2020 has been a devastating year. We could all do with some good news.

Here are some of @CrisisGroup’s 10 reasons for hope in 2021.

1. Vaccines. Several vaccines developed in record time have already been approved against #COVID19.

Their roll-out gives good reasons to believe 2021 will see a dramatic turnaround of the pandemic.
2. Return to diplomacy. After 4 years of the Trump era’s erosion of multilateralism and tensions among the P5, the Biden administration could help restore U.S. engagement in multilateral conflict resolution efforts and at the Security Council

https://t.co/gKvY9NNabr
3. Climate. The U.S. is likely to rejoin the Paris Agreement and lead a renewed charge to fight climate change and its destructive consequences.

See @CrisisGroup’s research on the complex relationship between conflict and climate ☟
https://t.co/NIIoQztPK1
4. In Afghanistan, ongoing peace talks could lead to meaningful progress.

There are many obstacles on the road ahead, but the current negotiations between the Afghan government and the Taliban represent the country’s best shot at peace in a generation.

https://t.co/WVh6NfZE7W
5. The African Continental Free Trade Area.

Trading began in the new continent-wide single market on 1 January 2021 and offers important long term prospects for reducing conflict in Africa.
6. A decline in gang violence in El Salvador.

The murder rate has fallen spectacularly, giving citizens hope that 2021 heralds an end to the long-running cycle of violence. The lull is thought to be the result of secret talks between gang leaders and populist president Bukele.
7. Diplomacy U.S.-Iran.

2020 brought the U.S.-Iran tensions close to boiling point but with a new administration in Washington, the two countries are in a position to restore compliance with the nuclear deal and seek to de-escalate regional tensions.

https://t.co/b9Q5GWDV8t
8. A ceasefire in Libya.

An alignment of positive factors - a ceasefire, less belligerent regional actors, war fatigue - gives hope – albeit fragile – that the cycle of violence that began in 2011 might come to a close.
9. A major EU budget deal.

Despite the economic downturn brought by the pandemic, the EU closed 2 years of negotiations culminating in a 1.8 trillion budget confirming its commitments for global development, humanitarian relief, peacebuilding, and conflict prevention.
10. Our colleague Michael Kovrig, who is starting his third year in unjustified arbitrary detention in China, has received overwhelming support, including at the UN Security Council.

Our most pressing wish for 2021 is his release.

More from Government

The Government is making the same mistakes as it did in the first wave. Except with knowledge.

A thread.


The Government's strategy at the beginning of the pandemic was to 'cocoon' the vulnerable (e.g. those in care homes). This was a 'herd immunity' strategy. This interview is from


This strategy failed. It is impossible to 'cocoon' the vulnerable, as Covid is passed from younger people to older, more vulnerable people.

We can see this playing out through heatmaps. e.g. these heatmaps from the second


The Government then decided to change its strategy to 'preventing a second wave that overwhelms the NHS'. This was announced on 8 June in Parliament.

This is not the same as 'preventing a second wave'.

https://t.co/DPWiJbCKRm


The Academy of Medical Scientists published a report on 14 July 'Preparing for a Challenging Winter' commissioned by the Chief Scientific Adviser that set out what needed to be done in order to prevent a catastrophe over the winter

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