Guy in 1989: "Wow, those Nifty Fifty investors were so stupid."
Same guy in 1999: "Yes, a 250 P/E makes sense for Cisco."

Guy in 2011: "Wow, those tech bubble investors were so stupid."
Same guy in 2021: "Yes, 25x sales and a 450 P/E makes sense for a car company."

I thought this was a great quote from Charlie Munger: investors chasing the latest cyclical trend often forget that "the old cyclicality is going to come back"

(From @williamgreen72's "Richer, Wiser, Happier" book)

Do you know below companies were Most Valuable top 10 companies in India between 1995 to 2010..??

Where are they now? What CAGR returns did they generate? Why?

- Century Textiles
- Brooke Bond
- Hindalco
- Tata Communications
- IDBI Bank
- Indian Hotels
- Satyam Computer

(1/2)

- NIIT
- Zee Entertainment
- Indian Oil
- Himachal Futuristic
- Reliance Infra
- RCOM
- Suzlon Energy
- DLF
- Unitech
- Reliance Power
- Sterlite
- Jindal Steel
- Cairn India
- Coal India

This is how survivorship bias can be studied..

#investing #TechnoFunda

(2/2)

Patience and conviction

At @CapitalAurum our endeavour is to read the cycle of various industries, locate turnarounds and put bets on undervalued stocks. We gather various data points, not necessarily always captured with conventional methods.

@jitenkparmar
@niteen_india

1/n

This has lead us to get into the turnarounds in many companies and industries. In late 2018 and early 2019, one such visible trend was cement cycle when it was not going through the best of the time.

@jitenkparmar
@niteen_india
2/n

We recommended 2 stocks in a span of 3 months in Dec 2018 and Feb 2019 at around Rs 270 and Rs330 levels respectively. We started with 3% allocation in each ie 6% in cement sector.

@jitenkparmar
@niteen_india

3/n

The drawdown happened. We saw a max draw-downs of 31% & 45% resp. during the fall of Mar 2020. This fall was much lower than the overall fall in Mid and Small cap indices in Mar 2020. In a way they outperformed the indices and helped our PF too.

@jitenkparmar
@niteen_india
4/n

As time progressed and we continued to get confirmations on our parameters, we increased the allocation in the sector. The current allocation is 12%. The average price of both the stocks remained closer to the initial buy price.

@jitenkparmar
@niteen_india

5/n

Some stocks are undervalued just because they underperformed in down cycle than their peers. The key thing to note is that they will outperform their peers in up cycle.

To sum up, try to find undervalued market leaders who underperformed because of down cycle of the sector.

Good time to buy is when a theme or segment is ignored by the market and not when it is popular.

When you buy what is popular when it is popular, need to forego returns for few years.