instead of future proofing our economy and building a sovereign wealth fund. His failure to implement any sort of climate policy was

His biggest failure though, in my opinion. Despite that, I admired his guts with the gun reform he achieved following Port Arthur.
It was with renewed hope that I rode the #Kevin07 wave to a change in government. I felt hopeful that Australia was going to be a world leader in

The fight against climate change. How disappointed I was, as Rudd and the Greens completely botched a golden opportunity. Then Rudd showed a streak of cowardice I still cannot comprehend after miners spent a few bucks on tv ads attacking the RSPT. Julia jumped in the hot seat

1) All of us are disgusted & fed up with the Republican Party (except a few perpetual grifters in DC).

2) There are calls for a new "Patriot" or "MAGA" Party. I get it. Good intentions. But there are structural reasons why a new party will fail & why we have to take over the GOP

3) When I say "structural" some people gloss over that as if it's unimportant.

It's fundamental. You don't build a house on a bad foundation. If you set up a commerce site, you have a structure as to how you take payments.

You may wish you could go outside that structure . . .

3) contd . . . but if you want your money, you have to either work in the structure or completely obliterate the site. You can't have two competing sites for your money.

4) Likewise if you want to get in your house, you may have 20 keys, but the car key usually won't let you in

5) The structural basis of parties is unchangeable. It was set in the 1820s by Martin Van Buren as a way to protect slavery with the DemoKKKrat Party. But it's also embedded in the Constitution with the "winner take all/single member district" system of representation.

6) This has resulted in a 200-year-old system that is set in place. First, Van Buren, to get people to support a party that would protect slavery, had to reward them with something big.

Jobs.

He created the "spoils system" of rewarding loyalists with party & gubment jobs.

1/Zach has the history right (again). I doubt the current political leadership read the book where Summers et al explained what they did, unless they look at borrowed copies. Here it is: https://t.co/4gyFiagaj3

2/ But the summary is that Summers, Geithner, Orszag, Emanuel agreed on telling Obama and Biden in December 2008 that about $800b was an adequate stimulus. Would lower unemployment just below 8% by late 2010. Romer thought $2.1T or $1.7T was needed to achieve full employment.

3/ They wouldn't let her make the case in writing for $1.2T because her number could leak. The reasons for $800b were: they wanted the bill passed by February, so they could move on to health care reform and cap and trade; they had no ways to spend more;

4/ spending more might kick off inflation or cause markets to fall for fear of inflation; that might lead to more bank runs; more bank runs might require a second TARP so they couldn't ask Congress for too much for recovery; Pelosi would give them whatever they asked

5/ for but they didn't think they could get the needed 1 or 2 R Senators quickly if they asked for more; they wanted 60 but had only 58 D Senators; popular "moonshots" or signature items in the package would take too long (Biden asked for that);

President Trump speaking momentarily.

The purpose of this thread will be to transcribe his remarks live to the extent possible.

View of the crowd.

Photos

God be with you all.

Thread – Does the Buck Really Stop with Mike Pence?

1. A pal sent me this Facebook post by “Rod D. Martin.” I pass it along as food for thought in the frenzy leading up to the “great expectations” of 6 January.

2.

We absolutely must resist the massive fraud which has just been perpetrated on our country. But at the same time, we must not grasp at hopes which are not hope.

3. Some believe that the Constitution grants Vice President Mike Pence almost magical powers to overturn the improperly certified election "results" from the stolen swing states. They base this on just one clause, plus a lot of internet rumor.

4. This is the relevant sentence, from the 12th Amendment: "The President of the Senate shall, in the presence of the Senate and House of Representatives, open all the certificates and the votes shall then be counted."

5. The [various] theories being articulated freight this clause with a shocking amount of weight. Where, for instance, does this clause state that Mike Pence's rulings are unappealable?

Thread:

10/24/2018 Request for Information on the Dominion Voting system:

https://t.co/NCSMkKnoME

https://t.co/Od5IZ3fECG

Table of Contents

Background 3.1
• Election Managmnt System: Global Election Management System (“GEMS”)
• In Person Voting Machines: AccuVote R6 and AccuVote TsX (“DREs”)
• Precinct Scanners & Tabulators: AccuVote-OS
• Statewide Electronic Pollbook System: ExpressPoll 4000 and ExpressPoll 5000

"During absentee in person voting, voters are able to vote in any early voting location in their county. Georgia would like to keep this option for early voting in any new system. On election day, voters must vote at their assigned precinct."

