Welp.

Republican majority of the Pennsylvania State Senate just removed @JohnFetterman from the chamber. President Pro Temp Corman is presiding instead. Fetterman refused to recognize a motion that would have prevented a duly elected Democratic senator from being sworn in.

Fetterman did not leave the chamber or the rostrum so there are two people presiding. Fetterman is being ignored by the Republican senators in the majority. Corman is starting the certification of the results district by district.

Very ugly.
For background on what's happening, read @AngelasInk on the dispute: https://t.co/nEKuMZW17C
Under Corman's presiding, all results but in the 45th district were read. The election of Jim Brewster was not recognized. @SenTonyWilliams shouted the results in that race, showing Brewster's win, to the chamber as Corman moved to start the Republican senators' swearing in.
The Republican State Senator in Pennsylvania just set a very dangerous precedent: as long as your opponent refuses to concede, you will not be sworn in. No matter that the *highest court in the state* already said the election is Kosher.

Here they are being sworn in.
Corman is moving to administer the oath of office to Democratic senators. Brewster is on the floor.

Corman asking the judge to wait until Corman leaves.

Fetterman: Senator Brewster is the certified winner of his district!

Corman: he was not read

Williams: I read the results!
Jim Brewster, mensch, asked that all other Democratic senators be sworn in. He didn't want the issue around his election to take away from the celebratory nature of the day for others, according to Williams. They are sworn in, including @NikilSaval of Philadelphia.
I don't have the most experience in watching the Pennsylvania state senate but I can't say that I've *ever* seen something like what just happened. To be clear: the 45th district seat is *empty* as they are reading roll call now despite a certified election winner in the chamber.
Minority Leader Jay Acosta rises in opposition to Corman as President Pro Temp. He is talking about what just happened to Senator Brewster. Acosta makes a good point: Brewster's swearing in wasn't delayed but denied. There is no future date. The result was *certified*.
My colleagues @AngelasInk and @CynthFernandez have the write up on what just happened. Follow this link for updates and response. https://t.co/V06IBe5nIV
For those of you who aren’t super familiar with what’s going on in PA that makes all of this so much more mind bending: before covid the *Republican* majority enacted a major election reform bill that expanded vote by mail. *They* set the rules. Now *they* are crying foul.
This is the same dynamic that happened in the days after the elections.

Before the election, officials begged to count mail ballots *before* in-person polls close. Republicans said no.

Then Republicans said the delay in results is proof of fraud. https://t.co/nGKHUgMTLN
Jake Corman is sworn in as President Pro Temp of the Pennsylvania State Senate after kicking out of the chamber the President of the Senate Lt. Gov. Fetterman and refusing to seat Jim Brewster who won his elections. "Quite a first day," he jokes.

More from Government

Which metric is a better predictor of the severity of the fall surge in US states?

1) Margin of Democrat victory in Nov 2020 election
or
2) % infected through Sep 1, 2020

Can you guess which plot is which?


The left plot is based on the % infected through Sep 1, 2020. You can see that there is very little correlation with the % infected since Sep 1.

However, there is a *strong* correlation when using the margin of Biden's victory (right).

Infections % from
https://t.co/WcXlfxv3Ah.


This is the strongest single variable I've seen in being able to explain the severity of this most recent wave in each state.

Not past infections / existing immunity, population density, racial makeup, latitude / weather / humidity, etc.

But political lean.

One can argue that states that lean Democrat are more likely to implement restrictions/mandates.

This is valid, so we test this by using the Government Stringency Index made by @UniofOxford.

We also see a correlation, but it's weaker (R^2=0.36 vs 0.50).

https://t.co/BxBBKwW6ta


To avoid look-ahead bias/confounding variables, here is the same analysis but using 2016 margin of victory as the predictor. Similar results.

This basically says that 2016 election results is a better predictor of the severity of the fall wave than intervention levels in 2020!

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