It is hard to overstate what a catastrophic failure the Govt & SAGE’s policy of continual restrictions & lockdown has been.

Not only has it caused economic devastation & misery for millions, it has not stopped high rates & surges in infections, hospitalisations & deaths.

Over the past 6 months, UK governments have tried mask mandates, curfews, local restrictions, regional restrictions, tiers, short *firebreaks*, national lockdowns, stricter tiers, extra tiers.

All have caused enormous costs yet look where we are at with Covid. Time to rethink.
“But it’s just obvious that lockdowns will work."

It’s past the time to indulge in wishful thinking about what you think *must* or *should* happen. Like it or not, we have to face reality: the continual lockdown/restriction cycle has failed on every possible measure.
“But things would have been even worse without the restrictions”

Hard to see how but, if you believe that, where is the evidence? e.g. have places with lighter restrictions had demonstrably worse Covid outcomes? Switzerland, Denmark, Sweden, Norway, Florida, Brazil?
“But it would have been different if we’d locked down more things/earlier/longer …”

More collateral damage & misery for certain, but where is the evidence Covid outcomes would be better? Look at Belgium, Italy, Peru, Spain, Czechia, New York, Illinois, France, Argentina.
“But New Zealand!”

Long term (& continued) border closures & extreme lockdown in an isolated island nation before the virus was endemic: whether you agree or disagree with what NZ did, it was just not relevant for the UK situation last March and certainly not now.
“But what’s your alternative?”

Please think that question through. If the lockdown strategy creates huge costs and doesn't help with Covid, it needs to be stopped whether or not there is anything else the Government should do.
Whatever side of the lockdown debate people have been on, to continue with this strategy despite the clear evidence of how badly it has failed is not just reckless but criminally negligent.
Eventually we need a proper inquiry into the advice SAGE has given but the urgent thing now is to reverse some of the most damaging measures: school closures, retail, hospitality & sporting shutdowns & the use of criminal law to stop families meeting up.
Can I end with a plea to journalists?

When ministers, scientists, union & council leaders push for more school closures & even tighter restrictions, at least provide *some* challenge on why we shd believe measures that have failed so disastrously up to now will succeed this time

More from Health

Before we get too far into 2021, I thought I’d write a thread recapping some of the research that came out of my lab in 2020. Most of this work was led by my talented team of graduate students, Kerrianne Morrison, @kmdebrabander, and @DesiRJones.

Back in January, a news story was published about Kerrianne’s study showing improved social interaction outcomes for autistic adults when paired with another autistic partner.

A detailed thread about the study and a link to the paper can be found here (feel free to DM me your email address if you’d like a copy of the full paper for this study or any of our studies):


Another paper published early in 2020 (it appeared a few months earlier online) showed that traditional standalone tasks of social cognition are less predictive of functional and social skills among autistic adults than commonly assumed in autism research.


Next, @kmdebrabander led and published an innovative study about how well autistic and non-autistic adults can predict their own cognitive and social cognitive performance.
🚨Important changes to lockdown/self-isolation regulations from 5pm

The Health Protection (Coronavirus, Restrictions) (All Tiers and Self-Isolation) (England) (Amendment) Regulations 2021

£800 'house party' FPN & police can now access track & trace data

https://t.co/k9XCpVsXhC


“Large gathering offence”

As trailed by Home Secretary last week there is now a fixed penalty notice of £800 (or £400 if you pay within 14 days) for participating in an gathering of over 15 people in a private residence


Fixed Penalty Notices double for each subsequent “large gathering offence” up to £6,400

Compare:
- Ordinary fixed penalty notice is £200 or £100 if paid in 14 days
- Holding or being involved in the holding of a gathering of over 30 people is £10,000


Second big change:

Since September has been a legal requirement to sell-isolate if you test positive/notified by Track & Trace of exposure to someone else who tested positive

Police can now be given access to NHS Track & Trace data if for the purpose of enforcement/prosecution


This will make it easier for police to enforce people breaking self-isolation rules. Currently there has been practically no enforcement.

Data says only a small proportion of people meant to be self-isolating are fully doing so.

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First thread of the year because I have time during MCO. As requested, a thread on the gods and spirits of Malay folk religion. Some are indigenous, some are of Indian origin, some have Islamic


Before I begin, it might be worth explaining the Malay conception of the spirit world. At its deepest level, Malay religious belief is animist. All living beings and even certain objects are said to have a soul. Natural phenomena are either controlled by or personified as spirits

Although these beings had to be respected, not all of them were powerful enough to be considered gods. Offerings would be made to the spirits that had greater influence on human life. Spells and incantations would invoke their


Two known examples of such elemental spirits that had god-like status are Raja Angin (king of the wind) and Mambang Tali Arus (spirit of river currents). There were undoubtedly many more which have been lost to time

Contact with ancient India brought the influence of Hinduism and Buddhism to SEA. What we now call Hinduism similarly developed in India out of native animism and the more formal Vedic tradition. This can be seen in the multitude of sacred animals and location-specific Hindu gods