https://t.co/JSNC0mN7h2
Alright, folks. You may have seen that the FDA was in a fight with distilleries last week.
Let's unpack what happened, why it happened, and why it's now resulting in some extremely unusual behavior by HHS.
Thread below. Follow if you're interested.
https://t.co/JSNC0mN7h2
It basically sounded like "no good deed goes unpunished by the government." Reddit's take:
https://t.co/N75y14ZSvb
So let's look at what did happen, and you can decide for yourself where the blame lies.
Hand sanitizer is regulated as an over-the-counter (OTC) product. Under that regulatory approach, entities which adhere to an FDA "monograph" may market an OTC drug without obtaining explicit FDA approval.
Here's the sanitizer monograph: https://t.co/OicqzGEhvF
So on March 20, 2020, FDA released a new policy intended to help alleviate those shortages.
https://t.co/MobkmU2g5F
This policy was commonly understood to primarily target distillers of alcohol.
This requirement is longstanding and typically applies to traditional drug manufacturers.
- it allows the FDA to know the identities of all companies that make drugs
- Helps FDA conduct inspections and safety surveillance
- Indicates which companies owe fees to FDA
These fees are used to help fund the FDA, and make up more than half of its overall budget.
- Application fees, assessed each time a company wants FDA to review a new drug or medical product, and
- Facility fees, assessed on an annual basis and used to offset the costs of inspections and routine regulatory work.
But never for nonprescription (OTC) drugs.
As a result, OTC companies had to register, but didn't have to pay fees.
March 20, 2020. That's when FDA released its guidance document.
A week later, on March 27th, Congress passed the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act.
This is where things get interesting.
It also established a user fee program called the OTC Monograph Drug User Fee Program (OMUFA). https://t.co/A6ued6pmRo
Here's the relevant explanation from my writeup for AgencyIQ:
That changed on December 29, when FDA announced the OMUFA fees for FY2021: https://t.co/zkcfavN8xs
And because distilleries had been required to register, that would now include distilleries, too.
Some had even donated these supplies, meaning they would have lost even more $.
https://t.co/ekIkzjs3lf
This actually has a pretty simple answer: Congress.
Basically: Congress gives FDA a formula, and tells it to use the formula to determine the fees. (This formula is usually signed off by industry groups prior to passage, as it was here).
Those *do* exist for other user fee programs.
Given that it had 45 days to do so, that seemed like a possible timeline.
https://t.co/jM5Ox8BjVr
https://t.co/F1mqF1zZ07
Proof: https://t.co/ZflKfKtS6J
The order: https://t.co/TWIsTB3F8n
OTC groups I spoke with are... not pleased.
It applies a basic formula to determine what the annual fee should be by taking a base amount mandated by Congress and then dividing by the number of active facilities.
Alternatively, anything that HHS doesn’t like is “significant” and therefore a “legislative rule.”
The only online version I could find was here: https://t.co/DpaKdsQp24
You can read it here: https://t.co/TWIsTB3F8n
Folks, this is not how government normally works. Now, this isn’t the first time that FDA and HHS have been at odds in recent weeks…
See my colleagues @DanDiamond and @DavidALim’s story: https://t.co/bf3E3oRAOc
So withdrawing them just punts the issue down the road.
- Public Health Emergency waiver
- First-time-filer waiver
- Small business waiver
Easy fixes that wouldn’t be difficult to implement and are common to other programs.
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Ironies of Luck https://t.co/5BPWGbAxFi
— Morgan Housel (@morganhousel) March 14, 2018
"Luck is the flip side of risk. They are mirrored cousins, driven by the same thing: You are one person in a 7 billion player game, and the accidental impact of other people\u2019s actions can be more consequential than your own."
I’ve always felt that the luckiest people I know had a talent for recognizing circumstances, not of their own making, that were conducive to a favorable outcome and their ability to quickly take advantage of them.
In other words, dumb luck was just that, it required no awareness on the person’s part, whereas “smart” luck involved awareness followed by action before the circumstances changed.
So, was I “lucky” to be born when I was—nothing I had any control over—and that I came of age just as huge databases and computers were advancing to the point where I could use those tools to write “What Works on Wall Street?” Absolutely.
Was I lucky to start my stock market investments near the peak of interest rates which allowed me to spend the majority of my adult life in a falling rate environment? Yup.
Decoded his way of analysis/logics for everyone to easily understand.
Have covered:
1. Analysis of volatility, how to foresee/signs.
2. Workbook
3. When to sell options
4. Diff category of days
5. How movement of option prices tell us what will happen
1. Keeps following volatility super closely.
Makes 7-8 different strategies to give him a sense of what's going on.
Whichever gives highest profit he trades in.
I am quite different from your style. I follow the market's volatility very closely. I have mock positions in 7-8 different strategies which allows me to stay connected. Whichever gives best profit is usually the one i trade in.
— Sarang Sood (@SarangSood) August 13, 2019
2. Theta falls when market moves.
Falls where market is headed towards not on our original position.
Anilji most of the time these days Theta only falls when market moves. So the Theta actually falls where market has moved to, not where our position was in the first place. By shifting we can come close to capturing the Theta fall but not always.
— Sarang Sood (@SarangSood) June 24, 2019
3. If you're an options seller then sell only when volatility is dropping, there is a high probability of you making the right trade and getting profit as a result
He believes in a market operator, if market mover sells volatility Sarang Sir joins him.
This week has been great so far. The main aim is to be in the right side of the volatility, rest the market will reward.
— Sarang Sood (@SarangSood) July 3, 2019
4. Theta decay vs Fall in vega
Sell when Vega is falling rather than for theta decay. You won't be trapped and higher probability of making profit.
There is a difference between theta decay & fall in vega. Decay is certain but there is no guaranteed profit as delta moves can increase cost. Fall in vega on the other hand is backed by a powerful force that sells options and gives handsome returns. Our job is to identify them.
— Sarang Sood (@SarangSood) February 12, 2020