There are two issues with the English variant, as it is now referred. One issue is "what it could do" and the other issue is "what it could represent". They are both important and we know just enough to make hyphoteses that can drive to experiments. I'll try and explain 1/

Let's start with the latter: what does it represent? Mutations happen all the time and variants have been recorded in the thousands. The website below shows several 1000s different variants recorded in different countries. Why is this SO special? 2/

https://t.co/5MLzlcnJRh
The most special aspect of this variant is that the number of changes it shows is a large disconnect from its parental line as if this lineage made a big sudden jump rather than the usual slow progress to which we are used. 3/
There are a few (certainly not many) scenarios that are compatible with this jump and one of them is the one in which the virus has tried to escape its way out from an organism that had a static and relatively weak immune response.

4/
Such an organism is an immunosuppressed patient who tries to fight the infection with injections of donated plasma from a recovered patient. Someone who cannot produce antibodies and can be helped with plasmapheresis from a donor who could. 5/
In that organism, you would witness evolutionary pressure. The virus that is sensitive to the antibodies being injected would die: a random mutant who can escape that immune response would survive just enough to try and replicate. 6/
What kind of virus could survive that scenario? Well, one that 1) can go undetected by that antibody mix; 2) can replicate fast enough to outnumber the antibody chase. or 3) a mix of 1 and 2. The B.1.1.7 shows both features, on paper, hence the hypothesis of how it was born. 7/
Now, let's go back to point number 1. What can it do? Well, now that the hypothesis of its creation is clear, it should also be clear what it could do. It could lead to reinfections and it could spread much faster than the parental line. 8/
Data on the prevalence of this new strain clearly show it has outnumbered the parental strain in the wild, alarmingly quickly. In evolutionary terms, it means it has higher fitness than its competitors (viruses compete with each other not just with us). 9/
https://t.co/eTDTCvbYOh
This has happened 1) everywhere in the country 2) in a period in which other strains were circulating and competing and 3) in a period of relative lockdown. Very different from what happened in the summer with the Spanish variant. 10/
So, the working hypothesis is that this strain is much faster than the parental line and can spread more easily. Is it more virulent too? We will know in the next weeks, but for now, the only answer possible is "we don't know". No point making public predictions. 11/
Can it lead to reinfections? In principle, it could. Remember we said it may have evolved escaping antibodies against the old virus. However, if this strain were to re-infect a normal, non-immunocompromised person, it would be met with the usual adaptive response 12/
New antibodies would form and it would be treated just like another virus (assuming virulence did not change).
13/
Can escape vaccines? Well. Vaccines were all designed to elicit the very same antibody mix this virus has learned to escape so yes, in principle it could. However, it is unlikely that they would be completely ineffective. 14/
A possible scenario is that efficacy will be lower than the 95% we have learned to celebrate. This scenario opens new outlooks on how we should select future vaccines: not simply looking at efficiency in the trial but taking into account the real world 15/
Lower efficiency, coupled with an increase in R would make the target of herd immunity very difficult to reach. 16/
So, we must continue the effort at vaccinating the world being aware that this shot will not be the end of it. We are entering a flu-like scenario, in which we will need a yearly jab. 17/
Finally, a note on what "it could happen". This episode shows this virus has a good capacity to evolve. Evolution rate, not mutation rate is what really matters at the end of the day. Stop worrying about "mutations" and start learning about evolution.
https://t.co/T7IXQn5RQy 18/
Also, we must stop giving from granted some convenient beliefs, like the one that this virus is lethal almost only for the elderlies. Yes, it is now, but that should not be a laissez-passer for everyone. 19/
IMO this should be seen as the last nail in the coffin for exoteric declarations saying we should try to reach herd-immunity. We shall not. We shall avoid giving the virus every chance to mutate into something that will hit the fan. 20/END

More from Health

Some thoughts on this: Firstly, it might be personal preference, but I am not keen on this kind of campaign as I feel like it trivialises cancer. Sometimes the serious message gets lost because people are sharing pics of cats or whatever and the important context is gone.


More importantly, the statistic being used in the campaign is misleading. It says 57% of women put off cervical screening if they can't get waxed. But on further investigation, that's not accurate.

The page here goes on to say "57% of women who regularly have their pubic hair professionally removed would put off attending their cervical screening appointment if they hadn’t been able to visit a beauty salon."

So the 57% represents a concern not across the whole population of women, but only those who regularly get waxed. So how big of an issue is this across the whole population? And what else is stopping people getting smears?

I think campaigns for cancer screening are really tricky because there is so much nuance that often doesn't fit into a catchy headline or hashtag. It's certainly not easy and is part of a bigger conversation.

You May Also Like

The entire discussion around Facebook’s disclosures of what happened in 2016 is very frustrating. No exec stopped any investigations, but there were a lot of heated discussions about what to publish and when.


In the spring and summer of 2016, as reported by the Times, activity we traced to GRU was reported to the FBI. This was the standard model of interaction companies used for nation-state attacks against likely US targeted.

In the Spring of 2017, after a deep dive into the Fake News phenomena, the security team wanted to publish an update that covered what we had learned. At this point, we didn’t have any advertising content or the big IRA cluster, but we did know about the GRU model.

This report when through dozens of edits as different equities were represented. I did not have any meetings with Sheryl on the paper, but I can’t speak to whether she was in the loop with my higher-ups.

In the end, the difficult question of attribution was settled by us pointing to the DNI report instead of saying Russia or GRU directly. In my pre-briefs with members of Congress, I made it clear that we believed this action was GRU.
Margatha Natarajar murthi - Uthirakosamangai temple near Ramanathapuram,TN
#ArudraDarisanam
Unique Natarajar made of emerlad is abt 6 feet tall.
It is always covered with sandal paste.Only on Thriuvadhirai Star in month Margazhi-Nataraja can be worshipped without sandal paste.


After removing the sandal paste,day long rituals & various abhishekam will be
https://t.co/e1Ye8DrNWb day Maragatha Nataraja sannandhi will be closed after anointing the murthi with fresh sandal paste.Maragatha Natarajar is covered with sandal paste throughout the year


as Emerald has scientific property of its molecules getting disturbed when exposed to light/water/sound.This is an ancient Shiva temple considered to be 3000 years old -believed to be where Bhagwan Shiva gave Veda gyaana to Parvati Devi.This temple has some stunning sculptures.