This is a must-read article by @mlipsitch and @kesvelt and I strongly agree with the central points: we urgently need to step up genomic surveillance & get transmission down now in the US while these are rare.

But a couple things to expand on from a virology point of view.

The piece talks about the B117 variant as if it’s not SARS-CoV-2, but it is. B117 is distinguished by 23 changes across the genome, but it’s still fundamentally the same virus. It’s a different variant (some are calling it a strain depending on how that’s defined).
But 23 nucleotide changes aren’t sufficient to make this a completely different virus. So we are still fighting SARS-CoV-2. Just a new and improved version. Improved how? Well it’s more transmissible but the mechanism isn’t yet known.
When viruses become more transmissible it can happen in a few different ways:
-virus can be more fit (replicate to higher titers, hence more shedding)
-virus can replicate more efficiently in specific tissues (like the nose)
-spike can bind the receptor more efficiently and...
...thus infect host cells more efficiently
-virus can get better at evading/antagonizing innate host antiviral defenses
-increased environmental stability
-people can shed virus for longer periods of time
These are just some of the possibilities. It could be one or a combination of these mechanisms and that research is underway. But it doesn’t mean the virus is transmitted in fundamentally different ways/routes. It’s a variant, not a new virus!
But what is important is that it is clearly more transmissible. If you are exposed to a person infected with B117 you have a much higher risk of being infected. We need to address this urgently while it’s still rare.
And as the article points out, we need to increase genomic surveillance to monitor B117, and detect 501Y.V2 or any other worrisome variants that emerge, especially as vaccination ramps up.
As more people are vaccinated (and more people recover from COVID) there will be increased selection pressure for variants that can evade neutralizing antibodies against variants from earlier in the pandemic.
So far, preliminary data suggests that the most worrisome mutation in the B117 S receptor binding domain doesn’t affect antibody neutralization from Pfizer-vaccinated sera but this needs more study.
But this is something we need to monitor, and we can’t do that with S-dropout PCR. Only genomic surveillance coupled with robust epi as advocated in this piece will allow us to do that.
And it’s worth repeating: variants result from mutation. Mutation occurs when the virus replicates. To prevent new variants from emerging or prevent variants like B117 from further adaptation, take away the virus’ opportunity to replicate.
That means stop transmission to new hosts. Fewer new cases=less replication=less mutation=fewer variants emerging.
So, as the article says, we need to reduce community transmission, increase surveillance and test/trace capacity, and address this while still rare. We need to take this seriously BEFORE it becomes a huge problem in the US.
The good news is that it’s not likely B117 has developed the ability to be transmitted by new, different routes. It’s still transmitted by aerosols, droplets, and to a lesser degree fomites.
Mutation does not confer superpowers. Viruses can’t evolve to transcend physical barriers like masks or walls. A coronavirus can figuratively sharpen its spikes, but it can’t use them to defy the laws of physics.
For individual people, that means redouble your efforts to reduce exposure risk by implementing as many as possible:
-stay home
-avoid gatherings
-avoid crowds
-avoid shared air/enclosed spaces
-masks
-distance
-ventilate when possible
-wash hands
-disinfect high-touch surfaces
And this is going to be unpopular, but a circuit-breaker stay-home period would probably be the most effective way to address this in the short-term. That can only happen with substantial economic support. I urge the incoming Biden administration to consider that.

More from Government

Which metric is a better predictor of the severity of the fall surge in US states?

1) Margin of Democrat victory in Nov 2020 election
or
2) % infected through Sep 1, 2020

Can you guess which plot is which?


The left plot is based on the % infected through Sep 1, 2020. You can see that there is very little correlation with the % infected since Sep 1.

However, there is a *strong* correlation when using the margin of Biden's victory (right).

Infections % from
https://t.co/WcXlfxv3Ah.


This is the strongest single variable I've seen in being able to explain the severity of this most recent wave in each state.

Not past infections / existing immunity, population density, racial makeup, latitude / weather / humidity, etc.

But political lean.

One can argue that states that lean Democrat are more likely to implement restrictions/mandates.

This is valid, so we test this by using the Government Stringency Index made by @UniofOxford.

