In Past 1 year various Commodities & Chemicals have spiked & fired up quite a few stocks 🔥

Let’s look at how the stocks have performed vs the commodity / chemical price move from May 2020 - May 2021 🚀

Listing down a few points on each in the below thread 👇

Steel +80%

JSPL +303%
Tata Steel +300%
JSW Steel +334%
SAIL +340%

✔️Strong Chinese demand & focus on reduction in carbon emissions.
✔️Domestic Steel prices still at a 15% discount vs imported
✔️Top 5 Cos increased market share
✔️Cos continue to deleverage their balance sheets
Gold 12%

Muthoot Finance & Manappuram Finance +50%

✔️Increased loan book growth as they lend more & get operating leverage
✔️Reduced auctions of pledged Gold = less NPAs
✔️RBI relaxed LTV for gold financiers to 90% from 75% = level playing field for Banks & NBFCs
Silver & Zinc +50%
Lead +35%

Hindustan Zinc +120% [only silver play in 🇮🇳]

✔️Silver contribution EBITDA likely to hold above 25% vs historic 15% to 20%
✔️Silver gets a higher multiple (10x EV/EBITDA) vs Zinc-Lead (7x EV/EBITDA)
✔️Healthy cash balance & solid dividend paying
Copper +80%

Hindustan Copper +700%

✔️Only direct beneficiary of rising Copper prices
✔️Hindalco & Vedanta exposure is limited to ‘TcRc margins’
👉TcRc: Treatment Charge and Refining Charge

👉Need to note that: GOI + LIC + Institutions hold 90% in co so float is limited
Aluminium +70%

Nalco +159%

✔️Nalco is a pure & direct play on Aluminium & Alumina prices
✔️Though Alumina prices have been range bound & moved just 20%
✔️But its Aluminium business has turned from a loss to a profit
✔️In Q3FY21 contributed near 47% of EBIT
TDI (Toluene diisocyanate) +50%

GNFC +300%

✔️Co is into fertilisers & chemicals, however most of its profits come from chemicals
✔️TDI has cooled off a bit but other chemicals like Methanol, Acetic & Nitric acid made by GNFC are 🚀
✔️TDI is a vital raw material for mattress
ABS (Acrylonitrile Butadiene Styrene) +120%

BEPL +330%
Ineos +130%

✔️In 🇮🇳 ABS is being manufactured by Bhansali Engineering & Ineos
✔️Aided spreads moved to lifetime highs
✔️ABS is used in the automobile & home appliances
✔️Lower imports from Korea aided Indian ABS Producers

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In the spring and summer of 2016, as reported by the Times, activity we traced to GRU was reported to the FBI. This was the standard model of interaction companies used for nation-state attacks against likely US targeted.

In the Spring of 2017, after a deep dive into the Fake News phenomena, the security team wanted to publish an update that covered what we had learned. At this point, we didn’t have any advertising content or the big IRA cluster, but we did know about the GRU model.

This report when through dozens of edits as different equities were represented. I did not have any meetings with Sheryl on the paper, but I can’t speak to whether she was in the loop with my higher-ups.

In the end, the difficult question of attribution was settled by us pointing to the DNI report instead of saying Russia or GRU directly. In my pre-briefs with members of Congress, I made it clear that we believed this action was GRU.