BREAKING NEWS: Trump May Be Planning to Leave Country 24 Hours Before He Loses Immunity From Prosecution

"Prestwick Airport has been told to expect the arrival of a US military Boeing 757 aircraft which has been occasionally used by Trump, on January 19."

(PS) With Scotland going into lockdown, I don't know if this is a realistic option for Trump. But every major media report we've gotten for the last 2 months has said that Trump is almost *preternaturally* obsessed with losing his immunity from criminal prosecution on January 20.
(PS2) I've repeatedly said that—based upon my experience with 2,000+ criminal defendants—I don't believe that Trump would flee the country unless he believed he was facing imminent arrest (which, to be very clear, I don't think he believes). But this story is real and intriguing.
(PS3) The proper course of action now is for media to find out if Trump will be leaving the country at the moment that he loses his immunity from criminal prosecution. That is *also* the proper frame for the story—given what we know to be Trump's state of mind and preoccupations.
(PS4) The other, concurrent news story to at least keep in mind here is that Trump is in a legal dispute with his neighbors in Florida over whether he can reside at Mar-A-Lago. It gives him the perfect excuse to say that he needs to spend a few months at his property in Scotland.
(PS5) To those wondering about the legal implications of Trump being in Scotland as or when a state indictment is issued against him—yes, of course Scotland has an extradition agreement with the United States. But getting Trump here would take much longer and forestall an arrest.
(PS6) I ask folks to please not misquote anything I have said in this thread. I am merely noting the confluence of several major media stories that require follow-up from American journalists. I make no prognostications here about the future whatsoever, nor do I aim to speculate.
(PS7) To those wondering why Trump would fly on a military plane on January 19 rather than January 20, of course Trump may lose access to certain military flights at noon on January 20. And—in theory—such a flight may be necessary to penetrate Scotland's new coronavirus lockdown.
(PS8) I'm an Occam's Razor analyst—so my assumption is that if indeed Trump is planning a trip to Scotland, it's simply so he can be out of the country as Biden is being feted as our new POTUS. I *don't* presume it is an extradition issue. But this story must be pursued by media.
(PS9) As for how a hypothetical extradition issue would be affected by the pandemic, Scotland being in lockdown, and global travel restrictions, I've no idea. As to whether Scotland could be a temporary waystation for Trump before he visits other (e.g. UAE) properties, who knows.
(PS10) The takeaway is that the possibility of state felony indictments against Trump in New York (James, Vance), Georgia (Willis) or elsewhere is real. And Trump's terror at this prospect is real and widely reported. So this story must be taken seriously. https://t.co/5nmXeVfV3W
(MAJOR UPDATE) THE DAILY BEAST: "According to a report from the Sunday Post, a lot of unusual US military activity has been recorded at one [Scottish] airport that just so happens to be very close to President Donald Trump’s flagship Scottish golf resort." https://t.co/AUVhnHcS5h
(NOTE) While likely no indictment will issue against Trump before January 19, state investigators could publicly request he not leave the country during the period he is under investigation. It's not binding—but would underscore him going to Scotland as a potentially dubious act.
(MORE) UK media is blowing up with this story. Here's more: https://t.co/BlyR3Z8APa
(MORE2) Per an INDEPENDENT (UK) source, the unusual U.S. military movements near Trump's property in Scotland are "usually a sign Trump is going to be somewhere [abroad] for an extended period." I don't know what "extended" means in this context, but it'll get a lot of attention.
(NOTE2) I've never been in the camp that thought MBS, MBZ, Erdogan, or Putin would shelter Trump against a federal case—angering Biden's administration is a no-go for all four. Letting Trump stay abroad while he domestically fights local prosecutors via his lawyers? Sure—why not.

More from Seth Abramson

(EXCERPT) PROOF OF COLLUSION drops in 3 weeks. Here's the second set of excerpts from this 450-page, 1,650-endnote book. 4 more excerpts will be released each Monday until the book's November 13 release. I hope you'll RETWEET and consider preordering here: https://t.co/z0ep5wUW9h


2/ For those who missed the first set of excerpts from PROOF OF COLLUSION, they can be seen in the tweet below—click on the link to see the tweet. For the link to preorder PROOF OF COLLUSION, see my currently pinned tweet or the link in my Twitter profile.


PS/ To see a larger, more readily readable version of any of these excerpts, right-click and download the picture to your desktop. Then open the file and it will be much larger and easier to read.

BONUS FACT/ In the last excerpt, I refer to "any aide with whom Trump shared the classified intelligence he received in the [August 17, 2016] briefing." Well you might wonder—who did he share it with? Answer: we don't know.

But we DO know who was WITH HIM at the briefing: FLYNN.

BONUS FACT 2/ According to Mother Jones and Washington Post reporting, then, we know Flynn attended the August 17, 2016 briefing at which Trump was informed of Russian aggression, and THEREAFTER—but BEFORE the election—engaged in clandestine contacts with the Russian ambassador.

More from Politics

My piece in the NY Times today: "the Trump administration is denying applications submitted to the United States Citizenship and Immigration Services at a rate 37 percent higher than the Obama administration did in 2016."

Based on this analysis: "Denials for immigration benefits—travel documents, work permits, green cards, worker petitions, etc.—increased 37 percent since FY 2016. On an absolute basis, FY 2018 will see more than about 155,000 more denials than FY 2016."
https://t.co/Bl0naOO0sh


"This increase in denials cannot be credited to an overall rise in applications. In fact, the total number of applications so far this year is 2 percent lower than in 2016. It could be that the higher denial rate is also discouraging some people from applying at all.."

Thanks to @gsiskind for his insightful comments. The increase in denials, he said, is “significant enough to make one think that Congress must have passed legislation changing the requirements. But we know they have not.”

My conclusion:
39.1% of Democrats think that it's wrong to negatively stereotype people based on their place of birth... AND that Southerners are more racist. https://t.co/yp1hviLuBB


65.2% of Republicans think that people shouldn't be so easily offended... AND that Black Lives Matter is offensive.
https://t.co/znmVhqIaL8


64.6% of Democrats think that a woman has the right to do what she wants with her body... AND that selling organs should be illegal.

48.5% of Democrats think that a woman has the right to do what she wants with her body... AND that prostitution should be illegal.


57.9% of Republicans think that people should be free to express their opinions in the workplace... AND that athletes should not be allowed to sit or kneel during the national anthem. https://t.co/ds2ig1NJFr


Democrats: Men and women are equal in their talents and abilities. Also, women are superior. https://t.co/bEFSmqQguo
All the challenges to Leader Pelosi are coming from her right, in an apparent effort to make the party even more conservative and bent toward corporate interests.

Hard pass. So long as Leader Pelosi remains the most progressive candidate for Speaker, she can count on my support.


I agree that our party should, and must, evolve our leadership.

But changed leadership should reflect an actual, evolved mission; namely, an increased commitment to the middle + working class electorate that put us here.

Otherwise it’s a just new figure with the same problems.

I hope that we can move swiftly to conclude this discussion about party positions, so that we can spend more time discussing party priorities: voting rights, healthcare, wages, climate change, housing, cannabis legalization, good jobs, etc.

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