We also see a correlation, but it's weaker (R^2=0.36 vs 0.50).

https://t.co/BxBBKwW6ta


To avoid look-ahead bias/confounding variables, here is the same analysis but using 2016 margin of victory as the predictor. Similar results.

This basically says that 2016 election results is a better predictor of the severity of the fall wave than intervention levels in 2020!

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Ivor Cummins has been wrong (or lying) almost entirely throughout this pandemic and got paid handsomly for it.

He has been wrong (or lying) so often that it will be nearly impossible for me to track every grift, lie, deceit, manipulation he has pulled. I will use...


... other sources who have been trying to shine on light on this grifter (as I have tried to do, time and again:


Example #1: "Still not seeing Sweden signal versus Denmark really"... There it was (Images attached).
19 to 80 is an over 300% difference.

Tweet: https://t.co/36FnYnsRT9


Example #2 - "Yes, I'm comparing the Noridcs / No, you cannot compare the Nordics."

I wonder why...

Tweets: https://t.co/XLfoX4rpck / https://t.co/vjE1ctLU5x


Example #3 - "I'm only looking at what makes the data fit in my favour" a.k.a moving the goalposts.

Tweets: https://t.co/vcDpTu3qyj / https://t.co/CA3N6hC2Lq
#ஆதித்தியஹ்ருதயம் ஸ்தோத்திரம்
இது சூரிய குலத்தில் உதித்த இராமபிரானுக்கு தமிழ் முனிவர் அகத்தியர் உபதேசித்ததாக வால்மீகி இராமாயணத்தில் வருகிறது. ஆதித்ய ஹ்ருதயத்தைத் தினமும் ஓதினால் பெரும் பயன் பெறலாம் என மகான்களும் ஞானிகளும் காலம் காலமாகக் கூறி வருகின்றனர். ராம-ராவண யுத்தத்தை


தேவர்களுடன் சேர்ந்து பார்க்க வந்திருந்த அகத்தியர், அப்போது போரினால் களைத்து, கவலையுடன் காணப்பட்ட ராமபிரானை அணுகி, மனிதர்களிலேயே சிறந்தவனான ராமா போரில் எந்த மந்திரத்தைப் பாராயணம் செய்தால் எல்லா பகைவர்களையும் வெல்ல முடியுமோ அந்த ரகசிய மந்திரத்தை, வேதத்தில் சொல்லப்பட்டுள்ளதை உனக்கு

நான் உபதேசிக்கிறேன், கேள் என்று கூறி உபதேசித்தார். முதல் இரு சுலோகங்கள் சூழ்நிலையை விவரிக்கின்றன. மூன்றாவது சுலோகம் அகத்தியர் இராமபிரானை விளித்துக் கூறுவதாக அமைந்திருக்கிறது. நான்காவது சுலோகம் முதல் முப்பதாம் சுலோகம் வரை ஆதித்ய ஹ்ருதயம் என்னும் நூல். முப்பத்தி ஒன்றாம் சுலோகம்

இந்தத் துதியால் மகிழ்ந்த சூரியன் இராமனை வாழ்த்துவதைக் கூறுவதாக அமைந்திருக்கிறது.
ஐந்தாவது ஸ்லோகம்:
ஸர்வ மங்கள் மாங்கல்யம் ஸர்வ பாப ப்ரநாசனம்
சிந்தா சோக ப்ரசமனம் ஆயுர் வர்த்தனம் உத்தமம்
பொருள்: இந்த அதித்ய ஹ்ருதயம் என்ற துதி மங்களங்களில் சிறந்தது, பாவங்களையும் கவலைகளையும்


குழப்பங்களையும் நீக்குவது, வாழ்நாளை நீட்டிப்பது, மிகவும் சிறந்தது. இதயத்தில் வசிக்கும் பகவானுடைய அனுக்ரகத்தை அளிப்பதாகும்.
முழு ஸ்லோக லிங்க் பொருளுடன் இங்கே உள்ளது
https://t.co/Q3qm1TfPmk
சூரியன் உலக இயக்கத்திற்கு மிக முக்கியமானவர். சூரிய சக்தியால்தான் ஜீவராசிகள், பயிர்கள்