In moving forward, the Ford government faces 3.5 problems. First, this PO statement means the Premier knew Phillips was in St. Barts at some point between Dec. 13 and Dec. 29. On what date? And when did PO know? Because ministerial travel is tracked/approved by PO/PMO #onpoli

More fundamentally, on the date that the Premier learned Phillips was out of the country - whenever it was - why wasn't Phillips ordered home immediately? Why was the Premier "disappointed" only after the public learned the news - Instead of when he learned it? #onpoli
These Qs are the most serious threat to Phillips because they raise the possibility that his interest might begin to conflict directly with the Premier's - and that usually spells your Waterloo. Ford will be reluctant to sack but he will if he must to make it all go away #onpoli
Second, those holiday social media posts by Phillips. They smack of an open attempt to leave the false impression Phillips was home when he obviously was not. Sure, you tape messages and sked posts in advance. But these are damning and have to be accounted for #onpoli
Which won't be easy. The, "we all make sacrifices" message - posted from a white sand paradise - is dead awful. Seems deliberate, deceptive and hypocritical. No way around that other to acknowledge it, own it and eat a full plate of shit. (Tip:DO NOT blame staff) #onpoli
Third, there's the "St. Barts" thing. It might seem like a detail but it's a big, quiet, implicit problem. The signal that specific destination communicates - the luxury, the expense, the out-of-all-imaginable-reach-for-most-people-of-it is very hard politics. #onpoli
Maybe that's unfair - if he can afford it what the hey. But, for a populist govt that peddles a "hey folks", lunchbucket brand of Conservatism it's just deadly. The next time someone around Ford moans about the elites and downtowners, St. Barts will be thrown right back #onpoli
In other words, it's as off-brand as it gets for this govt. And that's a problem for Phillips because it stirs resentment among his colleagues. Which is his "half" problem that's left lingering: caucus. They will hate this. Most of them hate defending the lockdown already #onpoli
Now they have to defend Phillips and St. Barts? They're not going to like that one damn bit. Chances are, some already resented his success: his easy entry into politics and broad influence over Ford. This will be like dropping a hornet's nest on top of all that. Way bad #onpoli
The takeaway is that Phillips will survive IF Ford is willing to spill all this external and internal political capital on him. But it's not going to be easy going and the effort required will stir more resentment. Phillips may live on but he'll be badly damaged. Badly. #onpoli

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A THREAD ON @SarangSood

Decoded his way of analysis/logics for everyone to easily understand.

Have covered:
1. Analysis of volatility, how to foresee/signs.
2. Workbook
3. When to sell options
4. Diff category of days
5. How movement of option prices tell us what will happen

1. Keeps following volatility super closely.

Makes 7-8 different strategies to give him a sense of what's going on.

Whichever gives highest profit he trades in.


2. Theta falls when market moves.
Falls where market is headed towards not on our original position.


3. If you're an options seller then sell only when volatility is dropping, there is a high probability of you making the right trade and getting profit as a result

He believes in a market operator, if market mover sells volatility Sarang Sir joins him.


4. Theta decay vs Fall in vega

Sell when Vega is falling rather than for theta decay. You won't be trapped and higher probability of making profit.
So the cryptocurrency industry has basically two products, one which is relatively benign and doesn't have product market fit, and one which is malignant and does. The industry has a weird superposition of understanding this fact and (strategically?) not understanding it.


The benign product is sovereign programmable money, which is historically a niche interest of folks with a relatively clustered set of beliefs about the state, the literary merit of Snow Crash, and the utility of gold to the modern economy.

This product has narrow appeal and, accordingly, is worth about as much as everything else on a 486 sitting in someone's basement is worth.

The other product is investment scams, which have approximately the best product market fit of anything produced by humans. In no age, in no country, in no city, at no level of sophistication do people consistently say "Actually I would prefer not to get money for nothing."

This product needs the exchanges like they need oxygen, because the value of it is directly tied to having payment rails to move real currency into the ecosystem and some jurisdictional and regulatory legerdemain to stay one step ahead of the banhammer.