Their roll-out gives good reasons to believe 2021 will see a dramatic turnaround of the pandemic.
2020 has been a devastating year. We could all do with some good news.
Here are some of @CrisisGroup’s 10 reasons for hope in 2021.
Their roll-out gives good reasons to believe 2021 will see a dramatic turnaround of the pandemic.
https://t.co/gKvY9NNabr
See @CrisisGroup’s research on the complex relationship between conflict and climate ☟
https://t.co/NIIoQztPK1
There are many obstacles on the road ahead, but the current negotiations between the Afghan government and the Taliban represent the country’s best shot at peace in a generation.
https://t.co/WVh6NfZE7W
Trading began in the new continent-wide single market on 1 January 2021 and offers important long term prospects for reducing conflict in Africa.
The murder rate has fallen spectacularly, giving citizens hope that 2021 heralds an end to the long-running cycle of violence. The lull is thought to be the result of secret talks between gang leaders and populist president Bukele.
2020 brought the U.S.-Iran tensions close to boiling point but with a new administration in Washington, the two countries are in a position to restore compliance with the nuclear deal and seek to de-escalate regional tensions.
https://t.co/b9Q5GWDV8t
An alignment of positive factors - a ceasefire, less belligerent regional actors, war fatigue - gives hope – albeit fragile – that the cycle of violence that began in 2011 might come to a close.
More from Government
The Government is making the same mistakes as it did in the first wave. Except with knowledge.
A thread.
The Government's strategy at the beginning of the pandemic was to 'cocoon' the vulnerable (e.g. those in care homes). This was a 'herd immunity' strategy. This interview is from
This strategy failed. It is impossible to 'cocoon' the vulnerable, as Covid is passed from younger people to older, more vulnerable people.
We can see this playing out through heatmaps. e.g. these heatmaps from the second
The Government then decided to change its strategy to 'preventing a second wave that overwhelms the NHS'. This was announced on 8 June in Parliament.
This is not the same as 'preventing a second wave'.
https://t.co/DPWiJbCKRm
The Academy of Medical Scientists published a report on 14 July 'Preparing for a Challenging Winter' commissioned by the Chief Scientific Adviser that set out what needed to be done in order to prevent a catastrophe over the winter
A thread.
The Government's strategy at the beginning of the pandemic was to 'cocoon' the vulnerable (e.g. those in care homes). This was a 'herd immunity' strategy. This interview is from
Government #coronavirus science advisor Dr David Halpern tells me of plans to \u2018cocoon\u2019 vulnerable groups. pic.twitter.com/dhECJNbmnI
— Mark Easton (@BBCMarkEaston) March 11, 2020
This strategy failed. It is impossible to 'cocoon' the vulnerable, as Covid is passed from younger people to older, more vulnerable people.
We can see this playing out through heatmaps. e.g. these heatmaps from the second
Here are the heatmaps for Covid detected cases, positivity, hospitalizations, and ICU admissions. This is for the week to 3 January 2021.
— Dr Duncan Robertson (@Dr_D_Robertson) January 7, 2021
I have marked a line on 21 September, when SAGE recommended a circuit breaker, so you can see how the situation has deteriorated since then. pic.twitter.com/SEEVgUVK4j
The Government then decided to change its strategy to 'preventing a second wave that overwhelms the NHS'. This was announced on 8 June in Parliament.
This is not the same as 'preventing a second wave'.
https://t.co/DPWiJbCKRm
The Academy of Medical Scientists published a report on 14 July 'Preparing for a Challenging Winter' commissioned by the Chief Scientific Adviser that set out what needed to be done in order to prevent a catastrophe over the winter
One thing civil servants learn is to write things down. Here is @acadmedsci's 14 July report commissioned by @uksciencechief. For the record.
— Dr Duncan Robertson (@Dr_D_Robertson) September 17, 2020