Equ. rights 14th amendment violaton?

3.2 Statistics
Polling Places: Approximately 2,365
DREs: Approximately 27,000
Precinct Scanners & Tabulators: Approximately 800
Registered Voters: Approximately 6,700,000 (92% Active Status; 8% Inactive Status)
Ballots Cast in November 2016 General Election: 4,165,405

Check out Mrs. Young's words:

"I voted for Mayor Lightfoot after she came to my church because I believed in her as a Black woman."

Lori Lightfoot is a horrible human being. Not only did she attempt to do the same thing as her white predecessor &

withhold video of white police terrorizing a black person, but she lied about seeing the video and "falsely denied her administration withheld footage of the raid from Ms. Young." So miss me with this bullshit that somehow black life is safer under black politicians...

If statutorily possible, black Chicagoans should immediately launch a recall election to remove Lightfoot from office. She should never again be allowed to occupy public office. Put simply, black life isn't even safe under black leadership....

Just ask the family of Rashard Brooks why black Atlanta mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms is blocking their settlement negotiations regarding the white cop who murdered Brooks in a Wendy's drive through parking lot. I need you to comprehend precisely what Lorraine Hansberry was saying..

when she said "all my skin folk aint my kinfolk." Black people have little 2 show for their black leadership. White supremacy is so sinister that it often puts black faces on white horror. Hence, U often get the same, if not worst outcomes even when black folks are figureheads...

A couple of months back I put together a thread on 🇨🇳 along with @17Commentary and @GemmaSilent. When I cleaned up my account, I deleted it. I feel it is quite relevant now so I am going to repost it here.

Weve seen so much come to light since I first posted this ➡️

Latest: The Trump administration made a series of surprising moves regarding Asia policy over the last week, while @JoeBiden revealed the candidate for the new role overseeing Indo-Pacific region. I talked to @kharisborloff about what these mean:

"With less than a week from leaving the office, the Trump administration has been making some major moves regarding Washington’s policies for Asia Pacific."

"On January 9, U.S. Secretary State Mike Pompeo announced that the U.S. would scrap all existing limitations on interaction between Taiwanese and U.S. officials and on January 12, the White House declassified a security paper related to the Indo-Pacific Strategy."

"Some experts think that the Trump administration’s latest move to declassify the national security paper is to put the Biden administration on the spot."

"Kharis Templeman, an advisor to the Project on Taiwan and Indo-Pacific at Stanford University’s Hoover Institute, said following the declassification, if the Biden administration wants to disavow parts of the Indo-Pacific strategy in the future, they will have to do it publicly.

It takes guts to truly face hard truths. But facing them is the only way to protect oneself going forward. This is why I keep reminding people that the Republican Party is beyond repair. 1/

The Republican Party’s internal structures, at the state and federal level, are dominated by people actively opposed to democratic pluralism, rule of law, and U.S. constitutionalism. 2/

Once a political party refuses to drop its support for a leader, in this case Donald Trump, who constantly and consistently betrayed the country throughout his time in office that party cannot be salvaged as a player in U.S. constitutional democracy. 3/

Everybody else, from individual rank and file Democrats to President Joe Biden, must radically overhaul how they deal with people who do not disaffiliate from the Republican Party. 4/

Anybody who remains a Republican at this point must be presumed to be an enemy of U.S. constitutionalism, rather than as somebody with right wing policy views. 5/

1) Have given some thoughts on a new party. Using MN DFL as an example, I think each state should have a Patriot Party, and there should be a national party called AMERICA FIRST PARTY.

2) In practice, Michigan Patriot Party fields its statewide candidates and...

You're hearing a lot of talk about "irregularities" in the election of 1876 that led to a "disputed" outcome. What is being referred to in this hazy terms?

Across the state of South Carolina, white conservatives had used terror and massacre to deter former slaves from voting in 1876. Here's the story of an attack upon the small town of Hamburg in July

Hundreds of black South Carolinians were killed by white conservative militias. Blacks fought back in many places, but they were out-gunned.

