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This column by @jackmintz raises some concerns as a potential policy response to the expected cancellation of the KXL permit.

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First, Dr Mintz cites numbers for direct and indirect jobs created by KXL for both Canada and USA. It isn’t clear where these numbers came from or if they are permanent jobs. Methods for calculating induced jobs are notorious for their unreliable and non-robust methodology.

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Second, Dr Mintz proposes that Canada retaliate with duties and other trade restrictions, as what happened with aluminum. However, KXL is very different, and this changes the scope of available responses, especially under our trade agreements.

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Canada viewed the US duties on aluminum and steel as violating trade agreements. The retaliatory duties were permitted under those agreements as a response to those violations. They are not permitted in response to cancelling KXL.

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It is also somewhat odd to see an economist arguing for a trade war in any event, especially one tat would be initiated by a small, trade-exposed economy against a much larger economy. No one wins in a trade war.

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"You know you are in the Upside Down when a famous human-rights organisation petitions your government to disenfranchise you and members of your group, to stop you from engaging in peaceful actions and voicing your concerns and opinions."


"If any man can fill out a form, as is the case in Ireland, and legally become a woman ‘for all purposes’, that is not a legal fiction. That is an access-all-areas pass for predators...

...This is not to say that trans-identified people are predators. But it is to say, if predators went through the seminary to gain access to victims, are we to believe they would not fill out an A4 form?"

"That is the essence of self-ID: it affirms the wishes of the trans-identified person. Even if they are a rapist..Or a man who wants access to female-only spaces for the buzz of the transgression. This system is harmful to all of society – including genuine transsexuals."

"We do not accept that males, regardless of how they identify, should have access to female toilets, changing rooms, hospital wards or refuges. This is not a conservative viewpoint. This is the fundamental basis on which we order society."
THREAD
There’s much debate around the UK's recommended use of the AZ vaccine with a two-dose schedule and flexible timing of second dose. Some thoughts on the AZ recommendation (not Pfizer) based on available data with refs to some excellent threads.


UK’s MHRA and JCVI are highly-experienced in vaccine assessments and recommendations, and they've surely weighed the benefits & risks of this recommendation carefully. That said, it would be good to see all the data underpinning their recommendation.


In general, vaccines should be taken on a schedule tested in an efficacy trial. But it wasn’t possible to conduct the typical dose and schedule optimization prior to these Ph3 trials, and those trials provided valuable data to inform these recommendations. 3/

The UK recommends a two-dose schedule, with the second dose between 4-12 weeks. This *is not* a single dose schedule. Given the data provided, and in the setting of limited supply, overstretched hospitals, and emergence of a more transmissible variant, this seems justifiable. 4/

The UK has important data on the AZ Vx that wasn’t available for Pfizer & Moderna at FDA's VRBPAC, including:
* single-dose efficacy through 4+ months; and
* single-dose immunogenicity (12+ weeks).
This issue is, appropriately, contentious. As a vaccinologist - & citizen & relative of people in at-risk groups - I fully support the UK decision to increase dose intervals of both our Ox/AZ product and the Pfizer product. I'd happily receive either with a >8w gap. Here's why 🧵


For the Ox/AZ vaccine, it's fairly simple. The trial demonstrated efficacy at a range of dose intervals. Antibody responses after the boost were significantly stronger with longer intervals - see table

(so in response to @drmarkporter's point, higher immune responses with a longer interval is proven & now public. I haven't seen a similar analysis for efficacy against disease but the data exists and I suspect the regulators & JCVI committee have)

For Pfizer, there isn't direct evidence of efficacy with a >3wk interval. But as widely publicised, efficacy in the period from 14 days after first dose to 21 days is high.


Can we extrapolate from this to a longer interval? It's a judgment call. On one hand is evidence-based medicine's scepticism of anything not directly proven 'beyond reasonable doubt' in an RCT; on the other is a 'balance of probabilities' approach based upon the biology.
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