The killings were not spontaneous outbursts. They were part of planned campaign of anti-black voter

Some of the elements of the conservative plan to suppress black votes in South Carolina in 1876 sound queasily familiar in our own time, adjusting for the antique language and technology.

But back of it all was terror and violence, more violence than could be contained by the limited federal forces in the area - who were anyway constrained by the white conservative Democratic House majority elected in 1874.

BREAKING NEWS: Trump May Be Planning to Leave Country 24 Hours Before He Loses Immunity From Prosecution

"Prestwick Airport has been told to expect the arrival of a US military Boeing 757 aircraft which has been occasionally used by Trump, on January 19."

(PS) With Scotland going into lockdown, I don't know if this is a realistic option for Trump. But every major media report we've gotten for the last 2 months has said that Trump is almost *preternaturally* obsessed with losing his immunity from criminal prosecution on January 20.

(PS2) I've repeatedly said that—based upon my experience with 2,000+ criminal defendants—I don't believe that Trump would flee the country unless he believed he was facing imminent arrest (which, to be very clear, I don't think he believes). But this story is real and intriguing.

(PS3) The proper course of action now is for media to find out if Trump will be leaving the country at the moment that he loses his immunity from criminal prosecution. That is *also* the proper frame for the story—given what we know to be Trump's state of mind and preoccupations.

(PS4) The other, concurrent news story to at least keep in mind here is that Trump is in a legal dispute with his neighbors in Florida over whether he can reside at Mar-A-Lago. It gives him the perfect excuse to say that he needs to spend a few months at his property in Scotland.

I think about the reports that Trump was excited by the invasion of the capitol because he thought it would derail the count, and it makes me think of a quote from the movie Boondock Saints: "Television. Television is the explanation for this. You see this in bad television."

In reality, there was zero chance that a violent assault on the capitol would have changed the outcome of the election, unless it was our own military doing it. An actual *physical* coup without military support? No.

And in fact, in reality, the more "successful" the assault was, the less likely it would be to affect the outcome. Had they succeeded in executing a congressperson on TikTok or whatever? They'd have killed their movement.

I believe that if they hadn't interrupted the process, the objections and debate would have been more successful in prolonging the process. But because of them, half the senators got cold feet and the remaining ones didn't even use their debate time.

Because they were attacked in their own chambers, because they were interrupted, it became a point of patriotic pride for Congress to finish the vote last night. Without that push, the objectors could have stretched it out, potentially for days.

I don't think that "Democrats were cowards and couldn't stand up to McConnell" is the correct framing. Dems clearly made a political calculation. Plenty to potentially criticize about that calculation, but it was informed by factors unrelated to generalized "fear of republicans"

What we largely know now:
-There would never have been enough GOP votes to convict
-GOP had the power to hold up *all* Senate business & that means COVID relief (Dems would have been blamed for this hold up)
-Witnesses were uncooperative & would have had to have been subpoenaed

So I think the correct framing is that Democrats made a political calculation that the benefit of adding witnesses (who would not change the outcome) was not worth the political & moral cost of holding up COVID relief, as well as important confirmations. . . .

This calculation can be criticized on its own merits, but it's categorically different than just being scared of McConnell & the GOP.

For my own part, I think an error Democrats made w/r/t witnesses was not calling cooperative police officers who had been attacked that day. Just a few personal narratives from the police would have deeply embarrassed the GOP. That's a missed opportunity, in my view.

Alright, I'm going to explain this one more time because I keep getting tweets like "people who vote for politicians who let them die of hypothermia deserve to die of hypothermia."

The people who voted red in Texas are, by and large, relatively fine right now. Yes, the storm has hurt them but the storm was going to hurt everyone.

But. They're either rich enough that *their* power wasn't cut off or rural enough that they have fireplaces and wood and wells.

Those millions without power are in places like Dallas county and Tarrant county and Harris county, I.e., the urban places that have the highest concentration of blue voters.

So it's not "(all/most) people voted for hypothermia and now they will fittingly die of hypothermia".

It's "(certain) people voted for the folks in cities to die of hypothermia, and they are, while the aforementioned voters are safe and dry and relatively comfortable."

Well, gosh, why don't those voters *do something* rather than passively being killed??

Do you know how many people live in Harris county? 4 million. Do you know how many ballot drop-off boxes they were allocated last election? 1.

1 box for 4 million people.